A.I. … From Bad to Worse

January 29, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-03, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge

Adjusting The Trendline

Now, all-of-a-sudden, it’s a ‘thing’:

DeepSeek Breaks the AI Paradigm, link here.

YeaR OF THe SeeK…DeeP SeeK, link here.

The Competency Crash, link here.

DeepSeek AI App Demonstrates Pro-CCP Bias, Influence, link here.

The list is seemingly endless. Time for everybody to pile-on to the new narrative.

However, it does beg the question, Isn’t ‘The Thing‘ somewhere on I-10, in Arizona? 🙂

Getting back to reality, chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, we’re going to adjust the trendline (just a bit) from yesterday’s update.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

The objective is, maintain short, monitor the trend for potential break (and exit), wherever and whenever that may be (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s important to note, yesterday’s action was Spring-to-Up-Thrust; penetration of the prior day’s low and high.

Then, The Fed

Also note, we have the Fed coming up with more shenanigans in about two hours (as of 12:03 p.m., EST).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Melt-Down … The Day After

January 28, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Loeb, NVDA, Semiconductors, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXS-25-03, SOXX Tags: , , , ,

‘Real Opportunities Are Rare’ … Gerald M. Loeb

Now that one pillar of the A.I. mania has vaporized, ‘what’s next?’

To begin the search, let’s start with this headline from yesterday:

“No One Was Buying”: An Ominous Post-Mortem Of What Happened Today From Goldman’s Trading Desk, link here.

That may tell us all we need to know.

But of course, it can’t be that simple. We have to make it complicated with ‘experts’ piling on, pontificating about ‘earnings growth’, ‘multiples’ and the like.

However, did any of that play into identifying the SOXX reversal, almost to the day?

Short answer is, no.

So, why would it be a factor in determining the most likely (next) outcome?

With that, let’s take a look at the chart.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

It’s an aggressive viewpoint; that is, NVDA’s not going to fill the gap and is in the midst of a sustained down-move (not advice, not a recommendation).

If the A.I. bubble, potentially the largest bubble since the South Sea, imploded yesterday, the chart seems like a reasonable viewpoint (definitely not advice, not a recommendation).

Loeb & Focus

Few people talk about Gerald M. Loeb, late Vice Chairman for E.F. Hutton

He’s the one that said to ‘focus’ one’s efforts on the few and rare, real opportunities.

With that said, NVDA and the SOXX are moving now, while other market appears stagnant.

Therefore, the focus is on this sector (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nivida … ‘Shock-n-Awe’

January 27, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-02, SOXS-25-03, SOXX, Wyckoff

SOXX, Off-The-Cliff

Just two days ago, was this (emphasis added):

“The chart below, presents a possible ‘last gasp’ for the SOXX.”

Four days before that, was this:

” … what is shown, is a repeating phenomenon; Wyckoff, Spring-To-Up-Thrust.”

In effect, Wyckoff analysis gave us a ‘head’s up’ nearly a week ago, the SOXX may be about to reverse.

That was plenty of time to decide whether to position short or stand-aside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, this morning the (tech) market’s in a panic.

Over-the-weekend news about threats to Nvidia’s lock on A.I., with this and this resulted in futures opening lower Sunday night.

Then it got worse, link here.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily (line/close)

Let’s start first, with the last update.

Now, updated as of 10:53 a.m., EST.

On the daily bar-chart (not shown), we have a massive gap-lower open.

Will that gap be filled or is this a real breakaway and the start of a long-sustained bubble deflating decline?

That of course, is unknown.

What is known and presented on this site, Wyckoff analysis, with its century old technique, spotted the potential for reversal well ahead of the actual fact (not advice, not a recommendation).

Final Note

As the sidebar shows, since the beginning of this year, there have been several attempts to position short in the SOXX via leveraged inverse fund SOXS.

Trades SOXS-25-01 (not discussed), and SOXS-25-02, were first, then closed, with trade SOXS-25-03, opened last Friday (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate Rout … Dead Ahead?

January 26, 2025 By in DIA, Dow 30, DRV, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, IYR, Nasdaq, QQQ, Real Estate, S&P, S&P 500, SPY 1 Comment

Break, Test … and … Pause

Of course, in the markets, no one knows for sure.

However, what we do know as shown below, real estate IYR, has formed a terminating wedge.

In addition, it’s broken down from that wedge and is now testing the underside.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

With the Dow, S&P, and QQQs, at or near all-time-highs, real estate’s a laggard; posting its all-time-high, years ago.

Last week was a narrow-range bar.

On a daily basis, price action attempted to move higher twice and has retreated (from that attempt) each time.

Then, The Fed

Let’s not forget we have a Fed meeting coming up on Tuesday and Wednesday, this week.

Popcorn at the ready.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A.I. Bubble and Bubbles, Past

January 25, 2025 By in 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, Positions, QQQ, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-03, SOXX, Wyckoff 2 Comments

Once The Trend Was Broken

During the internet bubble of the 2000s, after the trend break in the QQQs, price action immediately began its long (multi-year) descent.

Naturally, it would follow when comparing that bubble, with the A.I. bubble, as was done here, one would have thought once the trend is broken, down we go.

Not so, today.

Instead, we have depending on how it’s measured, at least ten-weeks (so far), testing of that break.

Is it all about to change? Are we at ‘tests’ end?

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

The most recent update showing the ‘trend break’ as discussed above, is here.

The chart below, presents a possible ‘last gasp’ for the SOXX (not advice, not a recommendation).

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, the market ‘by its own action’, has told us the axis line above, is important.

If the chart is correct and we’ve had a false breakout (Wyckoff Up-Thrust), the expectation is for downside follow-through (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Hugs The Line

January 24, 2025 By in CVNA, SOXX

Morbid Curiosity

Is Carvana the ‘Enron’ of our time?

Back in the day, it seemed like Enron was everywhere.

Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser, sponsored by Enron, remember that?

At this point, it’s somewhat of a morbid curiosity to see how this all plays out.

Carvana CVNA, Weekly

This week was a short-range bar when compared to the week before.

Upward momentum appears to be slowing.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

UAL & Secret ‘Plans’

January 23, 2025 By in AAL, Airlines, DAL, Daniela Cambone, Ed Dowd, LUV, Positions, UAL, UAL-25-01, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Was It ‘Manipulation?’

Looking at United Airlines (UAL), with the precise set-up, four-year wedge, measured move, the top, timed exactly at an earnings release, you have to ask yourself …

Was it all part of a (secret) plan?

Wyckoff Writes on Manipulation

Way back in 1910, Wyckoff wrote the following concerning manipulation (emphasis added, quote used with permission).

“Manipulators are giant traders, wearing seven-leagued boots. The trained ear can detect the steady ‘clump clump’ as they progress, and the footprints are recognized in the fluctuations and quantities of stock appearing on the tape.”

United Airlines UAL, Weekly

When looking at the chart, it all makes sense … it just took over four years to play out.

As the last update said, ‘what now?’

All three major (largest cap) airlines are currently (flat to) lower; DAL, UAL, LUV (11:02 a.m., EST).

American Airlines (AAL), lower as well; it’s down a whopping -10%, just today

What does that mean?

Here’s an interview with Ed Dowd, just posted.

All of the damage inflicted over the years, is not going to be wiped-out with the stroke of a pen (to borrow a comment).

With that, one of the hardest industries to make a profit even in good times, are the airlines. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

United Airlines … Top & Reverse

January 22, 2025 By in Airlines, Positions, UAL, UAL-25-01

Then, The Earnings

Is United (UAL), about to hit an ‘air pocket’?

When we look at the earnings, it appears all is well, link here.

Of course, the article makes sure to tell us, UAL has ‘tripled’ in price; so, it has.

But what now?

Even as this post is being created (12:14 p.m., EST), UAL, is posting the makings of a decisive reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

United Airlines, UAL, Daily

There’s not much to say, there it is.

What’s not shown, today’s action is the top of a wedge measured move, going back to early 2021.

We’ll cover that later.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Tops (again)

January 21, 2025 By in Positions, SOXS, SOXS-25-02, SOXX 1 Comment

Repeating Pattern

The SOXX, continues to test (or follow) the underside of a trendline break dating back to mid-November, last year.

That line is not shown on the chart (at left), but what is shown, is a repeating phenomenon; Wyckoff, Spring-To-Up-Thrust.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Carvana ‘Confluence’

January 20, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg, KMX

Tale of Two Fibonacci’s

This update said to watch for a CVNA retrace to levels between 227 – 233.

Last Thrudsay’s action reached and slightly exceeded the target(s).

With all of that, we now have Carvana at a confluence of Fibonacci levels.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Note the corrective ‘a-b-c’ move to a Fibonacci 161.8%, projection.

That same corrective move is near the Fibonacci 61.8% retrace from the (recovery) high of 268.34, to the recent low 175.42, of January 3rd.

There’s so much ‘drama’ surrounding this equity that literally anything can happen.

Short interest (BigCharts) remains in the 10%, range; not moving appreciably in either direction for some time.

If the Hindenburg report is accurate, CVNA could vaporize at any time (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, that may not be the best use of CVNA’s (potential) woes.

Maybe a better opportunity is to think about what’s going to happen to all that inventory if things really go south.

How will that affect other competitors like CarMax?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279