Tag Archives: TLT

First, Real Estate … Now, Bonds

February 7, 2025 By in Bonds, DRV, DRV-25-04, Interest Rates, IYR, Positions, Real Estate, TLT Tags: , , , 1 Comment

Rates, Back on The Rise

Yesterday, was the reversal set-up for real estate (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, it’s bonds

The bond chart below shows TLT, in a near-perfect trading channel.

Long Bonds TLT, Weekly

In addition to the channel, there’s a Fibonacci time correlation.

Or course, this could be the week (or next) where bonds break out to the upside.

Anything can happen.

For now, price action remains in the down-channel.

The next item shows we’re potentially at some kind of transition point.

Retail, ‘All-In’

Behind the scenes, reports like this, tell us the ‘retail investor’, i.e., the least informed and least disciplined participant is literally, ‘all-in’ the market.

What could go wrong?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Market (TLT) Blowout

January 8, 2025 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, TBT, TLT Tags: , , ,

Massive ‘Exit’

Even the dog is getting out of the bond market 🙂

For long-time visitors, we see years of ‘strategy’, playing out in real time.

One tenet of that strategy is/was, the bond bull-market (TLT) is over. It’s a new paradigm (not advice, not a recommendation).

Repeat Post From 3/17/20

Nearly five years ago, was this:

Back then … “we may be at the all time top”.

Extreme or More

So, it’s taken nearly five-years for the market to reach the extreme discussed here.

Does that mean we’re at some kind of bottom? Is it really ‘tax related’ as suggested in the link?

That’s always possible.

However, an alternate view of what’s going on is here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Enough said.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bad News Bonds

December 26, 2024 By in Bonds, Dr. Elder, Interest Rates, TBT, TLT, Wyckoff Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Stealth Collapse

Does anyone (thinking) think, the debt is going to be repaid?

What does anyone (thinking) think the DOGE Brothers are all about, anyway?

Does anyone (thinking) think RFK-Jr., is after Froot Loops and food coloring?

‘Sleepwalking through the markets’, as Dr. Elder put it, years ago.

The market itself tells us the most likely outcome, the crux of Wyckoff analysis.

Right now, bonds (TLT) are telling us, down-pressure (rates up) continues to build (not advice, not a recommendation).

Long Bonds, TLT, Weekly

Will this time, be like last time?

Moving in closer on the weekly

We’re about thirty minutes from the regular session.

Bonds (TLT), are set to open lower, continuing the downward slide with rates pressuring on higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Seven-Year ‘Wedge’

December 15, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, Bonds, DHI, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-24-16, SPBIO, TLT, XBI Tags: , , , ,

Massive Top Formation

D.R. Horton, (DHI) is the largest cap in the Residential Construction Sector (www.tc2000.com).

During the last blow-up (2005 – 2008), DHI, declined top-to-bottom over -91%.

Will it be different this time?

One thing that’s likely, the next implosion could be hit with widespread market and broker outages (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last (notable) time was here.

As far as known, feel free to comment to the contrary, this site’s the only one that incorporates outage potential (and reality) into its trading plan.

Case in point is this link.

The firm’s trade records show, on that Monday, the account was short: LABD-24-16.

The broker outage and panic helped the position. The trade was closed on August 8th, with a profit of 11.15%.

Enough said, let’s move on.

D.R. Horton DHI, Monthly

There it is, seven-years in the making.

We’re at the lower wedge boundary now.

Recently, bonds (TLT) had a minor move higher (rates lower), lasting two-weeks.

However, last week, TLT reversed down and eclipsed the previous two-weeks of gains.

Rates are now moving higher … again.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘No Hurry’ for Lower Rates

November 17, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TBT, TLT Tags: , , , ,

Of Course, Not

The Fed’s not about to tell anyone, what they (really) do, is follow the bond market.

When looking at ETF proxy for long bonds, TLT (below), one could infer, by late January, Fed rates may start going back up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since we’ve entered a time where long secret (or obscured) truths are now revealed, it might just be, the public discovers (en masse) the emperor has no clothes.

Steve Poplar at ‘The Poplar Report’ has it figured out (time stamp 12:00, link here).

With that, let’s look at the bond market and see what it’s saying about itself.

Long Bonds, TLT, Weekly Close

Price action appears to be breaking down out of a wedge.

The potential?

Higher interest rates going into year-end (not advice, not a recommendation).

The result: fewer autos sold/financed, fewer homes sold/financed and possibly much less spending on Christmas.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Rate-ing Game

November 2, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TLT, ZeroHedge Tags: , ,

Rates Spike Big Time … Who Could Have Guessed?

Let’s use the ‘Way Back’ machine with Mr. Peabody and return to this post.

Back in mid-August, that analysis presented rates heading higher (not lower), as more probable.

One month after that, this update showed a ‘terminating wedge’ in the bond market, TLT.

Now, two and a half months after the first post, the rate spike’s hitting the news.

Once again, you have to ‘subscribe‘ to find out what’s already happened. Hmmm

Contrary Indicator

The fact rates are just now in the mainstream, could (as we’ll see below) indicate a potential hesitation of downside or an upside retrace.

Long Bonds TLT, Daily Close

We’ll start first with the original ‘wedge’ post.

Now, for the updated version.

Obviously, there’s a lot going on in the chart.

Price action blew-through the measured move and has (potentially) culminated in a downside wash-out.

Or, behind Door Number 2, it could be a signal, rates are about to press-on higher like a juggernaut (not advice, not a recommendation)

The Fed Rides Again

Remember our last post on the Fed (possibly reversing the reversal), said to get your popcorn ready.

Looks like the show’s about to start.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279