Monthly Archives: March 2025

Gold, Higher … Miners, Not

March 31, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GDXJ-25-01, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions, SILJ

Unresponsive

Sometimes, the question is not ‘what’s happening’, but ‘what’s not happening’.

In today’s case, we have gold (GLD) at new highs and the miners, not.

Not only are they not following gold higher, for the Juniors GDXJ, and the ‘Silvers’ SILJ, they both posted a new weekly low.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

Last Friday was a reversal bar.

Today (so far) we have gold at new all-time highs and the miners lagging (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post (12:54 p.m., EST), GDXJ, has moved up to test Friday’s low.

While price action retraces to test, it’s closing the gap on the amount of risk for a short position.

With that in mind, a direct short of GDXJ, has been opened (GDXJ-25-01) with the stop at (or to be) the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: As a result of the gold hysteria, YouTube grifting, book writing, podcast interviews, dollar collapse, and ‘It’s all coming down’ mania, instant gratification on this position is not expected. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … ‘Minority Report’

March 30, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Greg Hunter, SILJ 1 Comment

Huge Volume In GLL, Inverse Fund

Two opposing sides.

You’ll need to decide for yourself whether this report from yesterday, or this link from Greg Hunter, is the ‘minority report’.

Which one presents an accurate assessment of the market at this point, or are they both right?

A final check of Hunter’s site prior to release of this post, we find yet another interview on gold, link here.

On the first link (above), go to time stamp 12:50, for the gold miners.

For the second link, we have the entire 53-minutes.

With that, let’s look at the short side, what the speculators and professionals are doing.

Leverage Inverse 2X, (GLD), GLL, Daily

GLL, is 2-times the inverse of gold (GLD as proxy).

The update on March 14th, link here, showed a measured move target for GLD (blue arrow).

The chart above speaks for itself. As gold (GLD) moved higher past the measured move, with GLL continuing lower volume has increased dramatically.

Of course, this does not guarantee anything.

What it does tell us, is that someone, or some entities have all-of-a-sudden, started making bearish bets on gold (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … Good, Bad, & Ugly

March 29, 2025 By in Airlines, DIA, Dow 30, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Nasdaq, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SILJ, SOXX, SPY, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Three Amigos

The Good: Only the Senior Miners, GDX, have managed to claw their way past the highs set nearly five years ago in August of 2020.

The Bad: Junior Miners GDXJ, remain below that August ’20, level.

The Ugly: Silver Miners SILJ, are the worst, having their peak a bit later in February of 2021; they remain over -35%, below their highs.

The Market Rolls Over

Yesterday, Friday, was a down day for the Dow, S&P, The Qs, Transports, Airlines, Semis, nearly everyone.

For some of these indices, their all-time highs were posted months, if not years ago.

There may be some (bidding) ‘defensive’ action with gold (GLD) continuing higher; as said in earlier posts, the rest of the monetary metals are far below their highs.

Let’s look at the weakest; the silver miners, as they are likely going to be the ones most affected by an economic decline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver Miners, SILJ, Daily

We’re at an interesting spot.

Friday was a down day that pushed below existing support, shown in zoom area.

We have simultaneous action.

Once resistance was penetrated on March 18th, it could not hold. After eight trading days, on Friday, it posted lower on heavy volume.

However, we can see that SILJ, is now in (a minor) Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. So, the question is, what happens next?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s Short-Interest Drops

March 28, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA 1 Comment

After The Top, Lower

Even as price reached its after-hours high of 310, on February 19th, and posted down ever since, short interest continues to decline.

As BigCharts reports, short-interest is now at 6.5%.

First, it was 33% short, then it dropped to 10%, then 7.8%, and now 6.5%, all the while, it looks like we’ve passed the top (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last update showed a trading channel that has since been negated. So, what’s price action doing now?

Carvana CVNA, Daily

As of this post (10:47 a.m., EST) price action has yet to define another channel … if there is one.

What we do have, is a Fibonacci time sequence in effect thus far.

At this juncture, we’re far away from the magenta (target) oval and Fibonacci Day 34.

However, as outlined by Car Questions Answered, this time of the year, typically has tax refund purchasing.

So, there’s a (possible) tailwind to the upside.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech’s … ‘Axis of Six’

March 27, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-05, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, XBI 1 Comment

A Number Recurring Trough Time

You’ll have to judge for yourself if the chart with closing numbers and axis line, are of importance.

As a reminder, let’s not forget where the S&P bottomed, in 2009.

‘The S&P hit a low of 666, intraday’

With that, this update will be brief.

Biotech Sector Index, SPBIO, Daily Close

We’re using the actual index (SPBIO) and not the XBI, ETF, typically traded as a proxy.

After hours (as of 6:53 p.m., EST) has the ETF, XBI, trading unchanged to slightly lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana: Waiting For The Signal

March 26, 2025 By in CVNA 1 Comment

All Quiet … So Far

Today’s action shows us supply is building and/or, profits are being taken, or it’s an outright reversal.

The last update presented a possible (short) target.

This update shows how action may get there; via an aggressive trading channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

One question to ask, is this:

‘If I was (already) short this market, where would I put my stop?’

If your eyes instantly go to 240 – 245, (purple oval), well, that’s where everybody else has (likely) put theirs. 🙂

Carvana CVNA, Daily

It’s around mid-session (12:25 p.m., EST) and CVNA, is just touching the right-side channel line.

Anything can happen and CVNA could break down.

However, from a risk reduction standpoint, the target area shown appears to offer the best short potential (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Breakout ‘Uncertainty’

March 25, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter, LABD, LABD-25-05, Positions, SPBIO, XBI 2 Comments

No-Man’s Land

The markets don’t like uncertainly and that’s just what we have with biotech.

As the chart shows, the question becomes; is it a trend breakout, a breakout and test or a breakout, test, then possible failure?

This interview with Ed Dowd just days ago, paints a bearish picture for the overall markets.

If so, and we apply that scenario to biotech, the odds don’t seem to favor the upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, let’s get to the action.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Last Friday, the 21st, was Fibonacci Day 89, from the November 11th, 2024, highs.

If the trendline is in-effect, meaning the market’s hanging in mid-air in a false breakout, getting back into that trend may result in some dramatic downside action.

On the bullish side, if it’s an upside breakout, ‘normal’ behavior is for a ‘test’ of the trendline.

Either way, both scenarios favor more downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Next Carvana (short) Target

March 24, 2025 By in CVNA 1 Comment

Where The Stops Are Hiding

We’ve had one (short) target come and go, link here.

Tests can pass or fail.

In the most recent case of CVNA, the test of the up-thrust (reversal) failed to hold; price action launched higher.

So, what happens now?

Maybe a better question is ‘where’s the next (potential) low risk area for a short position?’

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Unless CVNA, reverses from its current level, the next likely place to clear out stops, is the target area shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Bleeds Down

March 23, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-03, LABD-25-04, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI

Loss Of Upside

‘He’s Dead, Jim!’

While we can’t officially declare biotech dead like ‘Bones’ Dr. McCoy, we can say the charts below, paint a less than bullish picture.

The XBI, is so packed full of nuances, it needs at least two charts.

Biotech XBI, Daily

First, apparent weakness.

Price action’s only been able to retrace 23.6%, after penetrating support (blue line) and forming a Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up.

On the far right, just below the magenta line, the grey lines show a minor up-thrust (reversal).

Next, we have a series of spring set-ups, that have failed.

Each time a spring condition is created, price action rises for a brief period, then collapses.

At the far right, the spring (shown in the first chart) appears to have failed; now subdividing lower.

Positioning

During Friday’s session, as price action began to rise unexpectedly, short LABD-25-03, was closed.

Then, late in the day after XBI appeared to have reached its high and reversed, a new short position, LABD-25-04, was opened (not advice, not a recommendation).

Obviously, the expectation for the coming week, is XBI to continue lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, ‘Testing … 1 … 2 … 3’

March 22, 2025 By in CVNA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Test 1 Comment

Higher Close, Lower Volume

Carvana finished up on Friday, in a test of its reversal.

We’re now at The Danger Point®

This is the location where risk on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Risk is least because if CVNA continues higher, the obvious stop location on a short is just above Thursday’s, 196.63, high.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Thursday’s volume was heavy at 8.3-mil.

Friday’s volume contracts by just over 25%. That’s not a whole lot but it still fits the definition of a ‘test’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Just like the kid sweating bullets in the cartoon, you can literally feel the ‘tension’ in the above chart.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279