Monthly Archives: May 2025

Carvana … Hits The Wall

May 21, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-01, CVNA-25-02, CVNA-25-03, Hindenburg, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

New Daily Low

Carvana’s down – 2.53%, at 10:21 a.m., EST.

The new daily low confirms we have some kind of top; maybe the top (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s also been a trendline break. A trend in-effect, for over a month.

Lastly, as we’ll see below, CVNA, has been in Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ position for the past five trading days.

Not only that, but we also have a repeating set-up, seen many times in the markets, detailed here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Let’s not forget the ‘unique’ fundamentals, link here.

Positioning

Those on this site for the past two weeks, have seen (in real time) several attempts to position short (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last trade, CVNA-25-02, was stopped out early Monday, at 304.52.

Reviewing the price action, CVNA had posted a minor spring-to-up-thrust.

The prior session’s low and high were penetrated.

Once that was observed, no hesitation; re-position short (CVNA-25-03) with new stop at that day’s high 306.98 (not advice, not a recommendation).

That’s where we are now.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (short) Targets

May 20, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, XBI

Where The Stops, Are Hiding

Let’s say, you’re a big player in the markets, with deep pockets.

Your timeframe is medium, to long-term, months-to-years.

If you were short biotech XBI, where are your stops?

That’s what we’ll look for, in the chart below.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

The un-marked chart, first.

Where does the eye go to (naturally) as a ‘safe’ location for stops on a short position?

Now, for where the stops may be hiding … and of course where we want to wait for a short (entry) opportunity.

The location shown is just below the 61.8%, retrace level and price action congestion.

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Boeing … ‘In The Pattern’

May 19, 2025 By in BA, BA-25-01, Bonds, Interest Rates, Positions 4 Comments

And Losing Altitude

If Boeing can’t frame airplanes in a timely and safe manner, it doesn’t matter how many orders are on the books.

Record order for Boeing, link here.

Add to that, the debt, just months ago, one notch above junk, link here.

Then, add to that, links here and here, interest rates may be moving higher as we speak. All of which, could put the bond issuance plan (see ‘junk’ link, above) at risk.

One more thing; Boeing has no P/E, and no yield.

You can’t make this up. 🙂

Boeing BA, Weekly

Note, repeating pattern: Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

The sidebar shows already short BA, as trade BA-25-01, with stop at today’s final high or last Friday’s high, whichever comes first (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

May 18, 2025 By in Bonds, CVNA, CVNA-25-02, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, ZeroHedge

USA, Credit Rating Downgrade

Providing fuel to the interest rate fire of yesterday’s post, we have this and this. Website link here.

Adding to that, is the ‘big picture’ on US debt, i.e., it’s “unsustainable”, link here.

The strategy on the debt, is to have the situation (known) in the background; so, when things really implode, one is not caught ‘off guard’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

For example, what’s going to happen to ‘rate’ related commerce (like auto sales) if interest rates launch higher?

Short Covering

Short covering on a mass scale is not a bull market phenomenon.

In the past week or so, we’ve had another near record amount of buying, links here and here.

All Quiet

As of this post (7:45 p.m., EST), the markets are holding steady.

The only position open, is short Carvana CVNA-25-02, with a stop, nearly hit on Friday, at 304.61 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Interest Rates … Higher

May 17, 2025 By in Bonds, David Weis, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TLT 3 Comments

TLT … ‘What Do You See?’

With TLT, poised to break lower (rates higher), make sure you’ve got your popcorn ready; the show is about to begin. 🙂

The next Fed meeting is one month away. A lot can happen before then.

Of course, by some unforeseen event, bonds could recover and move higher with rates lower. Anything can happen.

However, when looking at the long-term chart of TLT, a breakdown appears imminent (not advice, not a recommendation).

Long Bonds TLT, Monthly

Back in the day, David Weis (see About), never asked me what I thought, or about the next earnings release, or any other non-productive pursuit.

No, the question was always: “What do you see?”

If bonds break lower and rates go (significantly) higher, just think of the chaos.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

UnitedHealth … Dead Cat Bounce?

May 16, 2025 By in Health Care, Positions, Speck-Effect, The Speck, XLV, XLV-25-03, ZeroHedge

How Far, How Long?

Two major hits to UnitedHealth (UNH), in the past four days, here and here.

Let’s throw in this one as well, and make it an even three, link here, website link here. Is that why the healthcare costs are going up unexpectedly?

The Wall Street Journal, UnitedHealth, and ZeroHedge, may have presented conditions for an interim low (not advice, not a recommendation).

The press is usually last and typically presents (these days, anyway) nothing new.

The price action itself, told us something was wrong.

United Health UNH, Daily

Massive, historic volume for UNH, may indicate a temporary bottom and retrace to test Fibonacci levels.

Separately, the XLV short XLV-25-03 was closed with 6.93% profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Exxon Reversal

May 15, 2025 By in Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XOM, XOM-25-01, XOP

Picture Perfect

Exxon’s is one of the large-caps in the Oil & Gas sector ETF, XOP.

The potential for (downside) reversal in XOP, first presented here.

As part of the prep work to position short, the question was whether to short XOP, or one of the big caps.

As you can be seen, since XOM-25-01, is in the sidebar, we’ve gone short Exxon during yesterday’s session (not advice, not a recommendation).

As the chart shows, there was a small gap lower yesterday, presenting the risk that it would be filled before action continued lower.

That might still happen.

However, with XOM down 1.83 pts., in the pre-market (as of 9:12 a.m., EST), upside probabilities have lessened.

Exxon XOM, Daily

We have what appears to be, a picture-perfect Wyckoff up-thrust, and reversal.

If yesterday’s gap-lower open is not filled, then it’s a ‘breakaway’ gap, indicating (probability for) much lower prices ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Tops, at 311.88

May 14, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-02, Positions

Very Close, To ‘310’

If the high holds, the difference between 310, and 311.88, is 0.61%. 🙂

The link above, actually says “310-area“, so either way, it’s close.

Of course, it’s what happens next that’s important.

One thing that can be said with some confidence, Carvana is at The Danger Point®.

This is the area where the risk is least, for a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

There it is: Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

Around mid-session, as CVNA was continuing its breakout (prices rising), a short was opened: CVNA-25-02, with stop at the session high, 311.88 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Health Care Implosion

May 13, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-01, Health Care, Livermore, Positions, XLV, XLV-25-03

Breakaway Gap(s)

For Health Care Sector XLV, it’s one downside gap after another.

While ‘retail’ is off buying some kind of supposed ‘dip’, we have a market that’s fractured:

Gold and silver once up, now down, healthcare down, dollar up (wasn’t it supposed to collapse already?), airlines up, biotech down, basic materials up, auto dealers down, then up … and on it goes.

Housekeeping

Before we get started, Carvana short (CVNA-25-01) was closed when this morning’s action posted a new daily high.

CVNA, may be headed to that ‘310’ area we’ve been discussing for several weeks (not advice, not a recommendation).

Health Care Sector XLV, Daily

The next chart shows the stop progression and trendline for short-trade XLV-25-03 (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this point, the trade is progressing and price action ‘makes sense’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s no telling how long the right-side trend will remain in-effect; so, the correct action as Jesse Livermore said years ago is, ‘Get right and sit tight’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Testing The Highs

May 12, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-01, Positions, Up-Thrust

Watch The Volume

The last update said:

“A New (closing) High?”

That’s what happened with CVNA, closing out that session (5/8/25), at 285.53.

If there are no new daily highs from here, CVNA is either posting a (potential) double top or an up-thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Either way, the technical item to watch, is the volume and the prior session’s high, 284.23 (as a stop level).

If volume contracts from the previous session, it’s possible the highs have been tested and we’re heading lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

At 2:30 p.m., EST, it’s still a long way to the close; we won’t know until then.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279