Monthly Archives: September 2025

SOXX … Top & Test

September 30, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, DIA, DIA-25-05, Dow 30, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-15, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

The Big One?

If it really is the ‘big one’, we won’t know until it’s over.

What is known, the SOXX posted an all-time high yesterday.

Today, it posted a new daily low and then immediately began a retrace higher (to test).

That’s where we are now. The test has (so far) posted all the way up to a 61.8%, retrace.

Semiconductor SOXX, 30-minute

We’re in close on the action with the 30-minute chart.

Of course, while all this is going on, the major distraction (this time around) is the ‘shutdown‘.

Separately, the Dow (DIA) posted a new daily low. 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Dow Set-Up

September 29, 2025 By in DIA, DIA-25-05, Dow 30, Positions, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

While Everyone’s Focused on A.I.

Who looks at the Dow Industrials anymore?

Bueller? … Bueller? … Bueller?

We’ll be brief.

The Dow 30’s last peak, an all-time-high, was Fibonacci 5-Days ago, September 23rd.

Dow 30 ETF, DIA, Daily

We’re at Day 5, as mentioned, also at a 68% retrace and currently trading lower.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

When The Bonds Spike

September 28, 2025 By in Bonds, Ed Dowd, Interest Rates, TLT 1 Comment

Kickoff Move?

Does the TLT bond reversal, signal the kick-off for the markets?

In one of Ed Dowd’s many interviews, he said to watch the bond market for clues to when the rest of the market(s) could reverse.

The chart of long bond proxy TLT, shows us we’ve just had a wedge breakout and possibly a test.

Long Bonds TLT, Daily Close

If it’s a sustainable reversal, expectation is for the upside to continue (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, that also means capital is (potentially) moving away from equities; so far, doing it under the radar.

Until there’s a big break.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Tricolor ‘Canary’

September 27, 2025 By in Livermore

Harbinger of Future Implosions?

One-minute, Tricolor Auto is Triple AAA rated.

The next minute, it’s bankrupt, in Chapter 7 (liquidation) along with fraud allegations.

Livermore said it himself, ‘surprises tend to come in the direction of trend’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Bubble’ & The ‘Beast’

September 26, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, BIS, IBB, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, SOXX-25-14, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 3 Comments

Downside For Both?

The ‘bubble’ is obvious, Artificial Intelligence.

The ‘beast’, not so much, but revealed below.

The last update, presented a case for the SOXX top, a proxy for A.I.

Note: If the SOXX, has made its final high, it’s still very early in the reversal:

Wyckoff said a century ago, ‘It’s as if the weight of a feather can move the market in either direction’.

That’s where we are now.

For biotech (IBB, XBI), different forces are at work.

Biotech IBB, Weekly

The 38.2%, retrace from 9/19 high, to 9/25 low, is in the vicinity of 140.90 (magenta dashed line).

Fridays are typically biased to the upside.

There’s a possibility IBB, may test (upward) throughout the session, heading to (at or near) 38%, by the end of the day (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX at The Top

September 25, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bert Dohmen, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, SOXX-25-14, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Did The Bubble (just) Pop?

The SOXX, closed lower yesterday and is down again, in today’s pre-market.

If we’re in a sustainable reversal, volume provided the clue.

As with Carvana, SOXX volume in the last session increased substantially from the day prior.

Lower close, higher volume, increasing pressure.

In pre-market, SOXX continues to drop as we speak. Is this the ‘gap-down’ Bert Dohmen talked about? Link here.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily Close

We’re in Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ condition. Pre-market action says it’s a draw-down, best case.

Worst case (for the bulls) is that we’re at the top … and it’s a long way down.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Falls in Hole

September 24, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, CVNA-24-14, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-14, Up-Thrust, WMT, WMT-25-07, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Trading Below Support

Carvana spent three days hovering above support.

Yesterday, trading started above support, then, ended below.

Adding to that, price action was down on double volume from the prior session.

Volume study is part of Wyckoff analysis. It typically does not get attention as it’s boring, generating no ‘clicks’.

The increase in volume suggested pressure’s building to the downside.

Based on that, a (small) short was opened yesterday (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Short position is being maintained; stop to be moved at the end of this session to the day’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Other Markets

From the ‘notes’ discussion on yesterday’s post, the WMT position was stopped out (at essentially break-even) early this session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price action looks like a secondary test of the reversal.

However, from a preference standpoint, the focus is on CVNA … and the SOXX.

More on that later.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Cadence Design … Reversal Ready

September 23, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, CDE, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 5 Comments

Repeating Pattern

During the last multi-year, market melt-down from ’07 – ’09, Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) crashed over -90%, in a relatively ‘well-behaved’ collapse.

‘Well-behaved’; straight down, sideways, then straight down again.

Looking at the current price action on a closing basis, we see the ominous (potential) pattern of Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

Cadence Design Systems, CDNS, Daily Close

Other Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-ups are noted.

However, this time around, we may be in up-thrust (reversal) condition.

The next earnings release is late October; there’s time to assess action (if/when short) before any Kabuki theater (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Walmart, Tests Reversal

September 22, 2025 By in David Weis, Up-Thrust, WMT, Wyckoff

Watch The Volume

The last update on Walmart (WMT) had this:

Will we get an upside test, even if only briefly?

Watching price action early this session, it looks like that test is happening now (not advice, not a recommendation).

From a Wyckoff (and David Weis) perspective, what we’re looking for if WMT, keeps rising or holds steady, is volume to contract on the day.

Contracting volume indicates a test of the up-thrust (reversal) and helps to add probability to the downside.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Auto Lender’s Implosion

September 21, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, ALLY, Biotech, CVNA, SPBIO, XBI

One of Many?

The last melt-down in 2008 – 2009, was precipitated by subprime mortgage.

This time, will it be auto loans?

Is this just one of many implosions to come?

Digging-in on auto finance, we have chief cook and bottle washer, Ally Financial. Old timers know this outfit as formerly GMAC.

Let’s not forget, Carvana (CVNA) and Ally are (potentially) joined at the hip, link here.

Moving on to the chart.

Ally Financial, ALLY, Weekly

This price action is eerily similar to biotech.

Note how long ALLY bounced around below support (in spring position) before finally moving to the upside.

Nearly a month ‘hugging the lows’, could be an underlying indication of weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).

The next earnings release is scheduled for October 17th.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279