Author Archives: thedangerpoint

CrowdStrike … Tests Breakdown

December 19, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CAT, CRWD, Ox Talks Leave a comment

Similar to Caterpillar

Our favorite chief, cook, and bottle washer of the negative P/E, currently standing at -379, is about the same as the last update.

The difference from then, is that price action has got itself into a potential test of a wedge breakdown.

Ever since the ‘update glitch‘ wipeout, it’s never been the same for CRWD.

CrowdStrike CRWD, Daily Close

Yesterday’s action closed higher. So far today, trading is continuing the move.

It’s important to note that volume is not remarkable; meaning, the last high-volume day was at the earnings release on December 2nd, and 3rd.

Unlike CAT, in the prior update, we don’t have a decisive indicator (volume) for a trend break (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s as if CRWD, is banging around (with low volume), trying to find a direction.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Caterpillar (CAT) Breakdown

December 18, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CAT, Edward Dowd 1 Comment

Trend Break … Then Test

There’s more than one way to position for the A.I. and ‘datacenter’ implosion.

As Ed Dowd stated in a recent interview, (paraphrasing):

‘Once the unwind starts, it’s going to happen fast.’

With the CAT trend break, we may be there, at the ‘unwind’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Caterpillar CAT, Daily

If CAT manages to close higher for the day, it will be Fibonacci Day 5, from the all-time highs.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … Crash, then, Bounce

December 17, 2025 By in Natural Gas, UNG, UNG-25-02, Wyckoff Leave a comment

Penetrates Support, Spring Condition

Nat-Gas UNG dropped nearly -30% from the December 5th, 17.00 high, to yesterday’s low of 11.92.

Today was a bounce and by the close, UNG was up +4.46%

Note that yesterday’s low was a Fibonacci eight-days from the December 5th, high.

It was also below support, putting it in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Natural Gas UNG, Daily

After the up-thrust high, UNG essentially went straight down without even a hint of any upside test.

It’s not often UNG, posts an eight-day decline of -30% or more. The last such streak was back in November of 2022; from 11/22, to 12/5, of that year.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Miners, on the Edge

December 16, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, SIL, SIL-25-01, SLV Leave a comment

Hovering, Just Above Resistance

Silver miners SIL, are at highs not seen in over a decade.

We already know, silver SLV, is at a Fibonacci projection and possible pivot, link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s no stretch to say the media is screaming about silver ‘breaking its shackles’.

Oh, that’s just great.

If true, and with silver being such a thin market, then those ‘shackles’ may have kept the market organized, preventing massive, high volatility, low liquidity swings over the years.

I guess no one thought about that possibility. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana on Fumes

December 15, 2025 By in CVNA Leave a comment

Early Session, Inside Bar

It’s been a streak of Fibonacci 13-higher closes in a row, until last Friday.

Friday was ‘outside-down’. Today, we’re trading inside that bar (so far).

At this juncture (early session) CVNA is posting slightly below the minor resistance points (the closes) shown in the chart

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The condition is very subtle and there’s been no real sign of supply … just a potential softening of demand.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

AutoZone ‘Crash’

December 14, 2025 By in AZO, Wyckoff Leave a comment

Wide, High-Volume Bar

AutoZone’s down -21.48% from all-time highs with -13.78% of that, in just December, alone.

Price action posted a wide, high-volume bar on earnings, that ‘missed’.

What we’re looking for now, is a test of that wide bar; then, to see if AZO rolls over into a (sustained) decline, or if that was the end of the current down move (not advice, not a recommendation).

AutoZone AZO, Daily

At this point, there’s been no follow-through after hitting support which suggests there could be a ‘spring’ attempt.

On a weekly basis (not shown), the downthrust energy Force Index, was the second highest ever, for AZO.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Targets and Projections

December 13, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, Livermore, SLV, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Does The ‘Correction’, Start Now?

More than a few ‘engineering’ types trading the market, will talk about getting over the need to know, ‘why’.

Why does Fibonacci work?

Why does price action alternate?

Why is the market moving, or not moving; why, why, why?

Marsha, Marsha, Marsha

The media of course, wants everyone to focus on why.

If you’re focused on why, then you’re at least two steps removed from the truth.

Asking the wrong question (why) and then, looking for the wrong answer.

Both Livermore and Wyckoff, did not concern themselves with ‘why’ … but ‘what’?

With that said, let’s take a look at ‘what’s’ going on with silver, SLV.

Silver SLV, Daily Close

Shown, are the lows of August 2020 to last Friday’s close.

A whole week of updates (maybe more) could be spent on this one chart: there’s that much going on.

We have Wyckoff springs, up-thrusts, price action alternation, Fibonacci levels, time correlations, volume spikes, and the list goes on.

For today however, the main take-away is that Friday was outside-down (key reversal) on heavy volume.

That reversal (so far) took place at the exact 261.8%, Fibonacci projection (not advice, not a recommendation).

As said in yesterday’s update, we could also be in a new paradigm where silver just keeps on going.

Next upside Fibonacci projection (423.6%) is near 83.50.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s ‘Parabolic’ Phase

December 12, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, SLV 1 Comment

Standard-Type ‘Blow Off’

Do we have the usual parabolic ‘blow-off’ move in silver (SLV), or have we entered into a new dimension, where it’s different this time?

From a traditional analysis standpoint, at this juncture (mid-session) it’s not looking good for the bulls.

Silver, SLV, just posted out-side down (if it closes here, or lower) and it’s met a measured move target from a terminating wedge.

In addition, as we’ll see in the chart, the current trendline is rising at approximately 5,600%, annualized.

That type of move can’t be sustained; that is, if we’re not in a ‘new dimension’. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver SV, Daily

From a traditional standpoint, targets have been met; the day’s action (so far) is ‘key reversal’, outside down (not advice, not a recommendation).

As always, the trendline could hold.

SLV, could also go to the stratosphere in a new paradigm, where nothing makes sense anymore … oh wait 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Anatomy of a Reversal

December 11, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-20, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI Leave a comment

Wyckoff Schematic

An excellent schematic tutorial on Wyckoff, can be found here.

Going to the link, scrolling down to ‘Distribution’, we have a schematic that includes the notation “UTAD”.

UTAD, stands for, Upthrust After Distribution.

The accompanying text for the schematic indicates the distribution has already taken place; UTAD, is essentially a ‘last gasp’ to see if there’s any more demand.

A fascinating question would be, ‘Was the heavy volume associated with this update an indication of distribution?’

Does that mean the subsequent blip higher in this update, was essentially UTAD?

Biotech XBI, Hourly

The heavy volume (potential) distribution is noted.

If this is a correct view of XBI, then right now, it’s at The Danger Point®; where risk on a short is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, Hangs at The Wedge

December 10, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Federal Reserve, LABD, LABD-25-20, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Waiting for The Fed?

The last update on biotech presented what was thought to be a reversal condition.

The huge downward thrust with volume, was taken as the clue, some large entity or entities (may) have just exited the market.

Well, it’s been seven trading days since then and it looks like we might be at a pivot point (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

The reversal (Wyckoff up-thrust) was nearly textbook. The only thing absent, was a lower close for that day.

We’re now hovering at the edge.

The Fed announcement is just over an hour away.

Anything can happen.

MACD (magenta arrow) shows momentum has slowed and lines have crossed to the downside.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279