Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Bond Bulls … Whacked

July 7, 2026 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, Ox Talks, TLT, ZeroHedge 4 Comments

Higher Rates

At the pivot off the lows in May, was this.

The very next day, TLT launched into a rally, seven straight higher closes, then a minor retrace to 38%, before continuing higher.

It seemed like all was well.

However, this link contains the statement that describes it best (paraphrasing):

Four-decades of the bull market in bonds, steadily declining yields, ended four years ago.

That bull market end, first discussed on this site (over two-years ago), with this post.

All of that to say, we did get a six-week rally in TLT, which at this point, has imploded; the over-riding bear market asserts its trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Long Bonds TLT, Weekly

Note: The dashed downtrend line goes all the way back to the week of 4/29/22, over four years ago.

Ox Talks, on Bonds

This update from Ox Talks, discussing private credit, but containing a nuance on bonds and interest rates.

‘Retail’ is bailing out of private credit, while ‘institutions’ are taking their place, link here (Time Stamp: 5:18).

At 5:40, we see how those institutions expect to see the ‘investment’ pay off (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate’s ‘Outside-Down’

July 6, 2026 By in Real Estate, VNQ, VNQ-26-01 Leave a comment

Another, Well Defined Risk

Vanguard Real Estate VNQ, posted outside down during the session just ended.

Before today, price action appeared ready to breakout to the upside; possibly, in a final summertime blow-off move.

Now, because of the reversal, that probability appears to have shifted to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Entegris … Down, – 11.22%

July 5, 2026 By in APH, ENTG, Semiconductors, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff Leave a comment

Ease of Movement

Semiconductors weren’t the only ones hit hard last Thursday; suppliers were as well.

The table at left, shows the top eight. All, deeply in the red as of the last close.

For today’s discussion, we’re looking at Entegris, ENTG.

The last update was here.

Since then, ENTG has posted a false breakout, or a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Entegris ENTG, Daily

As in the case of Amphenol, yesterday, there’s a well-defined risk level, if short; Thursday’s high at 166.76 (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Amphenol … At-The-Edge

July 4, 2026 By in APH, APH-26-02, Artificial Intelligence, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Extremes

It’s not often there’s such a well defined risk on any trade, long, or short.

In the case of Amphenol, all-time highs, followed by a reversal and close below resistance.

That’s the definition of a Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’.

Such a set-up does not guarantee anything.

We’re interested in minimizing the risk as much as possible.

In the case above, if short, a good point for exit on a failed position would be last Thursday’s high at 173.00 (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Construction Sector … Breakdown

July 3, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, EME, Engineering & Construction, FIX, PWR, Semiconductors, ZeroHedge

Weakest of Three

Semiconductors weren’t the only ones going over the edge yesterday.

Engineering & Construction was as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stories like this, may be a clue.

Of the three largest caps, PWR, FIX and EME, the weakest price action (at this time) is Emcor Group Inc., EME.

Emcor Group, EME, Daily

Yesterday, was a breakdown through a long term trendline (dashed blue line).

‘Normal’ market behavior, like discussed with the semi’s (yesterday), is to come back for a test (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that test happens, there’s no required timeframe.

Price action itself will let us know.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … ‘Straight Down’

July 2, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, QQQ, Semiconductors, SOXX 1 Comment

Testing The Break

For those already short, it was a good day.

For those long or waiting to go long, it was not so good.

However, even as this post is being created, the SOXX is retracing higher in the after-hours, testing its trend-line break (not advice, not a recommendation).

Today’s action saw the lower wedge trend-line broken to the downside on increased volume.

Note: The Nasdaq (QQQ) has not broken its lower line but stopped right at the wedge boundary.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

While testing of the break is ‘normal’, anything can happen.

If the breakdown stays in-effect, the measured move target is around 487 (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Corning: Retrace or Reversal?

July 1, 2026 By in QQQ, Nasdaq, GLW

What Comes Next …

The Qs retraced as anticipated but so did Corning (GLW), in more dramatic fashion.

Looking at the chart, note how the Fibonacci retrace levels ‘fit’ GLW price action.

The down-draft energy dissipated after the initial collapse, so what happens tomorrow is important.

As of this post, in the after-hours, the Qs are at just at their session lows and edging higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nasdaq Qs … ‘Straight Up’

June 30, 2026 By in Nasdaq, QQQ 2 Comments

What’s Next?

It’s been two days of straight up, for the Nasdaq.

Tomorrow could make it a third but is that ‘normal’ market behavior, given the chart at left?

After breaking through one level of resistance and then, hitting another, the more probable action is to retrace and test the lower support (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Corning, Parabolic … Again

June 29, 2026 By in CAR, GLW, SLV

How Long Can 2-million% last?

Parabolic action is similar to commodity blow-off action; for that, we have at least two recent examples (not advice, not a recommendation).

Those two are: First, and actual commodity, silver (SLV) and then Second: A massive, short squeeze (CAR).

Silver posted its reversal on the daily, January 29th.

For CAR, it was all over within hours on April 22nd, closing down -37.82%.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s Breakdown

June 28, 2026 By in CVNA, IYT, Transportation, XLY

Wedge, with Volume

Carvana’s all-time highs were posted in January, this year.

Since then, it’s been a choppy grind lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this point, price action has a wedge breakdown.

Adding to that, last Friday included a lower close and volume surge, 262% over the prior session.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

From a sector standpoint, transportation (IYT), is trending higher, while consumer discretionary (XLY), is lower.

So, we have to ask ourselves, is Carvana part of transportation, discretionary, both, or in its own category?

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279