Biotech Retrace

Mid Session

Putting It In Perspective

Biotech (SPBIO) is still well off the highs and in bear market (below 20%) territory.

We’re going to take the last section of the chart, highlighted below and expand it out to hourly.

Hourly detail is below:

There was a minor penetration of support yesterday, the 6th; that has resulted in a spring condition upward move.

Now, we’re at the Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace of the down-move that started on September 2nd.

Spring-To-Up-Thrust ?

Looking at the hourly, it’s clear just a little farther up and we’ll penetrate minor resistance (which is also the 23.6%, retrace). Doing so, would put price action in the all too familiar and well documented ‘spring to up-thrust’ condition.

At mid-session, with SPBIO retreating (slightly) from the highs, it may not make it to up-thrust, today.

However, one still needs to be aware of the possibility.

Positioning:

As my firm is positioned short this sector (not advice, not a recommendation), being in the red for the day is never fun.

However, at this juncture, the charts themselves say there’s nothing untoward about maintaining short.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech, Trending Lower

Early Session

The Lies And Reality, Don’t Match

You would think with all the announcements about corporations (forcing) their employees to become ‘fully protected’, the biotech sector would be launching higher.

After all, that sector’s about to get a massive increase in revenue as the major players continue on with their ‘protection’ plan.

Just yesterday, late in the day was this announcement.

Looks like 1,400 non-compliant, undesirables have been dealt with.

Let’s do some math.

If that was 2% of the workforce, that means just for this employer alone, approximately 68,600 (subtracting 1,400 from 70,000) have now received a ‘bonus’ from the company.

If the scientific (real science) estimates are correct, the ‘elephant‘ will begin to kick in within six months and be fully effective (terminal) within five years.

This example is not the only one … Southwest Airlines just announced a similar push; fully ‘protected’ by the end of the year.

With all this good news, one would expect the biotech sector (SPBIO) to be launching higher in an unstoppable rally.

Um, no.

Let’s take a look at what’s really going on with the price action.

SPBIO (and 3X inverse, LABD):

We’re going to use the 3X inverse SPBIO fund LABD, for our analysis.

We’re about 30-minutes past the open and SPBIO, is heading lower with inverse LABD, moving higher:

We’re going to digress just a bit; updating on the ‘alternating’ action discussed in this update.

Price action above, is choppy and overlapping. That’s different from what we see now:

With all that being said, it’s possible LABD, has just confirmed the right side of a trend-line:

As a reminder, biotech (SPBIO) is the only major index that just finished three down quarters in a row.

If current action continues … it’s on track to make it four.

Wyckoff said it a century ago:

‘Somebody always knows something. That something, is reflected in the tape (price action)’.

The lies and reality don’t match. Biotech is losing steam … possibly in anticipation of an ‘event’ of some kind.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

S&P, Rebound ?

Before The Open

Price Action Penetrates Support

Yesterday’s action in SPY, closed lower but not before bouncing off the top of the ‘Neckline’ as shown below:

We should also note, during that session, action penetrated the support level established on September 20th.

It’s a completely natural market behavior to ‘spring’ off penetration(s). Today’s pre-market session is doing just that.

The reason is, once support is penetrated, it sets off a flurry of orders; sell, sell short, and buy … along with the associated stops.

It’s a busy area in the market. Those orders need to be sorted out.

That’s where we are now. However, a couple items to note.

One:

Since September 23rd, in the regular session, SPY has posted seven consecutive lower highs.

Two:

As shown below, if price action opens (or gets no higher) than 430.60 – 430.70, or so, that action is trading right at a Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace from the September 23rd high, to yesterday’s low:

Currently, with about 25-minutes to go before the open, SPY is right around 430.44 – 430.45.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

… “Like everybody else … “

Early Session

Or … ‘How To Lose Your Shirt’

If you’re reading this, consider yourself already separated or in the process of separating from the crowd.

At time stamp 5:15, in this from Uneducated Economist, there’s a mind-blowing statement from one of his followers.

UE is posting his thoughts on inflation. That is, there isn’t any … just like what this site proposes.

The commenter asked ‘Why don’t you see it just like everybody else does?’

It’s incredible but very telling on the collective mindset of those who are (or allow themselves to be) easily manipulated.

High School Correlation:

It’s not much different than High School (what a joke that was).

The popular kids seeming to have it all while the nerds, the geeks, and the weirdos were all left out … or bullied.

However, the raw edge of real life is not High School. That’s where the opportunity is for those in the very small minority.

Everybody has an equal chance to grow up.

After (years ago) going to my 10-year High School reunion, I realized the vast majority never grow or challenge themselves in any way.

I could see during the event, more than a few were already alcoholics. Deadening the pain of their cowardice.

As it turned out, I realized that ‘popularity’ is a prison. Locking up the individual in a life of fear (of becoming unpopular) and the associated mediocrity that results.

How does that anecdote relate to the problem at hand … the markets?

S&P Review:

It’s early in the session and the S&P (SPY), is trading lower.

The daily chart shows possible completion of the H&S pattern discussed previously.

The location of the report “The Plug Has Been Pulled” is also provided for reference.

At the time, it was uncertain and certainly unpopular to suggest the (potential) all time high was in.

So, we’ll see if the SPY, heads lower to start bouncing around the neckline … providing more confirmation of a significant reversal.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

The Usual Suspects For The Week

Special “Zombie” Edition

No. 1

“Brainless Zombies”

Those of us that still have a functioning, critical thinking brain, are at a loss to describe the idiocy of the masses.

The Maverick of Wall Street calls them “brainless zombies” (time stamp 3:50).

Dan, at I Allegedly, looks to the sky and searches for words to explain the phenomenon.

During his walk-and-talks, he has struggled but finally came up with “Imbecile”.

Jerimiah Babe calls them “These People”

No matter what we call them, for a number yet to be determined, they’re ‘dead men walking‘.

No. 2

Cat watches Tom & Jerry

No. 3

“Zombie Watch”

Looks like the generation that may have little to no experience on how mass genocide via dictatorship starts, is about to find out.

First, they watch you … all the time.

Then …

No. 4

Dan Gets ‘Edgy’

In an attitude that seems similar to this site, Dan gets into who he wants as a relator (time stamp 13:00).

That is, not some hairdresser that just got their license six months ago but someone who’s ‘been in the trenches’ as he says. Someone who was ‘around during the 2008, crash’.

Someone who’s a hardened and tough negotiator.

As the economy, the food supply, energy supplies and now volcanic eruptions/earthquakes continue to destroy the infrastructure, it’s likely the population that stands to survive, will get very focused on experience.

Paper (degrees) hanging on the wall, as so-called ‘qualifications’ are no substitute for brutal, raw-edged competence.

No. 5

DC-3 (C-47) Low Pass

Go to time stamp 7:13, and turn up the the volume.

No. 6

“Visor & Mask” Zombies

The following comment, taken from one of Dan’s (I Allegedly) posts, linked here.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is 2021-09-29_11-20-54-dan-comment.png

It may be hard to read. Several areas have been expanded and shown below:

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is 2021-09-29_11-20-54-dan-comment-expand-1.png
This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is 2021-09-29_11-20-54-dan-comment-expand-3.png

That last comment, repeated:

“But honestly, I think we deserve it. The stupidity today is unprecedented and it’s not sustainable.”

Hmmm, where have we heard that sentiment before?

This site, maybe?

No. 7

“Penal Colony” … Australia

As a corollary to No 3, remember back a few years ago, when the Aussies made a big deal about turning in and/or destroying their means of ‘protection’?

Well zombies, now we see the result.

No. 8

Dutch Greenhouse Goes Dark

Solve for the following equation:

Does, (Stupid) X (Stupid) = Zombie?

Well, let’s see.

First, we’ll cut our coal fired energy sources.

“Stupid”

Then, we’ll power our food supply production (an absolute necessity) with whatever unreliable energy source is left.

“Stupid”

Oh, wait.

Let’s bring those coal fired plants back on line.

You know, the ones we haven’t bulldozed yet to get our food production back on track.

“Zombie”

Indeed: We have (Stupid) X (Stupid) = Zombie

No. 9

Creedence Clearwater: Run Through The Jungle

The music and the film footage are excellent. They set the scene.

Perhaps, more important are comments such as this one:

I was born in 65. In the 70s this CCR tune made my fathers eye turn to what I later learned was called the “thousand yard stare”. That’s when I knew it was time for me to just quietly slip out of the room. I could literally see/sense his fear and pain. he didn’t, get mean, just distant and quiet, until the day he died. A lot of you know exactly what I mean. This song did a lot to help me understand him and his friends. Now that we are both a lot older, I only wish I could take some of that weight from him and carry it for him, and maybe give him some space to recover some of his lost soul. I can’t be the only son who has, and still does cry for my father and what he had taken from him.

Even better, is the first comment that replies to the above:

“How many women and children did he kill?”

I say it’s better because ladies and gentlemen, it may be a perfect example of the zombie mentality that could be nearly, if not fully eradicated during our up-coming trials.

Recall, from No. 6, above:

The stupidity today is unprecedented and it’s not sustainable.

Of course, our village idiot’s comment did not go unchallenged.

Many replies followed throughout the link and included a good amount of, “Thank you for your service”.

We’ll end our ‘Notes’ with the following; also from the same link.

If you honestly want to thank a veteran. Become a citizen worthy of being fought for

Which then begs the question: Are you, or am I, that citizen?

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Dollar Ruse

What if it’s all a lie?

It seems that its been going on forever we’ve heard phrases like: ‘dollar destruction’, ‘gold’s going to $10,000,/oz’., ‘rampant inflation’, ‘hyperinflation’ and on.

What if (speculated in yesterday’s post), it’s all a lie?

It takes a very flexible mind (technically termed, “neural plasticity”) to be able to wrap itself around and understand the diabolical agenda being played out before us.

The good news is, Wyckoff analysis cuts through all the lies.

Now past a century old, this technique has stood the test of time.

Which brings us to the dollar.

Dollar Destruction: Just Another Lie

Reminder: Way back in late December of 2020, was the first bullish update on the dollar.

The next chart shows UUP, may be in a trend and just about to contact overhead resistance.

We’ll investigate further how UUP behaves if and when it gets into the resistance area.

One thing about the dollar that’s obvious from the chart, it’s not going down.

At this juncture, there’s no dollar destruction.

The dollar and gold are still inversely correlated.

That means continued downward pressure on the metals and upward pressure on the dollar.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: Three In A Row

Early Session

It’s Official:

Down, Three Quarters In A Row

No other major index has three consecutive quarters lower.

Even the gold miners (GDX, GDXJ), while in a bear market, still had an up quarter with the one ending June 30th, this year.

So, what does this mean?

Slow At First. Then, All At Once:

The first answer is the obvious one; the air is slowly but steadily (thus far) coming out of this sector.

The second answer is more complicated.

As discussed yesterday, we’ve seen the phenomenon of instantaneous focus shift in disparate parties … a well documented and repeated occurrence in the animal kingdom.

We could see a similar thing with biotech or the markets overall.

As Dan from I Allegedly reported yesterday, the container ship pile-up off the coast and slow unloading is intentional.

The resulting shortages are intentional.

The corresponding price rises (camouflaged as ‘inflation’ by the media), are intentional.

It’s possible (speculation) that by having prices go up and the media touting it as inflation, the public, pile into the corresponding sectors such as gold, silver and the miners … all of which have been heading lower.

More importantly, what this crowd does NOT do, is go the other direction; sell and sell short, stockpile food, water, medicine, tools, hardware, consumables, protection, backup power.

Of course, some of them are.

However, just in my neighborhood as I look around and down the street, there are fifteen houses that are visible.

I know for a fact, only two (this residence and the neighbor across the street) have been, and are, taking preparatory action: That equates to 13%.

Driving through the neighborhood to get to a main road, there are about another 40 homes.

I can see, none of them have an operation garden (or livestock) of any kind: That makes our ‘prep’ percentage go down to 3.6.%.

The real percentage (for the entire neighborhood) may be close to 0.5%, or less.

This is probably a typical number but your mileage may vary.

Instantaneous Shift:

That low percentage (0.5%), gives a clue to how vicious a down-draft could be once everyone realizes they’ve been had.

Couple that with our ‘elephant’ from yesterday, and it may be absolute insanity.

All of which, brings us to the chart of biotech (SPBIO).

SPBIO Analysis:

Not only was it a down quarter but on a monthly and weekly basis, SPBIO has posted reversal and continuation (down) bars respectively.

The unmarked monthly chart of SPBIO, is below:

The next two charts show monthly reversal bars and then a Fibonacci projection to lower levels.

The projection was taken from the all time high on February 9th, this year, to the intermediate low, May 11th; then the counter-trend pivot high on June 28th.

It’s interesting to note; the monthly reversal bars are Fibonacci 8-months apart.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Elephant In The Room

Mid Session

… It’s Already Here

Nearly simultaneously, all three YouTube channels that are monitored closely, have shifted their focus.

This phenomenon, instant change among disparate parties, has been well documented in the science community (before that community became corrupt) with animals on separate continents.

In short, it was found that herds of animals would instantly change their behavior to be congruent with each other even though there was no direct visible or physical connection.

It’s sort of a ‘collective consciousness’ phenomenon.

The YouTube presenters being discussed are:

I Allegedly

Jerimiah Babe

Texas Silver

Dan (I Allegedly) has literally thousands upon thousands of contacts. He’s an invaluable source of information.

He also has the stamina to sit through a Fed speech, Senate or Congressional hearings and the like … then report on what’s being discussed.

Jerimiah Babe gives us ‘boots on the ground’ reporting about the economic collapse so that we can see it for ourselves.

Texas Silver has the warrior mentality (and is not some coward ‘poser’ with useless crap all over his AR), showing us a working homestead and all that’s involved.

Their instantaneous shift in direction is being highlighted; not the importance of their channels which remains at the high end.

From a physical standpoint (like the animals separated by continents) they are not physically connected to each other.

Pulling Away From Precious Metals

Yet, all three have pulled away (in varying degrees) from the ‘stacking’ mentality.

Admittedly, Dan was never really a stacker … but he has changed direction; now talking about procuring supplies, food, water, medicines.

Be aware, there may be yet another collective shift (this time, world-wide) on the horizon.

Festering in the background, is an event that won’t be able to be ignored or dismissed as ‘conspiracy’ much longer .

It’s important to get out in front (if you aren’t already) and position oneself accordingly.

Which brings us to the elephant.

Biotech, SPBIO:

That elephant is, we’re at the front end of a potential mass genocide event (that’s already underway).

Conditions are already set in motion for a loss of the world-wide population of at least 5% – 10%, in the next 2, to 5 years (and that’s probably very conservative).

The chief cook and bottle washer in all of this, is biotech.

LABD (3X Inverse SPBIO):

Several charts are below. The vertical scale has been compressed to show the potential of the nascent move:

Today is the last trading day of the third quarter.

SPBIO, is on track to post lower three quarters in a row. No other major index is in the same position.

It seems to be taking forever but the case against biotech continues to build.

Positioning:

No doubt we’re short this sector via LABD (not advice not a recommendation), in a big way.

LABD has apparently finished its downward testing.

Now, as discussed (here and here), price action is alternating to the upside.

With that in mind, the new daily high of yesterday has not yet been reversed. This is alternating action when compared to the daily high reversal of September 20th.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Bonds … Kabuki Theater

Early Session

What Is The Bond Market Saying About Itself?

With all the media press and hype, you would think bond yields have just spiked above 15%.

We have to remind ourselves that everything, that is, every move, every press release, every interview, is controlled.

Controlled for the purpose of “deception” as Livermore put it during an interview with Wyckoff in 1921.

With that in mind, who stands to benefit from the sharp move lower in bonds?

Seems like the obvious answer is, the short-term shorts and the longer-term bulls; especially if the hapless ‘hedge funds’ have jumped on the band wagon to short the market.

Bond (TLT) Analysis:

What Is The Market Saying About Itself?

The sharp move lower over the past four trading sessions, has likely cleared out the weak hands and emboldened the shorts to short some more.

The problem is (for the bears), we’re at a 50% retrace of the March 18th low. In addition, price action has just penetrated well known support.

That puts the bond market (TLT) in spring position.

We can see from today’s open, TLT is gap-higher and now, just below the support level.

We’re at the danger point, where the risk of going long is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Because the four-day down-draft was so swift, don’t expect TLT to launch into an instant and sustained rally.

There may be quite a bit of testing (if and) before this market heads higher.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Is The ‘Bounce’, Over?

Early Session

S&P Bullish … Or Bearish?

This is how the S&P (SPY) looked before the open.

The blue lines show a small wedge pattern. Under bullish conditions, price action continues higher into a measured move; somewhere around SPY 449 – 450.

What we got at the open, is below:

The SPY opened lower and so far, has not continued its upward momentum.

It may be nothing; or it may signal the Right Shoulder of the Head & Shoulders, is complete.

As always, anything can happen. SPY may be just gathering steam for an attempt at new daily highs.

However, the action in biotech indicates the bears are moving into the markets; behind the scenes and slowly at first.

Biotech, SPBIO:

Biotech has opened lower (LABD higher).

Yesterday’s price action was entirely consistent with the ‘alternation’ discussed in that update.

For Example:

There was no (immediate) downward test from the September 17th low … and this time, the September 23rd low, there was:

We can see, after the open, price action for LABD is pushing higher (lower for SPBIO):

If we get a new daily high for LABD (above yesterday’s 19.62), it signifies the lower testing action is likely complete; the bears are taking control of biotech.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.