Real Estate: Sleepy & Quiet

At least that’s the way it looks right now.

Under the radar, the sector (IYR) may be getting ready for a dramatic break lower.

The chart above is the 3X inverse fund DRV (inverse of IYR).

The table shows entries over the past few days; not advice, not a recommendation. Currently, the firm has no other open positions.

Early in this morning’s session, IYR posted a new daily low with DRV conversely, posting a new daily high.

At this juncture (11:23 a.m. EST), we’re in a very tight range (both tickers, IYR, DRV) that’s oscillating in an attempt to determine the direction of least resistance.

From a weekly momentum standpoint, MACD has been positing lower for two weeks and is near a zero crossing.

With that, we’re favoring the downside for IYR and upside for DRV.

The market’s hovering at all time highs … effectively masking the fact, air is going out of IYR.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

CORN: Breakout

Tracking fund CORN, has broken out of its five-month channel.

Price action is coming back to test and in the process, may be forming an inflection point.

This just out from ADAPT2030, has the food shortages accelerating.

The uninformed mistake food price rises as inflation. It’s an availability problem.

As reported late December here, there’s historical precedent, food comes first … then gold and silver.

No matter. The gold bulls power on. Buying into the metal and its tracking funds only to be whacked again and again at the most inopportune times.

Two reputable sources of long-term food supply are here and here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dollar Up, Market Down?

The dollar has been inversely correlated since March of last year.

A reversal was identified in this report which thus far, has proved correct.

Bonds are also showing higher in the pre-market, having met a measured move (wedge) target last week.

The UUP, weekly close has price action slowing its decline, stopping and then reversing. That’s where we are now.

Weekly MACD ticked up (slightly) last week and higher open this morning, would confirm the divergence.

Market sentiment readings as reported by J. Bravo (time stamp 1:00) are literally, off the charts.

On top of that, internet scuttlebutt over the weekend shows at this juncture, absolutely anything can happen.

Having a market stance (or position) that includes possibility of power outages, banks going off-line, internet disruptions and general overall chaos, would seem to be reasonable.

In line with that, entries were made in DRV last week as shown (not advice, not a recommendation):

Pre-market activity for IYR, points to a lower open, DRV higher.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Real Estate: Subdividing Lower

Lower highs, lower lows, real estate (IYR) is subdividing.

The weekly close (above) has upward thrusts getting shorter, stalling out, then reversing.

Note the massive volume; up over 234%, from the week prior.

Drilling down to the daily, price action rose slightly (last Friday) to close just under the axis line.

We’re still below the 23.6%, retrace as reported here.

Volume evaporated on the session; declining 60% from the day prior and indicating not much interest to the up-side.

This is the danger point where the risk is least. If price action continues higher from here, it’s possible IYR may attempt a new high.

Price action declining (more probable), indicates the pivot’s in place.

Right now, bonds are stretched; ready to reverse along with the dollar.

Those two markets may put the kibosh (big time) on risk assets if they short squeeze.

Recall that IYR did not follow the rest to new highs. For months, it’s been languishing, building congestion.

Stay Tuned.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Down. Why?

We have the usual suspects rolled out; providing expert analysis on why gold went down.

The answer is quite simple. It tested a trend break, then reversed.

If we look at the (close) chart of GLD, it broke an uptrend during the week of November 20th, last year; went lower and then back to test.

That test was rejected dramatically with Gold (GLD), heading significantly lower; getting whacked down over 5%, in just two days.

This is not bull market behavior.

Steven Van Metre’s assessment (at this juncture) that we’re in a deflation event is being shown correct. The lagging factor in the scenario is the overall market … still near all-time highs.

It’s true bonds broke lower (rates up) this week but that’s another event answered by technicals; the wedge formation, discussed here.

Both bonds and the dollar have set the stage for a swift reversal.

Just how that’ll affect an extended, obscenely overvalued, stretched, call options wild market with everybody all-in, is not known.

Getting back to Van Metre; he’s reported, during this past week, small traders/speculators added to short (bond) futures positions.

If there’s a signal bonds are stretched, ready to reverse, it’s the little-guy just now getting in (going short) …. right at the bottom; as usual.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Real Estate Dead

As markets power higher, real estate topped last November; its been dead ever since.

IYR is telling us something. That something may be it’s about to be one of, if not the leader to the downside.

The last report said IYR is breaking down. This morning’s action was an upward test, then reversal.

Testing at Fibonacci 23.6%, (shown above) then reversing indicates severe weakness.

Inverse fund DRV (3X inverse IYR) is moving back into its prior trading range (11.00 – 11.50) after pushing lower in the early session.

Today could be the day. The day were real estate (IYR) begins a dynamic drop to much lower levels.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Bonds Pulled Tight

Overnight and early pre-market, bonds have completed a measured move.

Using the 10-yr note (futures) as the proxy for overnight, we’ve updated the TLT chart to show the target (bottom of dashed line).

The low was hit overnight; now bonds are edging back higher.

It’s like a drawstring pulled tight.

As Livermore said years ago (in Reminiscences), the manipulators will push a stock to the sell levels they want but not too much.

Too much of a push will bring in more selling and they’ll lose control.

Bonds pulled tight but not too tight.

The long bond was already sold short the most in history. It’s possible speculators are even more short now.

Dollar also higher in overnight and pre-market; that could be shutting the trap for bears in both markets.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dollar Bears Trapped

Price action in Dollar Index (UUP), shows familiar signs of a trap.

Price action closed yesterday at the low … after a prior lower close.

This morning opened gap-higher and near yesterday’s highs.

Price action then went higher … setting the hook.

Anything can happen and the bears can find some extra muscle somewhere. One gets the sense though, we’re at a pivotal juncture.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

DRV Trend-Line

DRV is the 3X inverse tracking fund for real estate, IYR.

Price action is now breaking higher (IYR, lower).

The 2-Hour chart of DRV (above) shows the trend.

There’s always a chance price action at the trading range lows in IYR, is a potential reversal to the upside.

With the overall markets at new highs, and IYR dead-in-the-water, probabilities favor downside action (DRV higher).

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Real Estate First?

Real estate IYR, may be leading the way down

Price action has been at the lows for three days and not retracing higher.

The overall markets are at all time highs … IYR can’t seem to get going to the upside.

Well traded inverse funds for IYR are SRS (2X inverse) and DRV (3X inverse); not advice, not a recommendation

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.