Weekly, Wrap-Up

The Usual Suspects

Bogart

No. 1

Airplanes Dropping Like Flies.

A very brief search of the most recent crashes or incidents are here, here, here, here, here, and here.

It’s all just a coincidence or maybe it’s because of this.

The repercussions of on-going events are just getting started.

This is a long-haul chess game.

No. 2

Americans Take Up The Gauntlet … Go To Vegas

What a pathetic bunch of cowards.

If you’re blowing whatever’s left of your money (or credit), it’s likely you have no real marketable (high pay) skills, no talent, lazy, obese; so, we’re off to Vegas.

Add to that, we’re just at the start of the depression.

Patera, from Appalachia’s Homestead (time stamp 4:24) addresses the problem a little differently but her final assessment is the same.

It’s true, there are some barriers to learning a new skill.

Dan from i-Allegedly points out the high cost to get a CDL, to be a trucker.

However, those who are awake, those with their nose in the KJV Bible, those leaving the corrupt church (in droves), knew that current events were coming; they took action way before it became obvious.

Remember this post?

It’s been nearly two years, to the day.

No. 3

Deflation Indicators

Not all prices are rising.

As the real estate sector gets vaporized, we have the natural fall-out, building materials dropping in price.

Uneducated Economist reports here, that’s exactly what’s happening.

Price reductions as we’re going into the summer building season, is a massive indicator of evaporating demand.

No. 4

Food First … Then Gold & Silver

Everything is going according to (their) plan.

Yet another indicator of the current strange weather (warfare) that’s going to strain the system.

Here’s the link to the very first post that specifically referenced Genesis 41; posted on December 31, 2020.

As with the ‘Mask on, Mask off (linked above), how has the post aged?

Is it still relevant?

What about this quote … seemed extreme at the time.

They paid for the corn first, with gold and silver.  Then they paid with their livestock.  Then they paid by selling themselves into life-long slavery. We can equate that last part (slavery) as getting the vax.

No. 5

Chess Board Strategy

It’s a bitter pill to realize we’re in the long game. ‘Normal’, is not coming back … ever.

That does not mean there’re no opportunities. There are.

Those opportunities (if we survive) are/will be potentially life changing for the good.

The Sunday futures market opened about two hours ago and we’re up around +0.40%, in the S&P.

Let’s see if that spills over to the Monday open; remembering that we’re short the real estate sector with the finger on the sell trigger (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … “Easy Money”

After It’s Over, The Press Will State The Obvious

How many times have you heard after a move is nearly over, the financial press will say:

“Well, the easy money has already been made”?

They kept everybody on the wrong side long enough for the professionals to reap a windfall; then act as if you should have known it all along.

Back in 1992, during the presidential election, I watched as a major financial publication put our report after report how the economy was contracting, getting worse.

Then, after the election was over and the incumbent ousted, that very same publication’s next report stated the economy was not as bad as previously thought.

It was my first hint, something was wrong.

Not until many years later, when I determined (airplane) kerosene burning at 1,800 degrees Fahrenheit, could not melt steel at 3,400 degrees; did it all become very clear. 🙂

First Rodeo?

Not for me as you have probably guessed.

If we’re going to trade/speculate profitably in this (financial collapse environment), we need to be awake.

Wandering around with delusions of P/E ratios dancing in one’s head, is not going to translate to profits.

Which brings us to the following question:

Are we in the ‘easy money’ stage of (shorting) real estate?

Is this coming Monday, going to be a continuation to the downside in earnest?

Let’s take a look at the chart of IYR and see what it says.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

Technically speaking, IYR is in Wyckoff spring position (poised to move higher).

It penetrated below support and has come back to test.

The Problem Is:

Price action went straight down into support (for three-weeks, at least), penetrated, and has now come back up for a ‘test’.

Is more upside a high probability?

Short answer … No.

Could price go higher from here? Yes, anything can happen but it’s not the likely scenario.

Real Estate, IYR Daily Chart

The daily chart shows we’re still in a trading channel. Friday was/is, a test of the right-side trendline.

The smaller, hourly timeframes had their channel lines penetrated; so, we pull successively farther out (in time) to see if the overall structure has been violated.

Looking at the chart above, the channel is still in-effect.

Trading Activity

The table below, is from one of my firm’s trading spreadsheets (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s self-explanatory, showing a very busy two weeks.

The original position remains active; with Friday’s close of DRV 46.46, that represents an open gain of, + 40%

The Day Trade on Thursday, the 12th, was an attempt to increase the line. However, as the day progressed it became obvious that a reversal (or sorts) was in the works.

That day’s position was closed along with the one opened on the 11th, for an overall gain of + 3.85%

Next Leg, Lower ?

The position opened this past Friday was in anticipation of the next leg lower.

Note: The finger is always on the sell button in case the coming week shows more IYR, upside.

However, price action of IYR itself, is showing that it’s ‘respecting’ the Fibonacci projections as shown below.

Last week’s action confirmed and bounced off the 100%, projection level.

Putting the channel back in and compressing the chart gives us the following … yikes !!!

Summary

If IYR declines to the 161.8% projection, or even farther, expect there to be plenty of panic.

We should also expect to hear from our ever-helpful financial press when they say:

‘The easy money has already been made’

That of course, would probably be true (stating the obvious) and give us a potential confirmation to exit the position.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Economic Crash Landing …

Officially, out of Control

‘Out of control’, could actually be a good thing.

If the Fed’s admitted it’s out of their hands, that means markets could operate under real price discovery for the first time, since … well, 1913.

If that’s true, future Fed meetings and their subsequent pontifications will be meaningless as far as market reaction; no matter what they do.

Wyckoff said as early as 1902, prices move by a force of their own that have no connection to real values.

Unless proven otherwise, we’ll use the ‘out of control’ paradigm on a go forward basis.

It should be noted, while moving forward with that new paradigm, there’s a massive herd still trying to figure out what the Fed ‘has to do’.

Newsflash: The Fed does not ‘have to do’ anything.

Matter of fact, they’ve already done it. The elites have made windfalls, selling (along with the Fed, itself) at the top.

Real Estate: ‘Pig in the Python’

The last update showed a trendline that’s been subsequently broken; not by much but price action has definitely pushed through.

The hourly chart of IYR, has been updated to show where we are now … just after the open.

At this juncture, price action’s in a down-channel.

Positioning

Best case scenario would be for IYR, to contact the right channel line and reverse; thus, allowing a low risk point to increase the short via DRV (not advice, not a recommendation).

That may happen this session or next … or, of course, it may not happen at all. That’s the way of the markets.

Summary

Evidence continues to pour in that real estate’s finished.

This latest post from Scott Walters has the rich selling off their luxury homes … and fast.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Showdown !

Let The Lawsuits Begin

Let’s see …

We already have lawsuits for ‘The Speck’, injury and death.

Then we have the lawsuits because the stock price went down (always happens).

Now, we’ll have lawsuits for paying too much over asking price, because my real estate agent told me to.

Couple that with grocery store shelves going empty, power outages, fake wars (with real consequences), more corporate layoffs and voila!

The court case for any of the above, might be heard before 2030 … if you’re lucky, not homeless and we’re all still alive.

Was That, The Bounce ?

Yesterday, Wednesday was supposed to be the last chance for the bulls. The release of the CPI, being touted as a potential upward ‘catalyst’ for an already oversold market.

We even had helpful advice like this, saying ‘it’s so bearish, it’s bullish’.

Buried within that article was the caveat, extreme negative sentiment contrary indicators, only work in bull markets.

We’re not only in a bear market, it’s a full-blown collapse (so far). We’re on track for vaporization; all of which leads us to the market at hand: Real estate.

Real Estate, IYR, Daily Chart

The following chart contains a Fibonacci projection tool, showing levels from 23.6% to 100%.

Lower values such as 161.8%, are currently, off the screen.

It’s obvious, the market’s ‘respecting’ these levels as it hesitates (to confirm) before continuing lower.

However, the real story is on the hourly chart below.

Yesterday’s bounce is shown as well as a trendline.

The scary part, or good part depending on one’s perspective, that trendline’s declining at approximately 99%, annualized … effectively straight-down.

E.F. Hutton, Vice Chairman, Loeb

The late Chairman of E.F. Hutton said in his book ‘The Battle For Investment Survival’:

‘Real opportunities are rare. When you find one, it must be used to its fullest extent’.

This site adheres to tenets laid out by three masters: Livermore, Wyckoff and Loeb:

Strategy, Tactics, and Focus.

Shorting IYR via DRV (DRV-22-02) is our approach to what looks to be a significant opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).

Summary

As long as IYR, price action continues to follow the trend lower, we’ll maintain short.

Anything can happen and the trend be violated … even at the next session about to start in 20-minutes.

However, at this juncture, probabilities for IYR, continue to point down.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Weekly Wrap-Up

The Usual Suspects

It’s about two hours before the Sunday futures open and we’re about to see what happens next.

In the meantime, the links below are from the week just past or of special note for our bear-market conditions.

Like Mike Tyson says …

‘Everybody’s got a plan ’till you get hit in the face’.

The following are not in any particular order.

No. 1

The ARKK Takes On Water

It can probably be safely stated, this ARKK, was not likely built to Biblical specifications.

Maybe they used the wrong Wood. 🙂

No. 2

Hold The Narrative At All Costs

If one lives long enough, eventually you may reach the point where you’re tired of being played.

Once that happens, eyes are opened, you see the narrative clearly; that’s it’s everywhere.

Take this link for example … oh so many narratives.

Like defining ‘investor’ and ‘trader’; defining how each of those two behave in the markets.

The article surmises that investors think traders are not as smart as they because … well, investors have more letters after their names (CFA, CFP, CTA, and on … maybe even PhD … whooo).

Traders, well, they’re just circus monkeys and volatility junkies.

This narrative is beat into the collective conscious incessantly as far as can be remembered. It keeps the herd (investors, traders alike) firmly in the box.

Remember this link?

However, the great speculators back in the day, Livermore, Wyckoff, Loeb, were none of those things.

Their actions were determined on what the market was saying about itself.

Obviously, if you’re isolated, focused on what price is actually doing, not watching the news, then you’re not part of the herd.

You’re going against the (established and approved) narrative, a dangerous animal indeed.

No. 3

Bear Market Links

It’s time to brush up on bear market strategies.

Links are here, here, here, and here.

No. 4

Collapse, Baked-In

When you have stupidity like this … who needs earnings?

No. 5

Who is Shooting at Whom?

Here’s a story you won’t see on the mainstream news.

No. 6

Tulip Bulb Mania, is Over

When millions of people are starving to death, I’ll sure be glad I invested in a ‘tweet‘ … Not.

Way back in Middle School history class, I could not understand the mania.

I thought to myself … “It’s just a bunch of flowers, right?”

It would have been nice for the teacher to say:

“When you get to adulthood, you’ll be surrounded by morons”.

No. 7

Canada’s Mandates Explained

At last!!!

Here is an easy-to-follow, scientific explanation.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Last Time … is not … This Time

The Rule of Alternation

That’s it in a nutshell. What happened last time, won’t happen this time.

The market reveals its own secrets; you just have to know where to look.

An entire industry has been (purposely) built to make sure the ‘average investor’ never finds the truth of the markets.

That industry is the financial analysis industry; the one with the P/E ratios, Debt-to-Equity, and so on.

Sure, it was a tongue-in-cheek post to use the fact that Carvana had no P/E (linked here).

I’m not certain if they ever had a P/E; probably not.

However, that financial, i.e., fundamental(s) fact, did not keep the stock from going up over 4,529%, in four years.

It should be noted, the Carvana analysis was done on a Saturday (as has this one). At the very next trading session, CVNA posted lower, started its decline in earnest and never looked back.

Not saying that exact thing (timing it to the day) will happen with our next candidate real estate; as said before, part of Wyckoff analysis (a lot of it, actually) is straight-up intuition.

The good part from a computer manipulated and controlled market perspective, intuition can’t be quantified.

So, that’s your edge.

Let’s move on to ‘last time is not this time’ and see what the real estate market IYR, is telling us.

Weekly Chart, IYR

We’ve got the weekly un-marked chart of IYR, below.

The ‘alternation’ is there.

Here it is, close-up.

The first leg lower had some initial smoothness but quickly became choppy and overlapping.

Not so, now.

We’re essentially heading straight down.

Fundamentals

From a fundamental standpoint, real estate is finished. However, it’s been finished for a long time.

The fundamentals won’t and can’t tell anyone what’s likely to happen at the next trading session … or any other session.

The market itself (shown above) is saying the probabilities are for a continued decline; posting smooth long bars until some meaningful demand is encountered.

As shown on the last post, if the trading channel is in-effect, that (chart) demand is a long way down.

Positioning

Shorting IYR via DRV, has been covered in previous posts (search for DRV-22-02).

The following weekly chart, is marked up with two arrows.

Arrow No. 1

Initial short position via DRV was opened late in the day on April 28th; the day before the market broke significantly lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Arrow No. 2

As the market headed lower during the week just ended, the size of the DRV position was increased by 36%.

Currently, the gain on the total position is about +22%.

At this juncture, the DRV stop is located well in the green in the unlikely event we get a sharp IYR, upward move in the coming week.

Summary

Under ‘normal’ conditions one could expect some kind of upward bounce in the days ahead.

However, as shown already with big cap leader PLD, the situation’s anything but normal.

Highlighted in earlier posts, biotech is leading the way with SPBIO, currently down – 59.8%, from its highs.

Biotech IBB, with chief cook and (globalist) bottle washer Moderna (MRNA), is down – 36.2%.

As Dan from i-Allegedly has stated time and again, we’re already in a depression.

So, buckle your seatbelt Dorothy …

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Channels Lower

Stay In The Lane

Real estate’s IYR, is trading in a channel that’s declining at around -94%, annualized.

The channel was identified and first presented, in this post.

Let’s take a look at how things are going thus far.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly Chart

The chart below, is a close-in view of current action.

The black arrows are ‘hits’ on the channel lines, providing confirmation of its existence.

From the lower-most channel line hit on the left side (the ‘demand’ side) to the first channel hit on the right side (the ‘supply’ side) is a Fibonacci 13-Weeks; adding more confirmation to the channel’s validity.

The next chart pulls out and extends the channel to show the potential of the move.

The ‘Damand’ Location identifies the point at which price action would need to decline (at this juncture) to contact significant demand if this channel is in-effect.

That is, if the channel has been identified properly. If so, it’s a long … long way down.

Summary

Currently maintaining short with trade DRV-22-02 (not advice, not a recommendation).

The stop location has been moved to DRV 37.80 and is most likely going to be moved higher depending on the close of the day.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Now, We See The Violence …

… Inherent In the System’

It may as well be a Monty Python skit.

The number of opinions forecasts, pontifications and gesticulations have reached levels beyond the absurd.

Everybody’s important and has some intellectual and/or philosophical missive to promulgate.

We have great levels of insight like the selected items below. As promised, these comments were taken from the article linked in the last post.

“I don’t need to pay some 78 year old to hold 1/2 my money in cash”

“What a joke. We’re heading for multi-year blow-off top”

“78 year old fund manager loses his azz … markets going nowhere but up”

“Parabolic increase to nosebleed levels and an epic explosion 3 years from now.”

Seems our idiot/lazy Boomers, Gen-X-rs, Millennials, Gen-Z-rs, and just about everybody else, is the genius in the room; except for the 78-year-old.

He’s just a buffoon.

If someone has no real skill, experience or initiative, they resort to trash-talk like we see above.

Getting the right experience is the hard part.

Having experience in the markets involves many years of education (i.e. losses).

Just for documentation’s sake, let’s take a look at two examples of what experience looks like; each in their own respective industries.

Exhibit A:

Go ahead, check out this Bubba from Amarillo, Texas.

His customers drive from neighboring states, hundreds, if not thousands of miles away to have him rebuild their transmissions.

Within the first 5-minutes of the video above, there’s probably 30-years of experience on display.

I would suspect his rebuilds go for top-dollar; rightly so.

Then, we have this:

Exhibit B:

Yesterday’s market action, and today’s, has happened before.

That is:

A sharp multi percentage point, headline grabbing spike higher (within a down market), that’s immediately reversed the very next day.

Not only that, but the reversal also signified a bear market had started in earnest.

S&P 500, SPY, Daily Chart

Let’s set the stage.

In our example, the S&P had already topped and reversed.

It spent the next seven months heading lower and then retracing upward to an eventual downside reversal.

The next leg down continued, but then a few days later, there’s a massive, headline grabbing, upward spike.

Is the bear market over?

Is this the signal to buy the dip like our ‘experts’ above think for the current situation?

The next day, price action reversed the entire gain (like it has done today).

The chart shows the result.

From a personal standpoint, a 78-year old that’s still mentally sharp enough to provide his services and is not an obvious (globalist) sell-out the likes of which are on CNBC, then I’m very keen on what he would have to say.

His message: It’s the biggest bear market of his life.

Secondly, as Dr. Elder has said, ‘Trading is an old man’s game’. A good memory is critical to creating an edge.

In our example, I remember that upward spike well.

It was a Thursday.

The next day, price action reversed hard to the downside.

It never looked back for nine months.

Summary:

Is the S&P scenario described above, where we are now?

History never repeats itself exactly.

However, one can propose with some level of confidence, if today was the kickoff to the next leg, it has potential to be the fastest, farthest down price action in market history (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A Day To Remember

Was Today The Inflection Point?

There were so many comments on the ZeroHedge article (linked here) about the musings of a 78-year-old money manager (effectively saying he’s an idiot … a dolt), we’re going to use those comments for reference on a go-forward basis.

Everybody has an opinion but nobody’s actually looking at what the market is saying about itself.

That’s where the answers will be found … no matter one’s personal bias.

Looking at real estate IYR, we see that price attempted to get above the axis line shown but did not make it.

Before we go further, a correction: The last post said the stop on DRV-22-02 was located at DRV 32.71.

The stop is actually located at DRV 37.21. Numbers got swapped.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

It’s interesting to note, ProLogis (PLD), the largest cap in the sector did not close higher for the session.

If IYR, with other indices do not have a decisive follow-through (stopping out DRV-22-02, in the process) at tomorrow’s session, the Ponzi scheme’s in serious trouble.

As already stated, events may happen faster than anyone expects.

Summary

We’ll leave off with this just out from ice-age-farmer; linked here.

The collapse of the entire food supply has been building (sorry, in the planning stages) for years.

It’s intentional.

Does anyone think that ‘raising rates into weakness’ is not also intentional?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Doesn’t Wait

Moving Ahead of The Fed

Waiting, waiting, waiting … ‘gonna die, waiting.

For real estate IYR, the waiting part’s, already over.

This post back on April 27th, identified the trade set-up.

The prior all-time highs analysis for IYR, failed with an up-thrust reversal.

That told us, downside forces were in control.

Adding to that, we had the largest cap equity in the sector ProLogis (PLD), showing a massive downward thrust lower; possibly the largest one-day event, ever.

Now, there’s more.

The two charts below are in 3-Day increments. As of this morning, we’re in a new three-day period.

For three-days just ended, down-thrust energy for PLD, posted levels not seen since before February of 2005 !

Not even the wipe-out during the Financial Crisis of 2008, generated a similar 3-Day period.

What that means for PLD, at least, it’s in a territory of its own … literally off the chart.

ProLogis PLD, 3-Day

Compressing the chart to put it in perspective. The data below, goes all the way back to February 4th, of 2005.

The Fed-Man Cometh

All of that does not mean real estate can’t rebound higher after 2:00 p.m., EST (11:32 a.m. EST, as of this post).

Anything can happen.

The stop for the short position via DRV (DRV-22-02) is currently set at DRV 32.71 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Summary

At the open, IYR was lower and has continued lower but has not posted a new daily low.

That leaves the door open to the upside if there’s enough perceived ‘relief’ from any Fed comments.

The main objective of this post is to put forth the possibility, events may happen faster than anyone expects.

If there’s any kind of rally, it’s likely to be brief.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279