Category Archives: Bonds

Sunday Night Futures

May 18, 2025 By in Bonds, CVNA, CVNA-25-02, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, ZeroHedge

USA, Credit Rating Downgrade

Providing fuel to the interest rate fire of yesterday’s post, we have this and this. Website link here.

Adding to that, is the ‘big picture’ on US debt, i.e., it’s “unsustainable”, link here.

The strategy on the debt, is to have the situation (known) in the background; so, when things really implode, one is not caught ‘off guard’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

For example, what’s going to happen to ‘rate’ related commerce (like auto sales) if interest rates launch higher?

Short Covering

Short covering on a mass scale is not a bull market phenomenon.

In the past week or so, we’ve had another near record amount of buying, links here and here.

All Quiet

As of this post (7:45 p.m., EST), the markets are holding steady.

The only position open, is short Carvana CVNA-25-02, with a stop, nearly hit on Friday, at 304.61 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Interest Rates … Higher

May 17, 2025 By in Bonds, David Weis, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TLT 3 Comments

TLT … ‘What Do You See?’

With TLT, poised to break lower (rates higher), make sure you’ve got your popcorn ready; the show is about to begin. 🙂

The next Fed meeting is one month away. A lot can happen before then.

Of course, by some unforeseen event, bonds could recover and move higher with rates lower. Anything can happen.

However, when looking at the long-term chart of TLT, a breakdown appears imminent (not advice, not a recommendation).

Long Bonds TLT, Monthly

Back in the day, David Weis (see About), never asked me what I thought, or about the next earnings release, or any other non-productive pursuit.

No, the question was always: “What do you see?”

If bonds break lower and rates go (significantly) higher, just think of the chaos.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Breakdown … Part 2

April 20, 2025 By in Bonds, David Weis, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter, Interest Rates, Prechter, TLT, Wyckoff

Largest Downside Thrust … Ever

In the past few weeks, it seems like the markets have been whacked with a lot of, ‘the largest, ever’.

Trading in bonds, specifically TLT, is no exception.

While the media and pundits alike, deflect with ‘who’s doing the selling’ (hint: it’s not important), we’re going to look at the harder question of ‘what does it mean?’

Kick-Off, or Capitulation

Borrowing from research and writings of Wyckoff, Weis, and Prechter, when we get such a huge thrust downward (chart below), it’s typically one of two events:

A massive kick-off to much lower prices or a capitulation that washes-out the weak hands.

A bond upside reversal (rates lower) is a common sign of nearing or active economic downturn (not advice, not a recommendation).

In this interview with Greg Hunter, Ed Dowd covers the topic … the expectation for the reversal. However, that interview, was before the massive thrust lower.

Long Bond Proxy, TLT, Weekly

For years, it’s been one failed upside (reversal) after another.

Is this time, different?

The right side (magenta arrows) shows unprecedented thrust and volume.

So far, there has been a weak recovery to 38.2%, retrace of the recent down-move.

If that retrace level holds, with bonds continuing lower (rates higher), it does not bode well for the ‘capitulation’ narrative.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Breakdown … Part 1

April 19, 2025 By in Bonds, Goldman, TLT, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

The Big Picture

If things don’t change soon, the wheels have come off the bond market (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this point, it’s common knowledge the (U.S. Treasury) bull market of forty-years, ended in March of 2020.

It’s been nothing but rates ratcheting higher, ever since.

Recession Reversal … Where?

However, a strange thing happened on the way to the anticipated bond reversal … typically, a long-time indicator of an impending recession.

Just weeks ago, during the market meltdown with the largest trading volume ever recorded, bonds did not respond as expected.

The Blip

During that wipe-out, bonds (TLT) blipped higher into a false breakout, a Wyckoff Up-Thrust, and have since collapsed on the largest weekly downside (thrust) energy and volume ever seen.

Next update, the charts.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Other (Bull) Side of Nvidia

February 25, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Cramer, Interest Rates, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX 1 Comment

Who’s Is Taking Your Trade?

As a trading professional, you must know (or have a good idea) who’s on the other side of your trade.

Whom are you competing against?

It’s just one of many questions to be asked (along with price action) when estimating the opportunity; whether long or short.

Well, ladies and gentlemen, here’s some of what’s on the bullish side of Nvidia, link here.

So, according to the video, tech stocks (and Nvidia) went down because of the U.S. 10-yr Treasury?

Think about it. ‘Likes’ vs. ‘Dislikes’ on that video (as of this post) are over 13:1.

How about this:

Nvidia went down because it posted the largest ever price action down-thrust; then, went through a test of that action, completed the test, then reversed to the downside.

Wow, sounds so clear when put that way. 🙂

With that, let’s get back to reality.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Earnings are scheduled for after-hours tomorrow. Things could get interesting.

In the meantime, we have a demand line and possible channel.

As of this post (10:47 a.m., EST), NVDA has sliced through support at the 129 – 130, level with ease.

We should expect a test of that support. However, at this point, price action is quite weak (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

ProLogis … Stretched to Breaking?

February 16, 2025 By in Bonds, DRV, DRV-25-06, Interest Rates, IYR, PLD, Positions, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TLT

Reversal and Test

The last update on ProLogis link here, said we had ‘evidence of a struggle’.

That struggle made one more attempt to move higher, posted a new daily high, then reversed.

In the process, real estate IYR, reversed as well; bonds, TLT, closed lower for the week (rates higher).

That brings us back to ProLogis.

ProLogis PLD, Daily Close

The labels correspond to the following S: Spring, U: Up-Thrust, T: Test

With this type of set-up, the expectation is for PLD, to post lower right along with real estate (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Big-Cap, ProLogis … Reversal

February 9, 2025 By in Bonds, David Weis, DRV, DRV-25-04, Interest Rates, IYR, PLD, Positions, TLT, Wyckoff 2 Comments

Evidence of a Struggle

Insight from the masters, Wyckoff and Weis.

When at a (significant) trend reversal, we want to see ‘evidence of a struggle’.

Looking at ProLogis PLD (largest Cap and weight, in IYR), that’s exactly what we see.

Exhaustion and (potential) reversal.

ProLogis PLD, Daily

Between the two blue lines is a resistance zone.

Note how each subsequent day (after the magenta arrow) is losing energy … or is a series of energy losses.

With prior updates here, and here, probabilities suggest continued (PLD, IYR) downside or possible sideways action (not advice, not a recommendation),

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

First, Real Estate … Now, Bonds

February 7, 2025 By in Bonds, DRV, DRV-25-04, Interest Rates, IYR, Positions, Real Estate, TLT Tags: , , , 1 Comment

Rates, Back on The Rise

Yesterday, was the reversal set-up for real estate (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, it’s bonds

The bond chart below shows TLT, in a near-perfect trading channel.

Long Bonds TLT, Weekly

In addition to the channel, there’s a Fibonacci time correlation.

Or course, this could be the week (or next) where bonds break out to the upside.

Anything can happen.

For now, price action remains in the down-channel.

The next item shows we’re potentially at some kind of transition point.

Retail, ‘All-In’

Behind the scenes, reports like this, tell us the ‘retail investor’, i.e., the least informed and least disciplined participant is literally, ‘all-in’ the market.

What could go wrong?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Treasury ‘Rout’ At End?

January 19, 2025 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, TLT, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

What Does The ‘Market’ Say?

According to this link, the downside rout in U.S. Treasuries is coming to an end.

Real or fake? You make the call.

Let’s go to the bond market and see what it says.

Long Bonds, TLT, Daily

When looking at the chart, we see a potential upside breakout (blip) from the wedge.

From an experience standpoint, extremely narrow wedge patterns posting near or at the apex before breakout, rarely if ever, produce a lasting move (not advice, not a recommendation).

We could get more of the ‘blip’ higher. However, a ‘blip’ is not a directional move. 🙂

Jawboning The Market

Anyone dictating what the market will or won’t do or what it should do (in the opinion of your website host) is misguided, or inexperienced.

The market itself decides what it’s going to do.

As Wyckoff said a hundred years ago (1902, to be exact), the market is moving based on its ‘own forces’ that are not connected to valuations.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Market (TLT) Blowout

January 8, 2025 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, TBT, TLT Tags: , , ,

Massive ‘Exit’

Even the dog is getting out of the bond market 🙂

For long-time visitors, we see years of ‘strategy’, playing out in real time.

One tenet of that strategy is/was, the bond bull-market (TLT) is over. It’s a new paradigm (not advice, not a recommendation).

Repeat Post From 3/17/20

Nearly five years ago, was this:

Back then … “we may be at the all time top”.

Extreme or More

So, it’s taken nearly five-years for the market to reach the extreme discussed here.

Does that mean we’re at some kind of bottom? Is it really ‘tax related’ as suggested in the link?

That’s always possible.

However, an alternate view of what’s going on is here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Enough said.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279