Category Archives: DUST

Newmont Holds The Key

December 18, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Livermore, NEM, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 3 Comments

‘Last Man Standing’

Founded by William Boyce Thompson in 1916, Newmont (NEM) was around over a century ago during Livermore and Wyckoff’s day.

Thompson is center in the photo with President, Warren G. Harding at left.

Wyckoff and Thompson were interconnected.

In Wyckoff’s autobiography, he writes about working for Thompson’s firm (Thompson, Towle & Co.) in 1910.

During that time, he describes no fewer than two stock ‘manipulation’ schemes; one by renowned James R. Keene and the other by Thompson himself during a deal-gone-bad with the Guggenheims.

Also in 1910, Wyckoff published his seminal work: Studies In Tape Reading. If there’s any one book to read concerning how markets work, ‘Studies ..’ is that book.

Wyckoff had first-hand exposure into market operations by the wealthy and super wealthy. More importantly, he saw how those transactions showed themselves on the tape.

Last check, a first edition ‘Studies’ went for around $3,500. A quick search as of this post, turns up nothing currently available.

For those who complain ‘it’s rigged’, to that we can say, ‘it’s always been rigged’.

Determine what those ‘rigging’, are trying to accomplish and you may have a trade.

Now, to the market at hand: Newmont Mining.

It’s the key; the largest cap equity in the Senior Mining Index (GDX).

Newmont, NEM

The daily chart:

For those who have been with this site for a while, you may instantly see the set-up: Spring to Up-Thrust.

The marked-up chart makes it clear.

Moving in a little closer for additional clues:

We can see from the volume itself, there were a huge number of transactions this past Friday.

NEM penetrated long established resistance.

In so doing, it set off a massive number of orders: Buy orders, sell orders, sell-short.

Senior Mining Index: GDX

The other part of the story and the one that weights it to the bears:

While NEM, is at multi-month highs, senior miners GDX, is nowhere near its highs.

Daily chart, GDX:

What does that mean?

It means the market is ‘thinning-out’

The professionals and maybe some investors alike, are abandoning the non-performing lesser cap equities; pouring funds into the last man standing NEM, in hopes that it will keep moving higher.

It’s desperation and signals market weakness.

As always, anything can happen and bulls may somehow take control.

However, from the charts themselves, hyper-stretched major indices coupled with insiders bailing out the most in history, uneducated ‘retail’ willingly stepping up to hold the bag, it does not look good for any bulls … gold or otherwise.

Summary:

We could find ourselves in a situation similar to the oil market in mid-2014 where it spontaneously deflated for eighteen months … nary a blip higher all the way down.

With that, we’re maintaining short via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Before The Open

December 17, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions 1 Comment

Is Today The Day ?

Is today the day we find out who’s really in control?

The day where it’s either inflation or deflation?

It’s about 30-minutes before the open.

Pre-market action has gold (GLD), right at the Fibonacci 50% retrace level shown in the 4-Hour chart.

Gold (GLD) 4-Hour

Looking at the chart we see the following:

The up-thrust from November, was an island gap reversal (bearish).

During the Fed announcement (Wednesday, the 15th), price action penetrated weekly lows and set up a spring condition (bullish).

We’re at Fibonacci Day 3, of the spring and current trading at 50% retrace in the pre-market (neutral).

Pre-market trading is at an axis line which also indicated prior resistance on November 30th (bearish).

If price action opens or trades at the 50% level, it would also up-thrust the November 30th print high; therefore, creating a potential reversal condition (bearish).

Summary:

There’s a lot going on in the gold market.

The ‘man on the street’ YouTubers are screaming inflation and the need to “exit the system”.

That’s a great idea (exit). Just exactly how does that work anyway? A topic for another time.

Meanwhile, here we are.

We’re doing what price action’s telling us to do. That is, stay short until proven wrong (not advice, not a recommendation).

That proof, for bulls or bears could come today.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Here We Go Again …

December 16, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions

Repeating Pattern(s)

“Spring to Up-Thrust”

That’s where we are now.

Yesterday’s update was out before gold (GLD) penetrated weekly lows.

Those who don’t understand the markets, will say it’s the Fed.

Those who do understand the markets (the trading pros) won’t say but keep it to themselves.

They’ll let the gold bulls think their day has come. We have hyperinflation at last!

As always, it could be true.

The more probable, price action based outcome; we’re in yet another push past resistance to trap the bulls.

Gold (GLD)

As of this post (about an hour into the session) the daily chart is in up-thrust position and 38%, retrace level simultaneously.

Zoom-in

So, it’s yet another danger point. If bulls are to take control, this is the spot.

If they fail, they are trapped yet again; if so, the next down-leg may be brutal indeed.

Positioning:

Maintaining short via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation) with ‘cover-shorts-finger’ close the trigger.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Bulls … Hit In The Head

December 15, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold Miners, UUP, Van Metre, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Not Waiting Around For The Fed

It’s been an abusive relationship for the gold bulls.

Following the corporate media (always a mistake) and YouTuber’s alike (sometimes a mistake), only to find out it’s all been a lie.

Gold (GLD), looks like it’s solidifying its breakaway gap (chart below) and simultaneously confirming a potential trading channel.

In what may be related news, ZeroHedge reports some of the internet is down … again.

Note the websites having problems involve food, payroll services and of course, entertainment.

Separately, the dollar (UUP) just made a new weekly high as its rally continues. In Steven Van Metre’s Sunday Night update (time stamp: 18:01), if the dollar breaks higher above UUP 26 or 27, then “… all the wheels come off ….”

Which brings us to the gold market.

Gold (GLD), Weekly Chart

The chart reviews the recent up-thrust (reversal) that was accompanied by hysterical … bordering on unhinged insane press coverage of an imminent break higher.

Obviously, that didn’t happen.

Zoom version

In addition to the reversal and breakaway gap, there could be a trading channel as well.

That’s a good thing for the bears as it gives a more clear exit area … negation (or break) of that channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Zoom version

Of course, anything can happen. The Fed announcement is about two hours away.

However, it looks like gold and miners alike, are not waiting around … potentially beginning their decline in earnest.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Producer Prices … ‘Explode’

December 14, 2021 By in DUST, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions

Yet, Gold Heads Lower ?

It just doesn’t add up.

U.S. producer prices explode to record high and gold heads lower.

Is anyone paying any attention?

Apparently, not.

Today’s trip to the office supply store, had those employees and some customers alike, still putting toilet paper on their face in an attempt to ward off goblins … unseen.

Meanwhile, down in Kiwi-Land, looks like the Prime Minister has declared the coast is clear for orgies up to 25-people.

Talk about, “In the days of Noah …” but, I digress.

Gold (GLD), posted lower and the miners GDX, did as well.

The nuance with the miners, we may have just seen a pivot lower … increasing the rate of descent.

Senior Miners, GDX

We’ll use the same chart scaling from yesterday’s update.

Looking closely, today’s bar pulled away from the right-side trend-line just a bit.

Next, the same chart but on a 4-Hour time-frame

Note how a new (increased angle) trendline can be drawn.

The next chart zooms-in

There have been four, four-hour hits on the new more aggressive downtrend line.

That new line (thus far) is declining at about -94%, on an annualized basis.

Summary

If this is a more aggressive pivot lower, it’s very early in the trend. The next session can easily negate the trend or just as easily, provide confirmation.

Maintaining short via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Expectations’ Are Not ‘Reality’

December 13, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions 1 Comment

Man On The Street … Inflation To Skyrocket

Even after gold and the miners have reversed lower, the press still implores gold to head higher.

Like something out of Moby Dick … even after Ahab is dead, he still beckons.

The above link gives us another report on ‘inflation expectations’ at a new record high.

Near the bottom, the text says that survey respondents expect ‘gold to continue acceleration higher’.

The problem: Gold’s not accelerating and currently, is not going anywhere.

The statement (or belief) is completely false.

Senior Miners, GDX

The short positioning continues (not advice, not a recommendation)

The daily chart of GDX, shows price action hugging the right-side trend-line. Each tap and reversal provides more data on potential direction lower.

With the understanding an exit could be required at any moment, the hits on the right side are being used to increase short positioning (not advice, not a recommendation).

The zoom chart above, shows every short entry, except one, at a lower price (higher for DUST).

Summary:

Today’s ‘expectations’ report was released at 11:12, a.m.

If the day’s narrow-range bar is the best the gold miners can do with such high ‘inflation’, there must be something else more powerful at work (to the downside).

Maintaining short until the market itself says to get out (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Inflation … Hot or Not ?

December 10, 2021 By in Dollar, DUST, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Inflation, Livermore, Wyckoff

Monetary Does Not Equal Asset

If there ever was a CPI report to completely break the ‘inflation’ narrative, this was it.

Several articles, here, here, and here, all saying essentially the same thing … skyrocketing ‘inflation’.

If that really was true, why is the 5,000-year-old hedge against inflation (gold) not responding … and even worse, heading lower?

That’s because, it’s all rigged, man !! (cue, Tommy Chong).

Well, it has always been rigged.

Both Wyckoff and Livermore talked about that ‘rigging’ way back in 1921, when Wyckoff interviewed Livermore about his trading methods. Later, in 1922, a series of articles on Livermore was published in Wyckoff’s ‘Magazine of Wall Street’ (a forerunner to Barron’s).

The point is, we’re not interested in who is doing the rigging. That’s what the press tries to find out (a waste of time). The real question is, what are those ‘rigging’ trying to accomplish?

Answer that, and you may have a potential trade set-up.

We’ve got supply chain, controlled-demolition with corresponding asset price inflation; the kicker is, gold and the dollar, say we’re in some kind of monetary deflation.

Senior Miners, GDX Confirming Trend

Price action in the gold market and the miners confirm that (deflation) assessment … for now.

Zoom-in on trend line contacts.

Summary

Based on the articles linked above, if there ever was a data-set release that would launch gold (and the miners) higher, today would be the day … right?

Both Wyckoff and Livermore did not concern themselves with what ‘should’ be happening. They were focused on what ‘is’ happening.

Gold and the miners are (and have been) moving lower.

As yesterday’s post said, we’ll remain short (not advice, not a recommendation) until the market itself says to exit.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Battle for Investment Survival

December 9, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, Gold Miners, Loeb, Positions 1 Comment

Late Vice Chairman, E.F. Hutton, Gerald M. Loeb

‘Opportunities Are Rare’

… And when you find one, you must use it to its maximum extent.’

That was the admonition from Gerald M. Loeb, in the above titled book.

It’s the exact opposite of ‘diversification’. The professional traders/speculators know this and so focus on a few or just one opportunity.

The months-long bullish hysteria in the gold market, gave an advance clue it might be a significant opportunity; the opportunity for a low-risk trade opposite the crowd (not advice, not a recommendation).

So far, that’s correct.

The gold bulls are trapped. Such events can go on much longer than anyone expects.

With that said, we’re focused exclusively on this market until it falls apart, we exit, or there’s another opportunity.

Now, on to the Senior Miners, GDX

GDX

We’ll get straight to the marked-up chart.

Looking at price action on a closing basis, the past four trading days were a test. The print high was on Tuesday (31.58) and the close high was yesterday (31.49).

The test was on underside resistance and looking at the chart, that underside was also an axis line.

Next, we see at least one trading channel with the possibility of an extension to other channel lines.

If these other channel lines are in-effect … meaning we’re really in the wider channel(s) but it’s not yet verified, that represents some serious downside potential.

Positioning

The past three trading sessions allowed the opportunity to increase the short position via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).

A previous post said that positioning was essentially complete. However, the market kept providing opportunity to go short.

Market action directs trading action. The total size (via DUST) was increased by about 8.7% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … Test & Reverse

December 7, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Van Metre, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Any Buying Support Left ?

Not if you look at the volume profile.

Steven Van Metre, in his Sunday Night Charts (time stamp 12:20), shows the precarious situation of GDX.

There’re about 90-minutes left to go in this session.

It looks like GDX is/has tested underside resistance and down-trend simultaneously. For GDX to break higher, it would have to get through that resistance.

As always, anything can happen but we need to remind ourselves, the gold bulls are already trapped … having bought at the mid-November breakout.

If still holding, they’re now deep in the red.

Under such conditions, each down move serves to set the (bear) hook even more.

If we use this just released article from ZeroHedge, we’re nowhere near any kind of capitulation and upside reversal.

Senior Miners, GDX

The un-marked daily chart

And now …

With zoom

We’re at a confluence of resistance; the downtrend and the underside of price action.

Let’s keep in mind, the overall markets (S&P, Dow, Nasdaq) are still oscillating around their all-time highs. Volatility has increased as the trend appears to be changing.

Gold and the miners are nowhere near all-time highs.

A century ago, Wyckoff showed how to spot markets that would decline the fastest and farthest under bear market conditions (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s not the high-flyer we’re looking for … no, it’s the laggard.

That’s the one to pick.

It’s already weak and once the buoyancy of the general market evaporates, the bottom may fall out.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tech Talk: Gold Miners (GDX)

December 4, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GLD, Gold Miners, Positions, Prechter

Fibonacci Channel

Is there more pain ahead for the gold bulls?

Short answer: Yes

That is, unless the current patterns in price action change.

From a professional trader’s standpoint, one has to be on-watch for two things:

First:

Be mentally flexible enough to recognize the trade is falling apart and then exit.

Second:

As Prechter put it years ago, be mentally prepared to accept the huge gain.

At this juncture, what is the chart of GDX, telling us?

Senior Miners (GDX), Daily

The un-marked chart.

Marking-up with Fibonacci time sequence.

Adding-in some trend lines.

Zoom out to show the big picture.

Summary:

From low-close, to high-close, the counter trend move took a Fibonacci 34-days.

In the process, it appears that price action is now moving within a trading channel.

In addition, the counter-trend print high on 11/16/21, was close to a 38%, retrace level (not shown) of the entire move from the peak on 8/5/20, to the 9/29/21 low.

Positioning

The last update detailed how a short position was opened in the miners (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this juncture, price action continues to indicate lower prices ahead.

The short is being maintained.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279