Category Archives: Excess Deaths

The ‘Event Horizon’

September 16, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, CBDC, Daniela Cambone, Edward Dutton, Excess Deaths, LABD, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 3 Comments

Set In Motion

Serious students of the markets discover quickly enough, price action has nothing to do with forecasts or fundamentals.

Once that mental hurdle is overcome, the market landscape takes on a whole new meaning.

Moving Parts, A-Plenty

At present, there’re a lot of moving parts but a few things are known: the on-going population collapse, the soon-to-be market and currency collapse (or severe de-basement), the possible ‘balkanization‘ of the U.S., just for starters.

Those wheels have already been set in motion.

Within that construct, are the market navigations (trading actions) presented on this site.

Biotech Has Spoken

At least for now, the bears are in control (not advice, not a recommendation).

The minor ‘spring’ set-up, materialized during Thursday’s session, just as this update said was likely.

It’s what happened next, that’s important.

On Friday, the set-up failed; showing the higher probability is for more downside.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

Price action is posting lower.

The potential trading channel has been re-drawn with the grey lines; indicating the possibility for more aggressive downside action (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

As can be inferred with these updates, I’ve already positioned short this sector via leveraged inverse fund LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

The stop is Thursday’s high (SPBIO, 6,135.81) which corresponds to LABD 16.66 (interesting, that).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Moderna ‘Channel’ … Redux

February 5, 2023 By in Biotech, Excess Deaths, IYR, KMX, LABD, MRNA, Real Estate, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, Weekly Wrap-Up, Wyckoff 1 Comment

… And The Weekly, ‘Summary & Strategy’

The last update about our chief cook and bottle washer of gene ‘modification’ had this to say about price action.

“We’re about forty minutes into the session; Moderna (MRNA) has just confirmed the up-thrust reversal discussed in the last update“.

From that point Moderna (MRNA) declined for seven weeks for a total of around – 31.5%.

However, that’s not the most important part.

In that update, a trading channel was shown which at the time, was declining at – 93.7%, on an annualized basis.

Well, the channel is back.

Only this time, probabilities and price action have come together to set up for a potential sustained decline.

Moderna MRNA, Weekly

Above, we have a Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ and a test that has since turned lower.

Next, we have a series of repeating trend or channel lines.

Additional data has modified the downward slope to be declining at approximately – 90%, annualized.

From a fundamental standpoint, the data set is enormous on the events of the past three years.

At some point that data could provide a huge tailwind for downside action.

For now however, let’s stick with what price action is telling us and go to the Summary & Strategy

Summary & Strategy

The past week has identified two areas of position or trade execution and two areas for possible short-term options execution (not advice, not a recommendation):

Position or Trade: Real Estate IYR, and Biotech SPBIO

Options: Carmax KMX, and Moderna MRNA

As a reminder, most if not all trade analysis is for the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Final Thoughts

Since we have possibly the largest bull trap in market history with huge numbers of VIX Call options, the following week may be subdued by going modestly up, sideways or down, slowly.

With that said, options positioning (if any) could be slated for the week of 2/17/23.

As always, price action is the final arbiter.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

There’s No … ‘Santa Rally’

December 8, 2022 By in Excess Deaths, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NEM, The Epoch Times, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Forecasted Months Ago … Now, Playing Out

Let’s start with the post from way back in September, linked here.

Back then, it said (emphasis added):

“It’s going to be a very different place come December.

This won’t be like ’08 -’09, where all the stops are being pulled to ‘rescue’ the market.

No, this time really is different.

We can all see by now; the plan is controlled demolition.“

That was then. Fast forward to now.

ZeroHedge has come out with the obvious. If there’s going to be a Santa Rally, it needs to start soon.

Good luck with that.

Instead of looking for a rally, we’ve moved on from that (unlikely) potential to something different, linked here.

That link is not a forecast. It’s there to remind us, the potential for what can happen.

One group that just won’t let go of the (sustainable) rally scenario are the gold bugs.

Seems like with every ‘blip’ higher we have articles like this one, this one, and this one.

So, let’s take a look at a the largest cap in the mining sector, Newmont and see what the price action is telling us.

Newmont Mining NEM, Weekly

First, we have the un-marked chart and right off the bat, it does not look good; down -45.4%, from all-time highs.

It looks even worse, when the resistance zone is added.

So far, price action has already stalled and not been able to hold within the resistance zone.

It’s important to note, this resistance area is over two years wide. it’s not likely that anything’s going to happen to the upside without numerous attempts.

No ‘Clicks’, In A Gold Bear Market

If buying gold was the answer to getting through the financial, economic and societal collapse, then one would think the price would be moving relentlessly higher.

That’s not happening … not by a long shot.

What is happening, is this: Demand destruction on a colossal scale.

This destruction is on the birth side and the death side.

These events are affecting everything, going forward.

Nailing The Reversals

Using Wyckoff analysis, this site has been able to identify reversals in gold and the miners at times, to the day.

Important pivot points are here, here, here, and here,

Once again, at this juncture, we’re at a potential reversal in silver, gold, and the miners.

It’s about 15-minutes before the open. NEM is trading slightly higher by about 1.00%.

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279