The Moderna ‘Channel’ … Redux

… And The Weekly, ‘Summary & Strategy’

The last update about our chief cook and bottle washer of gene ‘modification’ had this to say about price action.

“We’re about forty minutes into the session; Moderna (MRNA) has just confirmed the up-thrust reversal discussed in the last update“.

From that point Moderna (MRNA) declined for seven weeks for a total of around – 31.5%.

However, that’s not the most important part.

In that update, a trading channel was shown which at the time, was declining at – 93.7%, on an annualized basis.

Well, the channel is back.

Only this time, probabilities and price action have come together to set up for a potential sustained decline.

Moderna MRNA, Weekly

Above, we have a Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ and a test that has since turned lower.

Next, we have a series of repeating trend or channel lines.

Additional data has modified the downward slope to be declining at approximately – 90%, annualized.

From a fundamental standpoint, the data set is enormous on the events of the past three years.

At some point that data could provide a huge tailwind for downside action.

For now however, let’s stick with what price action is telling us and go to the Summary & Strategy

Summary & Strategy

The past week has identified two areas of position or trade execution and two areas for possible short-term options execution (not advice, not a recommendation):

Position or Trade: Real Estate IYR, and Biotech SPBIO

Options: Carmax KMX, and Moderna MRNA

As a reminder, most if not all trade analysis is for the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Final Thoughts

Since we have possibly the largest bull trap in market history with huge numbers of VIX Call options, the following week may be subdued by going modestly up, sideways or down, slowly.

With that said, options positioning (if any) could be slated for the week of 2/17/23.

As always, price action is the final arbiter.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Weekly, Wrap-Up

The Usual Suspects

No. 1

Carvana Fires 2,500 Employees

We didn’t see that one coming. Or, did we?

Just a quick review of this report posted over six-months ago:

“If your biggest claim to fame is that you ‘invented’ a vending machine … you’ve got real problems.”

“As the economy (if you can call it that) falls off the cliff, one of these two (CMX, CVNA), is not likely to survive.”

Well, looks like we have the answer on that one.

From the date of the report above to last Friday’s close, CVNA, is down -87.8%.

Measured from all-time highs, CVNA, is down -91.1%.

As CVNA, swirls down the drain of ‘disruption’, looks like it was only a blip in the land of ‘status quo’.

No. 2

The ProLogis ‘Connection’

Is this a re-print of a prior report?

No, the update below, is essentially a confirmation of the analysis in that (above) report.

Turns out that Amazon (link here) is in negotiations with chief cook and warehouse bottle-washer, ProLogis (here) about terminating massive amounts of lease space.

The entire affair, is an irrefutable confirmation of the Wyckoff analysis method.

That is, ‘the market itself defines it’s next likely course’.

Those on the inside always know something; that ‘something’ (i.e., their actions) shows up on the tape.

After the initial ‘ProLogis Connection’, a follow-up was posted that identified the largest down-thrust energy in ProLogis history.

From that report was this quote:

“We’re using PLD, as the proxy for the real estate (IYR) sector as it’s the largest cap equity.”

“That’s true for now … but maybe not for long.”

How quickly things change.

ProLogis is now the number two in the IYR market cap and very close to being third.

No. 3

Wealth Confiscation Coming Soon

The first two bullets perceived events before they happened, so let’s make it three-in-a-row.

This one’s pretty much a no-brainer.

During the last meltdown in 2007 – 2009, IRA retirement accounts came within a hairs-width of being confiscated.

This time around, could be for sure.

The following’s a section of a report written years ago.

It’s even more relevant now.

Begin Report


Government To Confiscate IRAs?  It’s Easy

There has been enough time for the American working (and saving) public to take the lessons of the 2007- 2009 meltdown and act accordingly.

One of those lessons would have been to realize, just how close they came to having their IRAs confiscated.

Personally, I’m surprised that any of the following links below are still active.  Well, who’s looking at this stuff anyway?  Certainly, not the general public:

Dems Target

Fact Check

Congress considering

Government to Confiscate (no longer active)

Confiscation of Private Retirement

Even in the Wall St. Journal:  Targeting your 401K

After reading several of these reports in 2009 and later, it did not take long for me to set the plan in motion to cash out … completely.  I took the 10% penalty, while it’s still 10% and liquidated my accounts.

The rest of the population?  Not so much.

I think it was Prechter who laid out just how easy it is for the government to seize IRA accounts.  It’s basically a two step process.

Step 1.  The market drops 50% to 70%.  Remember, the drop from 2007 to the bottom in 2009 was 58%.

Step 2.  Declare a state of emergency (executive order) for the working population and move in to “save” the IRA accounts from more devastation.  The result would involve a stiff withdrawal penalty (say 50%) and to “protect” the accounts from further losses, IRAs can only invest in U.S. Treasuries or Bonds.

It’s that easy. 

As stated previously, wealth does not necessarily mean gold and silver.  That too can (and has been in the past) be confiscated.

In fact, I and my firm are already operating as if the next crisis is in full swing and asset confiscation is the norm.  That way, we don’t have to come up to speed quickly in what may be an extreme stress situation. 

End Report

One could propose that (IRA) legislation is already written.

Just like the CARES Act was already written and submitted to committee in January of 2019, nine months before there was any kind of outbreak.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Weekly, Wrap-Up

The Usual Suspects


No. 1

Airplanes Dropping Like Flies.

A very brief search of the most recent crashes or incidents are here, here, here, here, here, and here.

It’s all just a coincidence or maybe it’s because of this.

The repercussions of on-going events are just getting started.

This is a long-haul chess game.

No. 2

Americans Take Up The Gauntlet … Go To Vegas

What a pathetic bunch of cowards.

If you’re blowing whatever’s left of your money (or credit), it’s likely you have no real marketable (high pay) skills, no talent, lazy, obese; so, we’re off to Vegas.

Add to that, we’re just at the start of the depression.

Patera, from Appalachia’s Homestead (time stamp 4:24) addresses the problem a little differently but her final assessment is the same.

It’s true, there are some barriers to learning a new skill.

Dan from i-Allegedly points out the high cost to get a CDL, to be a trucker.

However, those who are awake, those with their nose in the KJV Bible, those leaving the corrupt church (in droves), knew that current events were coming; they took action way before it became obvious.

Remember this post?

It’s been nearly two years, to the day.

No. 3

Deflation Indicators

Not all prices are rising.

As the real estate sector gets vaporized, we have the natural fall-out, building materials dropping in price.

Uneducated Economist reports here, that’s exactly what’s happening.

Price reductions as we’re going into the summer building season, is a massive indicator of evaporating demand.

No. 4

Food First … Then Gold & Silver

Everything is going according to (their) plan.

Yet another indicator of the current strange weather (warfare) that’s going to strain the system.

Here’s the link to the very first post that specifically referenced Genesis 41; posted on December 31, 2020.

As with the ‘Mask on, Mask off (linked above), how has the post aged?

Is it still relevant?

What about this quote … seemed extreme at the time.

They paid for the corn first, with gold and silver.  Then they paid with their livestock.  Then they paid by selling themselves into life-long slavery. We can equate that last part (slavery) as getting the vax.

No. 5

Chess Board Strategy

It’s a bitter pill to realize we’re in the long game. ‘Normal’, is not coming back … ever.

That does not mean there’re no opportunities. There are.

Those opportunities (if we survive) are/will be potentially life changing for the good.

The Sunday futures market opened about two hours ago and we’re up around +0.40%, in the S&P.

Let’s see if that spills over to the Monday open; remembering that we’re short the real estate sector with the finger on the sell trigger (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Weekly Wrap-Up

The Usual Suspects

It’s about two hours before the Sunday futures open and we’re about to see what happens next.

In the meantime, the links below are from the week just past or of special note for our bear-market conditions.

Like Mike Tyson says …

‘Everybody’s got a plan ’till you get hit in the face’.

The following are not in any particular order.

No. 1

The ARKK Takes On Water

It can probably be safely stated, this ARKK, was not likely built to Biblical specifications.

Maybe they used the wrong Wood. 🙂

No. 2

Hold The Narrative At All Costs

If one lives long enough, eventually you may reach the point where you’re tired of being played.

Once that happens, eyes are opened, you see the narrative clearly; that’s it’s everywhere.

Take this link for example … oh so many narratives.

Like defining ‘investor’ and ‘trader’; defining how each of those two behave in the markets.

The article surmises that investors think traders are not as smart as they because … well, investors have more letters after their names (CFA, CFP, CTA, and on … maybe even PhD … whooo).

Traders, well, they’re just circus monkeys and volatility junkies.

This narrative is beat into the collective conscious incessantly as far as can be remembered. It keeps the herd (investors, traders alike) firmly in the box.

Remember this link?

However, the great speculators back in the day, Livermore, Wyckoff, Loeb, were none of those things.

Their actions were determined on what the market was saying about itself.

Obviously, if you’re isolated, focused on what price is actually doing, not watching the news, then you’re not part of the herd.

You’re going against the (established and approved) narrative, a dangerous animal indeed.

No. 3

Bear Market Links

It’s time to brush up on bear market strategies.

Links are here, here, here, and here.

No. 4

Collapse, Baked-In

When you have stupidity like this … who needs earnings?

No. 5

Who is Shooting at Whom?

Here’s a story you won’t see on the mainstream news.

No. 6

Tulip Bulb Mania, is Over

When millions of people are starving to death, I’ll sure be glad I invested in a ‘tweet‘ … Not.

Way back in Middle School history class, I could not understand the mania.

I thought to myself … “It’s just a bunch of flowers, right?”

It would have been nice for the teacher to say:

“When you get to adulthood, you’ll be surrounded by morons”.

No. 7

Canada’s Mandates Explained

At last!!!

Here is an easy-to-follow, scientific explanation.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279