Category Archives: LABD

Biotech … History Repeats

October 22, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-23-10, LABD-23-11, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Unraveling, By-The-Day

Well, pretty much everything is unraveling, so in a sense biotech’s no different.

However, this sector (SPBIO, $SPSIBI), is the weakest of all the major indices (from 2020 – 2022, highs), down approx. 62%.

We’ll get to the ‘history repeats’ part farther down but first a reminder, this site’s about Strategy, Tactics, and Focus, i.e., Livermore, Wyckoff, and Loeb.

It looks like we’re already in a full-blown economic, societal (population) collapse, i.e., Strategy.

Biotech appears to be the weakest sector, i.e., Tactics.

The (shorting) action is on that sector exclusively, i.e., Focus.

Not advice, not a recommendation.

Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, 8-Day

Since the Fibonacci 8-Day chart was used for the update on gold, GLD, we’ll use it for this post.

All trendlines shown on the chart are exactly parallel.

The market itself has presented a tendency to trend at the rate shown in the ‘Trading Channel’.

It’s happened before; identified as ‘Repeating Trendline’.

Positioning

This series of short trades on SPBIO, opened via LABD, and identified as LABD-23-10, LABD-23-11, are fully documented here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here.

From a Wyckoff perspective, the market itself is telling us to ‘do nothing’, maintain the trade unless stopped out (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver: Breakout or Test?

October 18, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GLD, Gold & Silver, LABD, LABD-23-11, Michael Cowan, Positions, SLV, SPBIO 2 Comments

Non-Confirmation

First off, before we get started, there’s this on ZeroHedge; Gold price out of control?

The short answer is ‘probably not’ and we’ll use the confirmation proxy Silver (SLV), as our example (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Silver Non-Confirmation

In a traditional ‘inflation’ scenario, silver and gold typically move in tandem.

We can see that’s the case during the last (major) inflation event back in the late ’70s and early ’80s.

Gold spiked right along with silver; Gold chart link here. Silver chart link here.

That Was Then

What we have now, is different. Something’s wrong.

Silver’s not confirming the price rise of gold; Silver vs. Gold, link here.

There’s a massive divergence between the two.

Silver (SLV) Weekly Close

The SLV weekly, shows we’ve broken down from a wedge, now testing the underside of resistance.

Silver more than gold, is tied directly to the economy; over half of all silver is used in production.

It seems, production is about to fall off a cliff.

Evidence can be seen in a corollary indicator, layoffs.

Mass Layoffs

As Michael Cowan shows (time stamp 1:30), layoffs are accelerating.

Let’s not forget, ShadowStats shows its own unemployment indicator, already at Depression Era levels.

Positioning

On this site, beginning in mid-September, short positions (via LABD) were opened in possibly, the weakest sector, biotech, SPBIO, $SPSIBI (not advice, not a recommendation).

The initial position was stopped out (gain around +21%), then re-established the same day (LABD-23-11) with an LABD entry of 21.69.

So far, with today’s action, LABD’s trading around 23.90; approximately + 10% from the entry.

In addition, we now have a new Hard Stop @ LABD 21.65, yesterday’s low (not advice, not a recommendation)

Chart updates are planned for the next post.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Upside Breakout or Not

October 16, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-23-11, Positions, SPBIO 1 Comment

At The Channel Line, Bullish Divergence

Looking at the tape, we’re at a confluence.

Today’s price action is near the right-side channel line and downside energy (RSI) has a bullish divergence as shown.

What happens at the next session may result in maintaining the trade (LABD-23-11) or getting stopped out (not advice, not a recommendation).

Recall, the overall trend is down and the bullish set-up shown below, can sometimes get overpowered to the downside.

Biotech SPBIO ($SPSIBI), Daily

The short position via LABD, has a tentative stop in the vicinity of LABD 22.01, but this is not a hard stop (yet).

Hard Stop is still set @ LABD 20.54 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next Session

The ideal situation for the LABD-23-11, short, is a higher open for LABD, and a higher daily high.

If price action performs otherwise, it’s possible I will take a discretionary exit on the position and go to the sidelines (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Back In The Saddle … Biotech

October 11, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. Elder, LABD, LABD-23-10, LABD-23-11, Positions, SPBIO 3 Comments

The ‘Perfection’ Mind-Trap

‘Once stopped out, the amateur will never re-enter the trade.’

That’s Dr. Alexander Elder, stating a typical psychological barrier for the new trader.

As if by design, as soon as the short trade LABD-23-10, was named, it was stopped out early this session.

About thirty minutes after the open, price action reversed its early session direction and re-confirmed the original bearish assessment of the sector.

Naming The Trade

From a personal standpoint, the psychological barrier of never getting back in a trade once stopped out, was addressed years ago.

It’s frustrating, but what’s worse, is watching one’s original premise turn into a ten-bagger and not being along for the ride.

With that said, the short in biotech has been re-established via LABD, at a far-from-perfect entry of 21.69, and a not-so good stop of 20.54 (not advice, not a recommendation)

We’ll name this one at the outset as LABD-23-11

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (Short) Trade Update

October 9, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-23-10, Positions, SPBIO, The List, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Behind The Scenes, Biotech Verifies Trend

Hardly a day goes by where we don’t get some kind of biotech ‘conspiracy’ or exposé like this, this, this, or this.

True or not, from a trading standpoint, we’re interested in reality.

So far, that reality, i.e., the price action, says that out of all the major sectors (except bonds, perhaps), biotech, and specifically, SPBIO ($SPSIBI) is the weakest (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Trade With No Name

Since the existing short on biotech via LABD is solidly in the green (original entry @ 16.99), it’s going to be tracked on this site as LABD-23-10, indicating the tenth series (trade campaign) this year.

Biotech SPBIO, 3X Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

The first chart shows the original entry (documented here and here) and the stop progression.

The second chart shows that we’re in a trading channel, confirmed with today’s higher (daily) high, with SPBIO, lower.

During this session, the stop has been tightened up to LABD 20.74 (Friday’s low).

With that, it could all be over soon, i.e., getting stopped out; or, it’s just a continuing series of well-disciplined progressions protecting open profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Sector, Buckles

September 28, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, Positions, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The List, The Speck, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Bad, And More Bad News

It’s been a little nerve-wracking over the past two sessions being short biotech; was it an upward correction, or a full-blown reversal?

No one really knows, until it’s over.

Well, as of today’s new daily low in index SPBIO, it looks like what is now seen as a correction, may be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Bad, And More Bad

On the fundamental side, The List keeps building with links like this, this and this.

However, keep in mind, it may be something as simple as rising interest rates that’s ultimately going to collapse biotech and the rest of the markets (not advice, not a recommendation).

Moving on and looking at the chart of SPBIO, there’s a trend confirmation and potential trading channel.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

The left side line is the trend … the right-side line is what’s called the ‘reverse trendline’ and possibly defines the trading channel.

As of this post (12:30 p.m., EST) the SPBIO, is doing all it can to reverse higher, against what may be the over-riding (down) trend.

So far, the daily high of SPBIO 5764.73, remains intact.

Positioning

As a result of today’s new SPBIO low, the stop has been moved on the position in the inverse fund LABD, from LABD 18.22, to LABD 19.18 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘No Pivot’, Black Swan

September 22, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Federal Reserve, LABD, Nissam Taleb, Positions, SPBIO, Van Metre 1 Comment

Then, There’s Biotech

Back in January, this post was contrary to the accepted (and still accepted) theory, there’ll be a Fed ‘pivot’ when the economy turns south.

‘Like ‘bread and circuses’, the ‘pivot’ discussion is a distraction … keeping the proletariat placated.’

We went south a long time ago and not only is there no pivot, rates are most likely going higher still (not advice, not a recommendation).

A Process Of Iteration

Those accessing this site for any length of time, have seen my trading actions going through a process of iteration in real-time.

Those actions have effectively searched (and profited) from moves, but more importantly, are looking for the market that stands to decline the farthest and fastest.

At this juncture, that market could be biotech and specifically, the SPBIO, index (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech SPBIO, Monthly

Depending on if, when, and where the neckline is broken, we have an approximate location for a measured move.

Head & Shoulders patterns, while being high probability, can be subject to failure.

One of the most famous of these in recent memory, was the S&P Head and Shoulders of late 2002.

It was an easily recognizable pattern that failed … only later to find out, the market had been manipulated higher by an entity (buying futures contracts) that had ‘unlimited capital’.

Positioning

As this post detailed, the main position going short the index (via LABD) has already been opened (not advice, not a recommendation).

There have been other additions, but they are nowhere near the size of the original entry.

Hard Stop has been moved up from LABD 17.59 to LABD 18.22 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Highly Leveraged, LABD

There’s no guarantee, 3X Leveraged Inverse fund LABD, will be maintained throughout a potential collapse. Events can change, even while this post is being created.

That being said, what’s happening here is akin to ‘settling in’ on a trade, monitoring price action, trend lines, and support/resistance, to mentally prepare for what could be a sustained move.

So far, that approach is working.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Good News, Bad News … Biotech

September 19, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, 1907, Biotech, LABD, Livermore, Positions, SPBIO, The List, Wyckoff 4 Comments

When Price Action Heads South

One of the first things a professional (mentor) will teach aspiring traders, is:

‘Big money potential is on the downside’.

A famous example of this, was during the Panic of 1907,

Jesse Livermore raised capital by hawking his car for $5,000 (according to Wyckoff), then shorted the market.

Near the bottom on (or about) October 24th, 1907, he covered; netting over $1 million in profits.

That Was Then … Is That Now?

Well, conditions change, but human behavior does not.

Back in the day, it was newspapers, telephone, telegraph and ‘rumors’; today, we have Cramer 🙂

You’ll have to judge for yourself if the posts on this site are providing worthwhile insight.

Let’s move on to Biotech, SPBIO.

Since I am short this sector via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation), we’re going to look at that vehicle.

Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

After the entry on 9/14, at 16.99, price action has not looked back.

Note, the entry had a very tight stop as covered here.

The ‘risk’ is determined as the distance from entry to stop; in the case above, 16.99 – 16.66 = 0.33-pts.

For example, a ‘risk’ of $1,000 let’s say, equates to a position size just over 3,000 shares LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trending

The chart shows LABD, is currently trending higher at an aggressive rate.

There’s no guarantee this will continue to hold.

However, at the same time, there’s been no ‘news generating’ breakout, either.

So, at this point, it’s all under the radar.

Bad News Comes Out

When price action heads south, bad news comes out.

On a daily basis now, with articles like this and this.

Positioning

The initial position has already been discussed.

Other minor ones have been opened but the more important part, is Stop placement.

The initial Stop has been moved from LABD 16.66 to yesterday’s low of LABD 17.59 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘Event Horizon’

September 16, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, CBDC, Daniela Cambone, Edward Dutton, Excess Deaths, LABD, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 3 Comments

Set In Motion

Serious students of the markets discover quickly enough, price action has nothing to do with forecasts or fundamentals.

Once that mental hurdle is overcome, the market landscape takes on a whole new meaning.

Moving Parts, A-Plenty

At present, there’re a lot of moving parts but a few things are known: the on-going population collapse, the soon-to-be market and currency collapse (or severe de-basement), the possible ‘balkanization‘ of the U.S., just for starters.

Those wheels have already been set in motion.

Within that construct, are the market navigations (trading actions) presented on this site.

Biotech Has Spoken

At least for now, the bears are in control (not advice, not a recommendation).

The minor ‘spring’ set-up, materialized during Thursday’s session, just as this update said was likely.

It’s what happened next, that’s important.

On Friday, the set-up failed; showing the higher probability is for more downside.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

Price action is posting lower.

The potential trading channel has been re-drawn with the grey lines; indicating the possibility for more aggressive downside action (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

As can be inferred with these updates, I’ve already positioned short this sector via leveraged inverse fund LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

The stop is Thursday’s high (SPBIO, 6,135.81) which corresponds to LABD 16.66 (interesting, that).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The AI ‘Hot Potato’

September 14, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, LABD, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, The Maverick of Wall Street, Wyckoff 2 Comments

My Forecast Is Hotter Than Yours!

Those on the bear side of the AI insanity, know in their gut, this sector’s going to implode in spectacular fashion (not advice, not a recommendation).

The question is, as The Maverick puts it, ‘when’?

What’s also not known, is how the public is going to react when the punch bowl is taken away and we have the day of reckoning.

With that in mind, the immediate downside in the SOXX, has failed to materialize … just yet.

Therefore, all short positions via SOXS, have been closed; profit was about +10%

Behind The Scenes … Biotech

Biotech, SPBIO, has been an on-again, off-again opportunity.

It’s not known how the next ‘planned outbreak’ is going to affect the sector, but it looks like at this point, the current response is to edge lower.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

The big picture shows lower highs as we head toward well-established support zones.

From a trading and shorting perspective, the leveraged inverse fund for this sector is LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

Moving closer in, the daily action has penetrated prior lows, technically putting the index in Wyckoff spring position.

Price action will likely attempt a move higher, happening now during this session.

If that move fails, then we have our answer; the bulls would be exhausted (for now).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279