Category Archives: NVDA

SOXX, at The Edge

July 10, 2025 By in NVDA, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-03, Up-Thrust, WMT, WMT-25-04, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Thrust Apex?

From the April 7th lows, to now, each successive move higher in the SOXX, has traveled less net distance.

In Wyckoff terms, this type of market behavior occurs near the end of a move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s not forget the up-thrust condition, still in effect, discussed here.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

In a related analysis, the last post on Nvidia had it at Fibonacci Week 144 (-1).

Now, a week later, Nvidia is in Fibonacci Week 144 (from October 2022, lows), posting all-time highs.

Positioning

Short the SOXX, as trade SOXX-25-03, with stop just above the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: This could be a very short-lived trade as SOXX, is trading higher in the pre-market (as of 8:35 a.m., EST).

Separately, the stop on short trade WMT-25-04, has been moved down to just above its session high at 97.31 (not advice, not a recommendation).

If WMT, posts a new daily high, it’s likely to test the trend break; we’ll stand on the sidelines if/when, that happens.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Livermore’s Laws … Positioning

July 7, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Livermore, Loeb, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-01, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Establish Full Position(s) … Early

As the ‘About‘ page says, we’re emulating trading and analysis techniques, used by Livermore, Wyckoff & Loeb.

Livermore’s listed first, as he figured out through many gains and losses, he’s primarily, a strategist:

‘What’s likely to happen, in a big way?’

Wyckoff is next as the tactician, with Loeb as the focus; meaning, concentrate positions, do not ‘diversify’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Incremental Entries

The potential for reversal in the semiconductor index, started with this post.

From that post, the sidebar shows an initial short, labeled as: SOXX-25-01.

Moving on to this post, Nvidia was used as a proxy for the SOXX; once again, we see SOXX-25-01, in the sidebar.

The short is active, size increased by 50%, last Thursday.

Today, price action posts a new daily low, dips below resistance in 240 – 242, area, increasing probability it’s an up-thrust (reversal).

SOXX-25-01, size increased again by 30%, and we’re done.

The amount of capital planned for the position has been fully allocated.

Set The Stop, & ‘Walk’

From this point, anything can happen.

With that said, the obvious stop location for the current position, is just above today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

With a combined entry of 242.26, getting stopped out just above 242.13, would be at break-even.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia’s … Timed Top

July 4, 2025 By in GDXJ, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-01 2 Comments

Fibonacci, still In-Effect?

Insight on Nvidia’s adherence to Fibonacci, began over a year ago, with this post.

That update, identified the (interim) reversal correctly.

Since then, price action continued and has now, this (shortened) week, posted another potential correlation.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

The week closed with a high, 55-weeks from the ‘Week 89’ high, making a total of Fibonacci 144 (-1) weeks, from the October 2022, lows.

One might ask, can it be this precise?

To answer that question, we’ll go back to this analysis.

The next (trading) day, Junior Miners GDXJ, printed a new daily high (55-Days), then reversed lower for 24-weeks, a total decline over 50%.

So, it turns out, it can be that precise if market conditions are in favor, and nobody’s looking (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, (false) Breakout?

July 3, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, DUST, DUST-25-05, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-01, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Edge-of-the-Lake

At the end of the session, yesterday, a short was opened in the SOXX, as trade, SOXX-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll see below, price action finally penetrated long-standing resistance around 240 – 243, and then (so far), has stopped dead.

In the overnight session, SOXX churned higher to post 243.63, and is hovering around that level, in the pre-market.

There’s no doubt we’re at ‘the edge of the lake’, as David Weis, used to say.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily Close

It’s important to note, big cap Nvidia, is in Spring-to-Up-Thrust condition (chart not shown), with it posting new all-time-highs.

If NVDA confirms an up-thrust and heads lower, it’s likely to take the rest of the (SOXX) market down as well.

Market Positions

Positioned short the SOXX, with a stop yet to be determined; somewhere around the overnight high of 243.63 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, stop on GDX short, DUST-25-05 is being moved up to the vicinity of yesterday’s low, 23.98 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Target

March 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX

Then, The Fed

There are four more trading days left to compete the bar on the 8-Day, chart of Nvidia, below.

What are the chances it continues on higher into resistance?

If it does, it’s the 50% retrace of the entire move from highs on January 7th, to the lows of March 11th.

Then, The Fed

We have a Fed meeting this coming week, 18th and 19th.

Could any announcement be used as an ‘excuse’ to propel the market higher … straight into resistance?

Nvidia Fibonacci 8-Day

Who uses an 8-Day chart?

Not anybody I know 🙂

If Nvidia continues to rally, one would expect the SOXX, to move higher as well … potentially creating yet another short opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).

Lastly, Ed Dowd

Here’s a link to a recent interview. At time stamp 37:48, he spills the beans on The Fed.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … BOOM !

February 27, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, SOXS, SOXS-25-09, SOXX, Wyckoff

Well, That’s It

At the open, Nvidia came within 1-point of the target (61.8%), shown in the last update.

Then, it posted an outside-down bar within the first 25-minutes.

At this point (as of 11:28 a.m., EST), since yesterday’s low was penetrated, that puts NVDA, in a minor Wyckoff Spring condition, retracing some of the early session down move.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

The chart has been compressed, showing events appear to be taking place on a massive scale.

If the trading channel is in-effect (i.e., correct), look how far down we have to go for the ‘demand’ side.

The press and pundits are either not ready for such a move or are deflecting from actual events, links here and here.

Looks like ‘good enough’ didn’t last long:

At the open, NVDA down, immediately.

Positioning

With all the coverage put on this equity and sector, ETF, the SOXX, trading actions are matter of fact.

The sidebar shows another short via SOXS, opened early in the session. Trade is SOXS-25-09 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

All Eyes on Nvidia

February 26, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX 1 Comment

Rally Into Earnings, (maybe) Good For Shorts

Yesterday’s post said to “expect a test of … support.”

That’s what we got.

Price action sliced through support levels for Nvidia and then rallied into the close.

This morning’s action continued that rally.

Short position SOXS-25-08, was exited early in the session (when SOXX, daily high exceeded yesterday’s high) with profit at +19.4% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Today, is Fibonacci ‘Day 34’, from the all-time highs.

Tomorrow, is Day 8, from the 2/18/25, pivot high.

Earnings are scheduled for release at 4:20 p.m., and conference call at 5:00 p.m., EST.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Other (Bull) Side of Nvidia

February 25, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Cramer, Interest Rates, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX 1 Comment

Who’s Is Taking Your Trade?

As a trading professional, you must know (or have a good idea) who’s on the other side of your trade.

Whom are you competing against?

It’s just one of many questions to be asked (along with price action) when estimating the opportunity; whether long or short.

Well, ladies and gentlemen, here’s some of what’s on the bullish side of Nvidia, link here.

So, according to the video, tech stocks (and Nvidia) went down because of the U.S. 10-yr Treasury?

Think about it. ‘Likes’ vs. ‘Dislikes’ on that video (as of this post) are over 13:1.

How about this:

Nvidia went down because it posted the largest ever price action down-thrust; then, went through a test of that action, completed the test, then reversed to the downside.

Wow, sounds so clear when put that way. 🙂

With that, let’s get back to reality.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Earnings are scheduled for after-hours tomorrow. Things could get interesting.

In the meantime, we have a demand line and possible channel.

As of this post (10:47 a.m., EST), NVDA has sliced through support at the 129 – 130, level with ease.

We should expect a test of that support. However, at this point, price action is quite weak (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

As Expected, … Carvana, Crushed

February 22, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, CVNA, Nasdaq, NVDA, QQQ

Using The Nvidia Model

In the after-hours, post-earnings, Carvana spiked to exactly 310, the lower end of the range presented here.

Then, ending the (regular session) week down nearly -22%.

In a similar fashion, Nvidia had its own collapse; down -17%, on ‘DeepSeek’ fears.

As always, the question is, ‘what happens next?’

This Plan, or That

From here, literally, anything can happen.

Carvana could continue straight down and implode (not advice, not a recommendation).

It could do nothing and just post sideways action from here; not likely, but it could.

Or, behind Door Number 3, Carvana model’s Nvidia.

That is, finishing its initial downward thrust, then a retrace to test the wide bar(s), high volume.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

On a percentage basis, CVNA has weaker action (which may not be finished) than NVDA.

The ‘Short’ Side

If the market begins a persistent decline, will the SEC ban short selling as it did in 2008, link here.

It’s important to note, immediately after that announcement, the market absolutely cratered on massive volatility; the Qs dropped over -41%, from that point.

This time around (if it happens), with a new Sheriff, will there be a short-selling ban?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … The Path of Bubbles Past

February 21, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Dr. Elder, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX

Modeling The Dot-Com

Nvidia looks like it’s rolling over.

There was an early morning ‘blip’ to the upside that was quickly retraced.

Known & Unknown

Some things are known.

We know Nvidia printed the largest-ever, downside thrust energy during the breakdown, January 27th.

Then came the process of retrace and test.

Also known (see chart) upside energy, i.e., Elder’s Force Index, at this point, has dissipated to almost nothing; suggesting the test is complete or near complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

At this juncture (12:18 p.m., EST) Nvidia is just 0.16-pts away from a lower weekly close and reversal bar.

The ‘Supply’ line is of course unknown until there’s more confirmation.

Bubbles Past

If we’re in a bubble, then work has already been done (link here) on what to expect when price action has tested its last to the upside, then turns lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279