Category Archives: Real Estate

Real Estate Top

February 19, 2021 By in AMT, DRV, IYR, Real Estate

It’s about an hour before the close and real estate, IYR is struggling to reman above resistance.

Two charts are provided in this update. Weekly and hourly.

The big picture is the weekly.

Resistance at 88 – 90, level is clear.

The second chart is the hourly.

Price action on the hourly can be seen posting above resistance for about three trading days. Then, it reversed lower this past Tuesday, the 16th.

The largest cap in this ETF, AMT remains in its own down trend.

Today, it attempted to move higher but that higher level (around 229.50) could not hold.

At this juncture, AMT (chart not sown) is trading lower near 228-level.

AMT has been discussed previously. Most recent update at this link.

Summary:

Real estate, IYR is testing the attempted breakout higher during today’s session. So far, that test is not able to hold; indicating weakness.

In addition, last week’s up-volume contracted by -65% over the prior (breakout) week.

There is apparently no (or very little) support at these levels.

Market Positioning (not advice, not a recommendation)

I have maintained my firm’s position short this sector via DRV, the 3X inverse of IYR.

If IYR can’t get significantly above resistance during this session, the long awaited IYR top and reversal may be at hand.

Charts below:

Hourly chart of IYR

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Miners, GDX Accelerates Lower

February 17, 2021 By in DRV, GDX, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IYR, Real Estate, Wyckoff

With GDX posting a new weekly low (below 33.23) early this session, it’s helping to confirm a pivot and acceleration to the downside.

Bullish or bearish, it’s a crowded trade that we’re avoiding (not advice, not a recommendation).

It took over a week of oscillating price action before GDX decided to post below the February 4th, low.

Even so, when an established low is penetrated, it puts the market in “Wyckoff Spring Position’.

That means there’ll (potentially) be some type of rally or rally attempt. If that happens, it’s just more oscillations that result in erosion of leveraged inverse funds.

Other areas of the market are performing better on the downside. Real estate IYR, looks like it may post a narrow range day (as of mid-session).

It’s typical action when at support. If there’s no break lower today, then IYR could make an attempt higher at the next session.

Based on previous analysis, that attempt (if it occurs) is expected to be short lived.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Not Sustainable

February 12, 2021 By in DRV, IWM, IYR, Real Estate, Russell 2000

The Russell 2000 (IWM) puts it into perspective.

Trending higher at nearly 1,000% annualized, it’s obvious a break is coming.

Exactly how or when of course, is not known.

However, it has been proposed by this site (for years), when the final bubble-break comes, it’s likely to be an over-the-weekend event that results in a severe gap down open.

A gap down of say, 20% – 50%.

Can’t happen? After the events of 2020, we should all know that anything can happen.

Theoretically, a gap down of -25% from current levels, puts IWM right at long-time support around ~170.

Under such conditions when a severe disconnect is possible, one approach is to prepare on the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Using Wyckoff analysis techniques (for bear markets), that means to look for sectors not participating in the mania. When the downdraft hits, those markets will (potentially) move lower farther and faster.

That brings us to real estate, IYR

Using the same time-scale and trend line notations, we get the chart below:

From a purely visual perspective, the struggle to move higher is obvious. The past two sessions have made no net progress.

Looking more closely at recent action, IYR is following a Fibonacci time sequence.

From the low on January 12th, to the most recent high on Wednesday the 10th, is a Fibonacci 21 days.

The added bonus is the inflection point on Day 13.

Bid/Ask spreads on inverse fund DRV, in the pre-market are not that reliable; at this juncture, 8:10 a.m., EST) they indicate a higher open.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Le Denouement

February 5, 2021 By in DRV, IYR, Real Estate

The final outcome. Real estate IYR has met key technical points that indicate reversal is imminent. It might not be much of a turn at the start, but the market rarely announces its intent.

Time spent analyzing real estate seems like forever; it’s actually only been a few weeks. The daily chart above, puts it into perspective.

For the most part, trading and positioning action has been focused on the tiny circled area. Not advice, not a recommendation.

To be concise, we’ll list the known facts about the current juncture.

  • IYR is at Fibonacci 76.4%, retrace level from the down move that started in February – March last year.
  • Price action has met a Fibonacci 61.8% projected move off ‘a-b-c’ wave action from the January 12th, 2021 lows.
  • While meeting that 61.8% projection, price action formed a terminating wedge; complete with a throw-over early in the session yesterday.
  • Price action closed below the prior near time high of 88.11 (close was at 88.07).
  • High levels of volume over the past four sessions, indicate distribution; just as it indicated accumulation at the beginning of the current move. The “Book-Ends”
  • Successive lower momentum energy with each net upward close since April 9th, 2020.
  • Supporting the potential for market reversal, bonds are at short level (and price) extremes and the dollar has already reversed.

The area of interest shown in the daily above has been expanded to hourly charts below:

It may be a little hard to make out the Fibonacci numbers (61.8%, circled), but early yesterday, price action posted higher and reversed off the Fibonacci 61.8% level.

The hourly below, shows in addition to meeting Fib targets, a terminating wedge had also been formed:

The last chart, the daily, has IYR posting right at Fibonacci 76.4% retrace of the entire down move from February – March last year.

If IYR does not reverse at this juncture (or within tenths of a point), then it’s headed to much higher levels.

Considering all the facts; the extremes, bonds, dollar, and now gold and silver in a deflation impulse; significantly higher prices for IYR seem unlikely indeed.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

P & F Forecast: IYR

February 3, 2021 By in DRV, IYR, Real Estate 2 Comments

Unless IYR posts a new daily high, it’s in a reversal.

P&F chart forecasts an ‘initial’ target: 69 – 70 range.

Initial target because as (and if) IYR moves down, it generates even lower targets having posted prior congestion in the 76 – 82, chart area.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

All Markets Down

January 27, 2021 By in DIA, Dow 30, DRV, IWM, IYR, QQQ, Real Estate, Russell 2000, S&P 500, SOXX, SPY

Pre-market action has all major indexes trading lower; SPY, DIA, QQQ, SOXX and IWM; all down.

Real estate, IYR has no real pre-market volume (20-shares) so its open is unknown. However, inverse fund DRV, does have volume (3,700 shares) and its action is up about 4%.

The daily close chart of IYR (above), has price action contacting an established axis line.

That was yesterday. Over the past two-weeks, as price ratcheted higher volume has declined (circled area enlarged).

That decline indicates lack of commitment at these levels.

Yesterday’s close also put IYR firmly in up-thrust position (ready for reversal).

Over the past week, short positions were opened using DRV (not advice, not a recommendation)

Average price of the short equates to DRV @ 9.92; not far from current pre-market trading.

If IYR posts a new daily low (below 86.62), it’s another data point the anticipated reversal may be at hand.

The rising action has changed the P&F forecast reported a few days back. Updates will be forthcoming.

If this is the start of a sustained reversal, the plan is to build the short position as price action dictates.

The downside of the entire market (S&P, Dow, etc.) is immense. Commercial real estate is especially vulnerable. Price action itself tells us that.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Plan

January 22, 2021 By in DRV, DUG, GDX, IYR, Real Estate, The Speck, XOP

The image below may be the best descriptor of the (economic) plan going forward. Full (forced) compliance won’t be achieved until every vestige of small-business (Mom & Pop) is destroyed.

On the bright side, at least we know what’s coming.

The near instant, within hours fracking about face, could be used as the economic model; destroy everything and do it quickly.

Self employment (S-Corp of one) may or may not be the ultimate answer. One thing it might do, is offer more time for maneuvering. That’s critical when ‘speck’ injectors show up at large firms and force everyone into line.

With that in mind, two sectors have been the focus as opportunities for short positions.

Oil & Gas, XOP and real estate, IYR.

There are others like gold with GDX down again in the pre-market … thus confirming a bearish trend.

It could wind up that shorting GDX was the best option.

However, since there’s such rabid indoctrination into the hyper-inflation theme, it could be a bumpy road to the bottom … the exact worst thing for an inverse ETF.

Those trading vehicles prefer straight down action. Otherwise, they erode (value) quickly.

Analysis of the Oil & Gas sector was covered just recently, right along with identifying a reversal. XOP is down again in the pre-market with DUG up.

The short position in DUG is being maintained (not advice, not a recommendation) with chart analysis to come over the weekend.

Real estate, IYR shows a lower open as well.

Going short this one (via DRV) has been more time consuming. As IYR heads lower after an apparent false breakout (Wyckoff up-thrust), increasing the line (position size) is the objective; not advice, not a recommendation.

Depending on today’s price action, chart analysis on IYR and DRV will be forthcoming.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Fake Breakout

January 21, 2021 By in DRV, IYR, Real Estate, SRS 2 Comments

It’s possible yesterday’s real estate breakout was false.

This update includes three charts; two are on the weekly time-frame and one, is a 30-minute chart.

Yesterday, IYR barely nudged the resistance zone and attempted to hold. Late in the session, price action eroded a bit into the close.

We’re in a terminating wedge.

This type of action is counter-trend. Price bars overlap and are struggling against the main trend which remains down.

The 30-minute chart (above) has more detail.

Barely able to hold the highs, price action is at the boundary. Like yesterday’s update on XOP, we have IYR in a similar position:

At the edge of the lake.

Pre-market action is highly unusual (because of the wide spreads) in the IYR inverse funds SRS and DRV. However, that’s what we have now.

Pre-market in DRV points to a higher open (lower for IYR).

Anecdotal evidence from Jerimia Babe, shows us nobody’s home; a wide swath of vacant rea estate. It’s reasonable to say, this situation is repeated in various degrees nationwide.

We’re still short the sector (via DRV); admittedly it could have been better. Not advice, not a recommendation.

From a strategic standpoint (for the firm), it’s an initial position and so not too concerned about the draw-down.

At this point, two outcomes are possible with one more probable.

First, IYR price action may continue on higher (less probable) and if so, we’ll have to exit DRV.

Second, and based on pre-market action, IYR will open below yesterday’s highs, then a potential upward test, followed by downward action.

That may all happen today or over a number of days.

Lastly, based on news and internet scuttlebutt, no time will be wasted on destroying what’s left of the economy and remaining vestiges of the middle class.

The final nail could include a swift, unrelenting market collapse that includes seizure of IRA accounts (at minimum). A topic researched long ago with more detail in the link above.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Ancient Art: Point & Figure

January 15, 2021 By in DRV, IYR, Positions, Real Estate 1 Comment

You don’t hear about Pont & Figure anymore. P&F looks old, stodgy and boring; but that’s exactly how one should approach the markets to be consistently profitable.

Paraphrasing Dr. Elder from ‘Come Into My Trading Room‘, he says:

‘Trading is an old man’s game; you need to have a good, long memory.’

Well, the author of these updates is certainly old … well into his sixties and with a long memory; The crash of ’87, debt wipeout of ’98, tech bubble crash of 2000, the 2008 meltdown and now, today.

Those advanced years tempers one’s desire to constantly jump in and out on the swings. Not to say that might need to be the method at the time; but like Van Metre’s approach, the big money’s in the big move.

The jobs data released yesterday basically tells us ‘The economy ain’t coming back’ … possibly ever, in our lifetimes.

We’re at an order of magnitude greater than 1929; it was thirty years before that market returned to its prior levels.

Which brings us back to real estate and IYR. The P&F chart shows us, if there’s a breakout to the downside, initial projection of the move is to support around 69 – 73.

Keep in mind that if (or as) price action passes down through the low 80’s, it then builds up another area of congestion projecting even lower. The initial breakdown would only be the start of downside potential.

With that in mind, the firm is in position (not advice, not a recommendation) using DRV as the trade vehicle. Stop level is in the vicinity of yesterday’s DRV low @ 10.38.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Real Estate: Subdividing Lower

January 10, 2021 By in DRV, IYR, Real Estate, SRS

Lower highs, lower lows, real estate (IYR) is subdividing.

The weekly close (above) has upward thrusts getting shorter, stalling out, then reversing.

Note the massive volume; up over 234%, from the week prior.

Drilling down to the daily, price action rose slightly (last Friday) to close just under the axis line.

We’re still below the 23.6%, retrace as reported here.

Volume evaporated on the session; declining 60% from the day prior and indicating not much interest to the up-side.

This is the danger point where the risk is least. If price action continues higher from here, it’s possible IYR may attempt a new high.

Price action declining (more probable), indicates the pivot’s in place.

Right now, bonds are stretched; ready to reverse along with the dollar.

Those two markets may put the kibosh (big time) on risk assets if they short squeeze.

Recall that IYR did not follow the rest to new highs. For months, it’s been languishing, building congestion.

Stay Tuned.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.