Category Archives: Semiconductors

‘Bear Flag’, in The SOXX

August 5, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-09 1 Comment

Is This (finally) It?

As a reminder, this update said we may be at the end of the short-covering rally from the April lows.

That’s proven to be correct (so far).

From the same update, we have the weekly Fibonacci correlation at 55 weeks between highs.

With that said, let’s look at the chart.

Semiconductors SOXX, Hourly

We’re using the shorter timeframe as the flag is not that easily seen on the daily chart.

Currently positioned short as SOXX-25-09, with the stop at today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

July 27, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, CVNA-25-08, Gold & Silver, Positions, Semiconductors, SIU25, SOXX, SOXX-25-08

Gold, Silver, & SOXX

Both gold and silver futures have opened lower.

Looking at the silver contract, SIU25, it shows the past two weeks have closed lower.

Last week’s session low was 38.1.

Tonight’s session low (as of 7:38 p.m., EST) is just ticks away at 38.135.

While gold and silver appear to be under some pressure, there’s no definitive trade setup (an opinion), so, we’re going to focus instead on the A.I., mania sector, the SOXX.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily Close

The most recent recovery high and short set-up has already been covered here and here (not advice, not a recommendation).

What the chart shows, is the reasonable expectation, either the SOXX, is going to test resistance (moving higher) like Carvana did, link here, or down to test support.

Currently positioned short as SOXX-25-08 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Texas Instruments … Implodes

July 23, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-07, TXN, Wyckoff

The ‘Go-Forward’, Model?

Is this how it’s going to be when the entire SOXX, A.I. bubble, implodes?

One gap-down, after another?

TXN, earnings, link here, looks benign.

Certainly not anything seen as a material cause for an 11% crash, overnight.

‘Weaker than expected’, does not a forecast, make. Price action could have easily ‘shrugged off’ the ‘weaker than expected’. 🙂

The reality, TXN is down hard with SOXX, down with it.

The probability of reversal for the SOXX, was in price action itself; covered here and here:

This is the crux of Wyckoff analysis.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

From the 7/15 high, to 7/21, high, was Fibonacci 5-Days.

Stop on short position SOXX-25-07, has been lowered from 250.19, to 246.50 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX Top

July 21, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-07, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Last High?

Is the SOXX, calling us to say, ‘this is it?’

Of course, that’s unknown until it’s all over.

What we do know, price action posted a new high as outlined in the last update, link here.

At this point (11:50 a.m., EST), we’ve retreated from that high and are congesting at lower levels. So far, so good, for a short (not advice, not a recommendation).

We also know, shown on the weekly chart, we’re at Fibonacci Week 55, from the all-time highs.

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

The SOXX penetrated highs of July 15th, as forecast.

We’re in Up-Thrust position after having completed a potential spring-to-up-thrust, set-up.

Positioned short, SOXX-25-07, with a very tight stop at (or to be) the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, One More High?

July 18, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-05, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 3 Comments

At The Extreme

If the SOXX, continues to pressure the resistance area noted below, there’s a possibility for another new high (not advice, not a recommendation).

As yesterday’s post said, the objective is (for trading actions) to be directed by the market itself.

At this point, the SOXX is not going down, but not materially up, either.

However, we do have a minor spring set-up on the hourly shown below, suggesting the probability for another high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Hourly

Short position, SOXX-25-05, exited and on the sidelines (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … What’s Left?

July 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, China, David Weis, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-05, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust

All The Good News

Yesterday’s action falls under the ‘should have known‘, category.

Should have known, based on the price action itself, that something was up.

That ‘something‘, could be all the good news left, for Nvidia (not advice, not a recommendation).

When looking at the pre-market, hourly chart of the SOXX, the condition is obvious.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Hourly (pre-market)

The magenta oval and arrow, indicate current pre-market trading (as of 8:27 a.m., EST).

The SOXX, is trading at 247.58; just above the July 10th high, of 247.52.

At the open, we can expect the usual short-covering volatility for the first three-to-five minutes.

After that, we’ll have some idea if ‘this is it’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Delta Stalls, after Earnings

July 12, 2025 By in Airlines, Artificial Intelligence, DAL, DAL-25-02, Livermore, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-04, WMT, WMT-25-04, Wyckoff

Straight Up, to Resistance

Delta’s latest earnings release provided an excellent opportunity for a ‘changing of hands’.

We’ll have to see what happens next, to verify that premise (not advice, not a recommendation).

In a scene that could be straight out of Livermore and Wyckoff’s observations, the big players need huge volume to enter or exit positions.

For Delta, that volume event was (potentially) last Thursday.

Delta DAL, Daily

Stright up to resistance on massive volume.

Then, the next day, a lower close.

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

As noted, we’re at the 61.8%, retrace of the entire move; January 22nd, highs, to ‘tariff panic’, April 4th, lows.

The initial wave from highs-to-lows, was ‘impulsive’.

Then, and a-b-c, ‘corrective’ wave (labeling not shown), to where we are now.

All of which, brings us to ‘positioning’

Positions

As noted, short this sector as trade DAL-25-02; stop, just above Thursday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Other Markets

Discretionary exit on SOXX short, SOXX-25-04, at break-even (not advice, not a recommendation).

Maintaining Wal-Mart short, WMT-25-04, with stop lowered to 96.78 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Livermore’s Laws … Positioning

July 7, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Livermore, Loeb, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-01, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Establish Full Position(s) … Early

As the ‘About‘ page says, we’re emulating trading and analysis techniques, used by Livermore, Wyckoff & Loeb.

Livermore’s listed first, as he figured out through many gains and losses, he’s primarily, a strategist:

‘What’s likely to happen, in a big way?’

Wyckoff is next as the tactician, with Loeb as the focus; meaning, concentrate positions, do not ‘diversify’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Incremental Entries

The potential for reversal in the semiconductor index, started with this post.

From that post, the sidebar shows an initial short, labeled as: SOXX-25-01.

Moving on to this post, Nvidia was used as a proxy for the SOXX; once again, we see SOXX-25-01, in the sidebar.

The short is active, size increased by 50%, last Thursday.

Today, price action posts a new daily low, dips below resistance in 240 – 242, area, increasing probability it’s an up-thrust (reversal).

SOXX-25-01, size increased again by 30%, and we’re done.

The amount of capital planned for the position has been fully allocated.

Set The Stop, & ‘Walk’

From this point, anything can happen.

With that said, the obvious stop location for the current position, is just above today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

With a combined entry of 242.26, getting stopped out just above 242.13, would be at break-even.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia’s … Timed Top

July 4, 2025 By in GDXJ, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-01 2 Comments

Fibonacci, still In-Effect?

Insight on Nvidia’s adherence to Fibonacci, began over a year ago, with this post.

That update, identified the (interim) reversal correctly.

Since then, price action continued and has now, this (shortened) week, posted another potential correlation.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

The week closed with a high, 55-weeks from the ‘Week 89’ high, making a total of Fibonacci 144 (-1) weeks, from the October 2022, lows.

One might ask, can it be this precise?

To answer that question, we’ll go back to this analysis.

The next (trading) day, Junior Miners GDXJ, printed a new daily high (55-Days), then reversed lower for 24-weeks, a total decline over 50%.

So, it turns out, it can be that precise if market conditions are in favor, and nobody’s looking (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, (false) Breakout?

July 3, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, DUST, DUST-25-05, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-01, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Edge-of-the-Lake

At the end of the session, yesterday, a short was opened in the SOXX, as trade, SOXX-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll see below, price action finally penetrated long-standing resistance around 240 – 243, and then (so far), has stopped dead.

In the overnight session, SOXX churned higher to post 243.63, and is hovering around that level, in the pre-market.

There’s no doubt we’re at ‘the edge of the lake’, as David Weis, used to say.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily Close

It’s important to note, big cap Nvidia, is in Spring-to-Up-Thrust condition (chart not shown), with it posting new all-time-highs.

If NVDA confirms an up-thrust and heads lower, it’s likely to take the rest of the (SOXX) market down as well.

Market Positions

Positioned short the SOXX, with a stop yet to be determined; somewhere around the overnight high of 243.63 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, stop on GDX short, DUST-25-05 is being moved up to the vicinity of yesterday’s low, 23.98 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279