Category Archives: Semiconductors

The Other (Bull) Side of Nvidia

February 25, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Cramer, Interest Rates, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX 1 Comment

Who’s Is Taking Your Trade?

As a trading professional, you must know (or have a good idea) who’s on the other side of your trade.

Whom are you competing against?

It’s just one of many questions to be asked (along with price action) when estimating the opportunity; whether long or short.

Well, ladies and gentlemen, here’s some of what’s on the bullish side of Nvidia, link here.

So, according to the video, tech stocks (and Nvidia) went down because of the U.S. 10-yr Treasury?

Think about it. ‘Likes’ vs. ‘Dislikes’ on that video (as of this post) are over 13:1.

How about this:

Nvidia went down because it posted the largest ever price action down-thrust; then, went through a test of that action, completed the test, then reversed to the downside.

Wow, sounds so clear when put that way. 🙂

With that, let’s get back to reality.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Earnings are scheduled for after-hours tomorrow. Things could get interesting.

In the meantime, we have a demand line and possible channel.

As of this post (10:47 a.m., EST), NVDA has sliced through support at the 129 – 130, level with ease.

We should expect a test of that support. However, at this point, price action is quite weak (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A.I. ‘Dominoes’, Start To Fall

February 24, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Livermore, Loeb, Positions, Prechter, Semiconductors, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX, Wyckoff

Data-Center (lease) Cancellations

One of many to come?

The article at this link says the cancellation move was ‘unexpected’.

Clicking on ‘Artificial Intelligence’, (side-bar) and going back to August of ’23, with this post, then reading though subsequent posts, one can say the ‘cancellation’ was fully expected.

That August ’23, post has the link to Prechter’s analysis; we’re in the largest asset bubble in at least 300 years (not advice, not a recommendation).

All of that brings us to chief cook and bottle washer, Nvidia.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

We’ll cut straight to the chase (as of 11:35 a.m., EST).

A Fibonacci projection is overlaid starting from the all-time-high (1/7/25), to the recent lows (2/3/25), back up to test (2/18/25), then reversal, again.

Note how last Friday’s price action printed and closed near the 23.6, Fibonacci projection.

Positioning

Everyone has their own preference and style.

As stated in the ‘About‘ section, this site works to emulate behaviors of the three masters listed.

That, in addition to the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to have been mentored by the late David Weis, results in what’s available on this site.

With that said, positioning in the SOXX (the A.I. proxy) is short, via SOXS, as SOXS-25-08, initial entry link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: SOXS-25-08, stop to be moved to the day’s session low; currently 18.58 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … The Path of Bubbles Past

February 21, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Dr. Elder, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX

Modeling The Dot-Com

Nvidia looks like it’s rolling over.

There was an early morning ‘blip’ to the upside that was quickly retraced.

Known & Unknown

Some things are known.

We know Nvidia printed the largest-ever, downside thrust energy during the breakdown, January 27th.

Then came the process of retrace and test.

Also known (see chart) upside energy, i.e., Elder’s Force Index, at this point, has dissipated to almost nothing; suggesting the test is complete or near complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

At this juncture (12:18 p.m., EST) Nvidia is just 0.16-pts away from a lower weekly close and reversal bar.

The ‘Supply’ line is of course unknown until there’s more confirmation.

Bubbles Past

If we’re in a bubble, then work has already been done (link here) on what to expect when price action has tested its last to the upside, then turns lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Two … Days … Later

February 20, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX 1 Comment

A New Daily Low

Nvidia fails to break above Tuesday’s, 2/18 high; instead, prints two (new) daily lows in a row.

In addition, if this action holds, it’s now posting a weekly reversal bar.

This analysis, link here, was early in its assessment.

With new daily lows and potential weekly reversal, probabilities favor continued downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Price action opened higher … therefore painting probabilities for more upside (as postulated in yesterday’s update); it didn’t happen.

So, we’re at the potential right side of a channel. The two magenta arrows show contact points

If this channel is in-effect (i.e., correct), then demand, the lower channel line, is a long way away.

Positioning

Naturally, with all of the above, a short was opened early in the session via SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade: SOXS-25-08, stop at the SOXS low, for the day.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners, Where Risk is Least

February 19, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-01, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-07, SOXX 2 Comments

Downside Pressure

When price action’s at The Danger Point®, it doesn’t take much to stop-out a trade.

That’s where GDX, GDXJ, are now (not advice, not a recommendation).

The prior update said to watch what happens during a potential upside retrace.

With GDXJ, so far, that retrace is weak; as of this post (1:30 p.m., EST), now printing lower but still above support.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

For a short position (using JDST), we have a tight stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

The bounce off support discussed in the prior update did not go far before reversing lower … where we are now.

One has to realize we’re back to the pundits screaming ‘hyperinflation’ as was the case over four years ago.

Gold (GLD) may indeed move on to higher prices.

However, for whatever reason, the mining sector continues its multi-year non-confirmation (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positions

Short entry on GDXJ via JDST as trade JDST-25-01, with stop at yesterday’s session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately: The short in the SOXX via SOXS, has been closed.

If price action continues to exhibit buoyancy, if NVDA posts a new daily high (this week), it’s possible, as incredible as it may sound, NVDA may go on to new all-time highs (not advice, to a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

3.3 Trillion … NVDA, Reversal

February 18, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-07, SOXX 1 Comment

Closing The Gap

Is now, when everybody starts running for the exit?

The last update (link here) left with the question as to whether or not, the ‘gap’ would be closed.

Well, today’s action closed that gap.

Now, we’re in a potential reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, 4-Hour

We’re using the 4-Hour chart as it gives better detail.

As of this post (3:34 p.m., EST) NVDA has formed a 4-Hour reversal bar that so far, is not being challenged.

The index, the SOXX is reaching an (upside) extreme as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Airlines, Wedge Breakdown

February 13, 2025 By in Airlines, DAL, DAL-25-01, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter, Positions, Semiconductors, UAL Tags:

One of The First Sectors To Go

If we’re heading for a recession as Ed Dowd suggests, link here, airlines (and semiconductors) are typically one of the first sectors to turn lower.

Taking that interview, in full along with Greg Hunter’s next one, link here, the overall situation is sobering.

With that, let’s look at the airlines.

Airline Sector, Weekly

Terminating wedge has broken to the downside.

The prior channel in green is shown to present, channels for this sector have happened previously.

Currently short DAL and UAL (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Bull/Bear Struggle

February 12, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-06, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

The Pattern Repeats

Time for the ‘bag-holder’, shakedown?

One thing that can be said, big-cap Nvidia, is posting a repeating pattern:

Wyckoff ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust’

As long as NVDA, closes lower for the day, it’s at risk of downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The repeating set-up is labeled: No. 1. (spring) and No. 2. (up-thrust).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

We still have the ‘break-away’ gap posted on January 27th (not labeled), creating the unknown; will this gap be filled?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Navigating The A.I., Minefield

February 4, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Nissam Taleb, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-04, SOXX, Usual Suspects

One Trade, At A Time

Even if we knew the A.I. bubble has burst, that it’s beginning a multi-year decline (or something worse), even if it was known, trading bubbles like this, is not easy (not advice, not a recommendation).

It might be simple, but it’s not easy.

With the market in chaos, we have the usual suspects out making things complicated; sharpening their pencils, attempting to connect financials with price action.

It always looks good on the surface.

However, as Nissam Talib said in The Black Swan (paraphrasing), he’d rather have a New York street smart, hoodlum reaping a windfall, than a pointy-headed PhD on the sidelines, pontificating about how the strategy’s not consistent with mathematics.

All of which brings us to the truth, price action itself.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

Once again, the trendline has been adjusted based on price action.

The gap lower open from yesterday has been effectively closed during this session (as of 1:50 p.m., EST).

The expectation is for today’s high in the SOXX to hold; meaning, subsequent sessions will not post higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

For a short position, SOXX high of 217.27 (or the high for the day) is a good place for a stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Gap-Down, Market Panic

February 3, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-04, SOXX

That Makes It Two Times, For The SOXX

Looking at the financial press and their Sunday night-leading-to-Monday, freak-out, one would think aliens just landed like War of The Worlds. 🙂

Of course, it’s only a complete shock to those attempting to link fundamentals and financials to price movement … a never ending and futile task (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, let’s forget about multiples, taxes, and tariffs and look at what the market is actually telling us.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

Note the ‘Decisive’ Contact point.

During last Friday’s session, price action level (monitored in real time) 220 – 224, was decisively rejected with a swift retreat and lower close for the day.

Anything can happen. However, at this point, the SOXX continues lower and (for now) appears bounded by a trading channel (not advice, not a recommendation)

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279