Category Archives: Semiconductors

Nvidia … Hanging by a Thread

February 2, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Livermore, Loeb, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-04, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Below Support, and Slipping

Does one downside gap, beget another?

The gap-lower open Monday, January 27th, was only retraced by a Fibonacci 23.6%, the next day before continuing lower.

If that percentage holds, it’s a rare occurrence and represents extreme weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).

The chart for NVDA, shows we’ve had the largest down-thrust energy in history (NVDA began trading 1/22/99).

Now, it’s hanging below resistance (blue line).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Last Friday closed lower; after-hours, lower, still.

Strategy, Tactics, Focus

As the ‘About‘ section says, techniques on this site are laid out by three masters and coached, mentored, by one of, if not the best in the industry (the late David Weis).

With that said, everyone has their own style.

Currently short the sector via SOXS, as SOXS-25-04 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A.I. … From Bad to Worse

January 29, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-03, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge

Adjusting The Trendline

Now, all-of-a-sudden, it’s a ‘thing’:

DeepSeek Breaks the AI Paradigm, link here.

YeaR OF THe SeeK…DeeP SeeK, link here.

The Competency Crash, link here.

DeepSeek AI App Demonstrates Pro-CCP Bias, Influence, link here.

The list is seemingly endless. Time for everybody to pile-on to the new narrative.

However, it does beg the question, Isn’t ‘The Thing‘ somewhere on I-10, in Arizona? 🙂

Getting back to reality, chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, we’re going to adjust the trendline (just a bit) from yesterday’s update.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

The objective is, maintain short, monitor the trend for potential break (and exit), wherever and whenever that may be (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s important to note, yesterday’s action was Spring-to-Up-Thrust; penetration of the prior day’s low and high.

Then, The Fed

Also note, we have the Fed coming up with more shenanigans in about two hours (as of 12:03 p.m., EST).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Melt-Down … The Day After

January 28, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Loeb, NVDA, Semiconductors, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXS-25-03, SOXX Tags: , , , ,

‘Real Opportunities Are Rare’ … Gerald M. Loeb

Now that one pillar of the A.I. mania has vaporized, ‘what’s next?’

To begin the search, let’s start with this headline from yesterday:

“No One Was Buying”: An Ominous Post-Mortem Of What Happened Today From Goldman’s Trading Desk, link here.

That may tell us all we need to know.

But of course, it can’t be that simple. We have to make it complicated with ‘experts’ piling on, pontificating about ‘earnings growth’, ‘multiples’ and the like.

However, did any of that play into identifying the SOXX reversal, almost to the day?

Short answer is, no.

So, why would it be a factor in determining the most likely (next) outcome?

With that, let’s take a look at the chart.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

It’s an aggressive viewpoint; that is, NVDA’s not going to fill the gap and is in the midst of a sustained down-move (not advice, not a recommendation).

If the A.I. bubble, potentially the largest bubble since the South Sea, imploded yesterday, the chart seems like a reasonable viewpoint (definitely not advice, not a recommendation).

Loeb & Focus

Few people talk about Gerald M. Loeb, late Vice Chairman for E.F. Hutton

He’s the one that said to ‘focus’ one’s efforts on the few and rare, real opportunities.

With that said, NVDA and the SOXX are moving now, while other market appears stagnant.

Therefore, the focus is on this sector (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nivida … ‘Shock-n-Awe’

January 27, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-02, SOXS-25-03, SOXX, Wyckoff

SOXX, Off-The-Cliff

Just two days ago, was this (emphasis added):

“The chart below, presents a possible ‘last gasp’ for the SOXX.”

Four days before that, was this:

” … what is shown, is a repeating phenomenon; Wyckoff, Spring-To-Up-Thrust.”

In effect, Wyckoff analysis gave us a ‘head’s up’ nearly a week ago, the SOXX may be about to reverse.

That was plenty of time to decide whether to position short or stand-aside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, this morning the (tech) market’s in a panic.

Over-the-weekend news about threats to Nvidia’s lock on A.I., with this and this resulted in futures opening lower Sunday night.

Then it got worse, link here.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily (line/close)

Let’s start first, with the last update.

Now, updated as of 10:53 a.m., EST.

On the daily bar-chart (not shown), we have a massive gap-lower open.

Will that gap be filled or is this a real breakaway and the start of a long-sustained bubble deflating decline?

That of course, is unknown.

What is known and presented on this site, Wyckoff analysis, with its century old technique, spotted the potential for reversal well ahead of the actual fact (not advice, not a recommendation).

Final Note

As the sidebar shows, since the beginning of this year, there have been several attempts to position short in the SOXX via leveraged inverse fund SOXS.

Trades SOXS-25-01 (not discussed), and SOXS-25-02, were first, then closed, with trade SOXS-25-03, opened last Friday (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A.I. Bubble and Bubbles, Past

January 25, 2025 By in 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, Positions, QQQ, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-03, SOXX, Wyckoff 2 Comments

Once The Trend Was Broken

During the internet bubble of the 2000s, after the trend break in the QQQs, price action immediately began its long (multi-year) descent.

Naturally, it would follow when comparing that bubble, with the A.I. bubble, as was done here, one would have thought once the trend is broken, down we go.

Not so, today.

Instead, we have depending on how it’s measured, at least ten-weeks (so far), testing of that break.

Is it all about to change? Are we at ‘tests’ end?

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

The most recent update showing the ‘trend break’ as discussed above, is here.

The chart below, presents a possible ‘last gasp’ for the SOXX (not advice, not a recommendation).

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, the market ‘by its own action’, has told us the axis line above, is important.

If the chart is correct and we’ve had a false breakout (Wyckoff Up-Thrust), the expectation is for downside follow-through (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX or XBI … Which is ‘Right’?

December 28, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, LABD, LABD-24-21, Loeb, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI

Side by Side

Gearald M. Loeb, late Vice Chairman of E.F. Hutton, said it himself (paraphrasing).

‘If you don’t know what you’re doing (in the markets), you diversify.’

The professionals tend to have highly concentrated positions (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, let’s look at how two markets have fared during the recent downside reversal.

SOXX & XBI, Daily, Side-by-Side

If you were to position short, which would you choose?

The decline is shown from the exact start-point (Trump ‘bump’) for each market.

Biotech declined -16%, semiconductors, only -10.5%.

More importantly is the rebound (thus far).

Biotech is extremely weak, with only a 23.6% retrace off the lows. Semiconductors have launched all the way back to a 68% retrace.

Why waste time and capital (and increase risk) on a market that’s not moving lower, as quickly as others?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A Tale of Two Markets

December 16, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, Semiconductors, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI Tags: , , , ,

SOXX Powering Higher, XBI Pivoting Lower

To borrow from the Dickens classic:

It was the bullish of times, it was the bearish of times.

Bulls have regained control of the semiconductors (SOXX) for now and negated the ‘false breakout’ analysis link here.

Meanwhile, bears have moved into biotech XBI; currently testing underside resistance and axis line.

Since the active trade (LABD-24-21) is in biotech, we’ll review that market (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Weekly

The weekly shows us the ‘Axis Line’ has been part of XBI price action for at least three years.

Moving on to the daily, more detail.

Biotech XBI, Daily

There was (decisive) downside penetration, November 15th. Then, an attempted recovery that so far, has failed.

The notation ‘Short?’, was the date of this post.

As the semiconductors battle over who’s in control, for biotech, the bears seem to have established a foothold (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Broadcom … Explodes !!!

December 13, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, AVGO, Basic Materials, Semiconductors, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

It Does Not Mean, What You Think It Means …

Like something straight out of The Princess Bride, this morning’s Broadcom (AVGO) explosion, probably doesn’t mean what the ‘investing’ public thinks it means (not advice, not a recommendation).

The link above, tells us AVGO, has launched higher on a ‘bold A.I. forecast’.

A Forecast !!! … what maybe could, or might happen in the future, if nothing bad happens along the way, … maybe.

Well, let’s go to the sector itself, the SOXX, and see what the market’s really telling us.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

The bubble trend break discussed here, remains intact.

Any number of notations can be made on this chart.

There’s a downtrend line from the October 15th high (not shown), with today, as the fourth hit on that line.

The low of November 27th, to today, could be classified as ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

The list goes on.

However, the main point, and to leverage on yesterday’s update, is this:

If the building blocks of economic activity (Basic Materials) are in a (potential) long-term reversal, how are any of these so-called A.I. ‘data centers’ and the associated infrastructure going to be built?

Asking for a friend. 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX: Will Bulls Be Trapped?

December 2, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

One More Set-Up, Before Downside?

So, here we are.

Another repeating set-up.

Wyckoff: ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust’

Let’s cut straight to the chase.

This set-up type was first covered years ago, at this link.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

Until the market proves otherwise, we’re still sub-dividing lower in a downtrend (not advice, not a recommendation).

At times, a trend-break will have multiple tests.

Recall, this update said we’re at Fibonacci Week 21.

Now, with the new daily and weekly high we’ve moved to Fibonacci Week 21 (+1).

A week plus or minus, for a 21-week count, is within acceptable error limits (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Which (break) is Which?

November 30, 2024 By in 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, QQQ, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX 1 Comment

Bubbles, Side-by-Side

Here’s something a little different.

Two trend breaks are shown side-by-side.

Without looking at prior updates, which chart is the internet (QQQ) bubble break and which chart is the A.I. (SOXX), bubble break?

We’ll cue the Jeopardy music while you pick. 🙂

And now, for the reveal

Internet Bubble QQQ, Weekly

The chart segment on the right, is the internet bubble of the 2000s.

There’s no ‘rest of the story’ with the SOXX.

That story has yet to happen (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279