Category Archives: serpentza

Silver’s Bearish Divergence (again)

October 5, 2024 By in Dollar, Dr. Elder, Gold & Silver, Livermore, serpentza, SLV, UUP Tags: , , , ,

Has Our Hyperinflation ‘Nutcase’ Escaped?

Well, ladies and gentlemen, here we are.

We’re about to find out if silver (SLV), is headed for a breakout, sideways congestion and/or, outright reversal.

In a world that seems to be allergic to the truth (as serpentza, put it), we’re going to do just that; look at the truth, the price action itself.

The last update, link here, said to watch for an SLV, breakout that could fail, confirming a bearish divergence.

From the intro line, here we are.

We have the breakout.

All that’s missing is continuation higher or reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, let’s go to the truth of the matter, the SLV chart.

Silver SLV, ETF, Daily

Years ago, Dr. Elder stated, when MACD histogram and MACD lines are parallel (bearish divergence), it’s a rare occurrence.

The coming week might be the deciding factor.

Before we leave this post, let’s throw in a bonus and consider the dollar ‘collapse’ narrative.

Dollar ‘Collapse’, Where?

Below is an updated chart of the dollar index.

Note the arrow to this link, posted nearly four years ago!

Dollar Index UUP, Weekly

It’s important to note, at the time the ‘Reversal Ready’ post was created, there was absolutely no-one (that was known) indicating the dollar index was headed significantly higher.

This is what’s meant by ‘Strategy’ in the About section.

Livermore was focused on what’s going (or likely) to happen in a big way.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

When Costco Sells Gold

October 1, 2023 By in China, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, serpentza, The List, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

The Mother of All Contrary Indicators

This has to be it, right?

Selling gold in a supermarket; an expensive commodity, peddled to the least informed and least capitalized segment of the public.

Once that market’s saturated, who’s left?

Going Down Memory Lane

It’s been nearly three years since this post.

From a long-term strategy standpoint, this site has been consistent; it’s the food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

The next shoe has yet to drop on how or what’s going to be used to extract (or confiscate) precious metals from the (stacking) proletariat.

With craziness by the day, anything can happen.

Gold: Turning Points & Technical

So far, it’s been three-for-three (here, here and here) identifying recent significant technical conditions and turning points for gold, GLD.

At this juncture, the dollar collapse, and the silver/gold bull launch are just not happening. It’s not there … something else is going on (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re in the middle of a massive sovereign bankruptcy (Time Stamp 7:10) that’s never happened before.

What’s going on behind the scenes is not visible to us.

However, from a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, those (hidden) actions and decisions show up on the chart(s).

Contrary Indicator

Remember Baghdad Bob?

Constantly giving press conferences discussing the strength of the military campaign when the exact opposite was true.

It may be so with gold as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

The local supermarket has decided, after a 22-year long bull market, it’s ‘safe’ for profit.

The hapless public is now standing at the gold kiosk; with face-mask firmly secured, arm bandaged from the latest booster, EV FOB in hand (or pocket), hypnotized into yet another mania.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Supply & Demand … Junior Miners

June 29, 2023 By in GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Positions, serpentza, The List, The Speck 1 Comment

Testing The Right-Side

It’s a good thing we’re not listening to the ‘inflation’ narrative, just like we didn’t listen to ‘The Speck’ narrative of the past few years.

Turns out, ‘The Speck‘ was just the re-branded, common flu.

Inflation or Deflation

One has to wonder if the mainstream will ever acknowledge we’re in a deflation impulse.

The ‘inflation’ we’re seeing is (potentially) more associated with supply, product, and population destruction than any ‘money printing’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

As ‘Winston’ says at this link (time stamp (1:21:48),

‘People are allergic to the truth.’

The truth for the day, concerning the Junior Mining Index GDXJ, is that we’re testing the right-side trend line, the supply side.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Candle

Today’s price action is technically a ‘Key reversal’.

As such, the typical response is continuation to the upside during the coming days and or weeks.

Key reversals are not perfect and at times, will fail.

The important session for GDXJ, is tomorrow, Friday.

Continued upside most likely results in exit of short positions (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax (Crash) Clues

June 27, 2023 By in 1987, Car Questions Answered, Jerimiah Babe, KMX, serpentza

Hits ‘Target’, Then Reversal

Sales down, earnings down, car prices down, demand collapsing and yet, KMX, goes higher.

Frist off, let’s address the ‘clown show’ that bandies about ‘crash’ this, and ‘crash’ that … ad infinitum.

After you’ve said crash fifteen, thirty times or more on your YouTube channel, nobody’s listening when it really happens.

How about we all (myself included) take a cue from the late Dr. Martin Zweig as seen here, (time stamp 6:40) where he’s reluctant to say ‘crash’ even when it’s on the eve of Black Monday 1987.

Now, back to our update.

CarMax … Strategy

So, let’s review the CarMax situation from a calm but focused perspective.

Strategically, KMX has met the price target identified last October (link here), and has apparently reversed.

The ‘Dead Cat’ Has Bounced

So, was last Friday’s earnings release high of 87.06, close enough to the ’85-area’ as forecasted?

“As the magenta arrow shows, there could be small blip up to resistance in the 85-area before potentially rolling over into a descent that projects to the 4.00, level.”

It took over eight months to get back to the ’85-level’.

What happens next?

Fundamental Forces

It’s been the premise of this site, we’re at the beginning stages of the largest financial, social, and population collapse ever seen (not advice, not a recommendation).

From a CarMax perspective, we have this just out yesterday.

Car lots are overflowing and we’re playing musical chairs with inventory to make it look like something’s happening.

Next, we have a Ford employee writing in, to Jeremiah Babe, saying the Electrical Vehicle Plant is a “ghost town”.

What does that ‘clean energy’ ghost town mean for silver demand? Ah, but I digress. 🙂

We’re most likely just getting started. For a snapshot into what may come our way, take a look at this.

Now, on to the chart

CarMax (KMX) Quarterly Bar

The original chart from October 2022, is repeated below.

Now, the update.

CarMax, KMX, Daily Bar

When looking at the daily, we see we’re in Wyckoff Up-Thrust (reversal) condition.

We’re at The Danger Point®

Just so we’re not one-sided, here’s a bullish forecast for KMX (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this juncture, there’re no plans to go short (not advice, not a recommendation) … although it may not be a bad spot considering all the forces lining up.

An obvious stop level (for a short) would be last Friday’s high of KMX 87.06 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279