Are We Close?
While the Senior and Junior Miners GDX, GDXJ printed higher for the week ended last Friday, the silver miners SIL and SILJ did not.
SIL price action is hanging just above resistance on momentum (MACD), that’s posting a bearish divergence.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
For Now, At Least
All three index ETFs, GDX, GDXJ, and SILJ, posting lower, with the silver miners down the most.
The lower action couples with lower silver (SLV) and nearly lower gold (GLD).
For Junior Miners GDXJ, as of this post (12:28 p.m., EST), it’s showing ‘outside down’.
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily
It’s important to note, yesterday’s update said there would (likely) be an attempt to move higher.
That’s what happened; then, price action reversed.
The chart shows how short position, JDST-25-10, is being managed. Lowering the stop (higher for JDST) in the direction of the trade (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note, work has already been done on potential, significant reversal for gold and on-going, languishing of silver: Links here, here, here, here and here (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
You Can’t Make This Stuff Up
Wasn’t gold (GLD) going to launch ever higher in some kind of dollar-destruction, de-dollarization, worldwide meltdown?
Well, it might happen (eventually), but not today.
With today’s GLD, gap-down reversal (dollar higher), the press is gasping, groping for direction as the Chinese of all people are selling in huge amounts, links here and here.
Weren’t they just recently buying in massive quantities?
Behind all the hype and hyperbole, the potential for (a gold) reversal was identified ahead of time, links here and here.
With that said, let’s review how this site positioned itself for today’s excitement.
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily
The current short position, JDST-25-10, was opened April 25th, then doubled on the 28th (not advice, not a recommendation).
We’ve penetrated support.
Technically speaking, that puts GDXJ, in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. An attempt to move higher from here, is ‘normal’ market behavior (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Mass Liquidations?
During gold’s (GLD) way to the top, or potential top, it has posted gap-higher, after gap-higher.
That is, until now.
This past week, it has come down to fill one of the gaps.
Is this the start of other downside fills?
Before we look at the chart of GLD, let’s review a prior commodity blow-off top.
We’ll chose silver (SLV), for this example.
Silver SLV, 3-Day
There’s a lot going on in this chart.
First, this is what a commodity blow-off looks like.
Second, once this happens with volume, there’s been a significant ‘changing of hands’; it takes a long time to recover.
In fact, here we are, fourteen years later and silver SLV, has yet to reach the levels of early May 2011.
Prices are still far below, even with non-stop propaganda, experts, and grifters cheering it on.
Now, we’ll put up the chart of gold GLD.
Gold GLD, Weekly
The last time GLD posted a Force Index of 1.8B, was back in 2011, just before the last major top.
It’s important to note, the huge reading in Force Index, did not come at the exact top. It came before the top.
We’re in a similar situation. The massive Force Index reading has already posted (not advice, not a recommendation).
Then, two weeks later, we have near record liquidations in the GLD, ETF, link here.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
The ‘Extraction’ Process
Bear markets are not (always) prices going straight down, a la 1987.
Bear markets are ‘price destruction’; a series of ups and downs that effectively drain (whipsaw) the typical market account.
The last two weeks have seen record breaking extremes; the latest being this update, indicating the market posted the largest volume ever recorded.
Dodging Bullets
A case in point, this site’s narrow miss on having a huge gain (LABD-25-06, short biotech) being completely obliterated in last week’s largest short squeeze, ever.
It’s (almost) a ‘no-brainer’, this type of market behavior is not bullish (not advice, not a recommendation).
Then, The Propaganda
If it’s not dodging bullets, it’s sifting through the propaganda, half-truths, and outright lies.
The latest of these, (could be) ‘China dumping dollars’ and other ‘collapse’ narratives.
There’s volatility for sure. That’s what bear markets are about. However, this link might help mitigate the hysteria around the ‘It’s all blowing up’ narrative (not advice, not a recommendation).
In the above link, how it really works, time stamp: 17:58
So, here we are. What’s next?
Gold & Silver, Update
Even though both gold (GLD), and silver (SLV), are trading lower as of this post (12:52 p.m., EST), the Junior Miners GDXJ, posted a new daily high, thus, short JDST-25-09, was exited (not advice, not a recommendation).
Today’s activity does point to a new potential (developing) set-up, this time, silver miners SILJ.
Silver Miners SILJ, Daily
The set-up (spring-to-up-thrust) may develop from here, or it could diffuse into chaos.
It remains a possibility, until price action itself says, ‘no’.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Using The Futures Low
It was a wild ride in overnight trading for most markets; silver was one of them.
The chart below shows what’s missing on the regular session.
A huge swing lower that bottomed out in the first 10-minutes, after the Sunday (futures) open.
There’s no real commentary on the chart; we’re just showing retrace levels.
Silver, SLV, Daily
It’s reasonable to expect, if silver continues to retrace higher, the miners (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) will as well (not advice, not a recommendation).
With today’s session complete, SLV has made it back to the 38.2%, level.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
‘Closing Positions’
We’ll cut straight to the chase.
The biotech short LABD-25-05, has been closed: Profit on the main position is +61.25% (not advice, not a recommendation).
While the market is hysterical, price action in XBI, indicates the current down move is losing (some) energy, hence the reason for the exit.
Biotech XBI, Daily
Exit was made at the lower channel line (demand line) contact.
The market could certainly continue lower from here.
However, from past experience and watching huge profits erode to only mediocre results, the same mistake is not being presented here (not advice, not a recommendation).
Meanwhile, the gold miners don’t look like the safe haven everybody thought they were.
Update on that, later.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Is This It?
Those on this site daily, knew something was about to happen in a big way.
It was just, when.
Now, markets are volatile if not imploding.
Nearly all sectors reversing at once.
As of this post (10:55 a.m., EST), some of those are attempting to recover (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) with others down hard (not advice, not a recommendation).
There were plenty of clues:
Massive volume increase in GLL, strange activity in biotech, then resignation at the FDA, failure of NVDA to get back to a 50% retrace, the list goes on.
As mentioned yesterday, one sector that’s continuing lower is biotech, XBI.
Biotech XBI, Daily
There may be several trading channels in effect. Only the most aggressive (so far) is shown.
Note the locations of short positioning via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).
As of this post, the initial LABD short, entered on March 25th, is up over +40%.
Going Forward
So, what happens now?
For this trade, Livermore said it best (paraphrasing):
Position on the right side of the market (the correct direction), then wait.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Unresponsive
Sometimes, the question is not ‘what’s happening’, but ‘what’s not happening’.
In today’s case, we have gold (GLD) at new highs and the miners, not.
Not only are they not following gold higher, for the Juniors GDXJ, and the ‘Silvers’ SILJ, they both posted a new weekly low.
Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily
Last Friday was a reversal bar.
Today (so far) we have gold at new all-time highs and the miners lagging (not advice, not a recommendation).
As of this post (12:54 p.m., EST), GDXJ, has moved up to test Friday’s low.
While price action retraces to test, it’s closing the gap on the amount of risk for a short position.
With that in mind, a direct short of GDXJ, has been opened (GDXJ-25-01) with the stop at (or to be) the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: As a result of the gold hysteria, YouTube grifting, book writing, podcast interviews, dollar collapse, and ‘It’s all coming down’ mania, instant gratification on this position is not expected. 🙂
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Huge Volume In GLL, Inverse Fund
Two opposing sides.
You’ll need to decide for yourself whether this report from yesterday, or this link from Greg Hunter, is the ‘minority report’.
Which one presents an accurate assessment of the market at this point, or are they both right?
A final check of Hunter’s site prior to release of this post, we find yet another interview on gold, link here.
On the first link (above), go to time stamp 12:50, for the gold miners.
For the second link, we have the entire 53-minutes.
With that, let’s look at the short side, what the speculators and professionals are doing.
Leverage Inverse 2X, (GLD), GLL, Daily
GLL, is 2-times the inverse of gold (GLD as proxy).
The update on March 14th, link here, showed a measured move target for GLD (blue arrow).
The chart above speaks for itself. As gold (GLD) moved higher past the measured move, with GLL continuing lower volume has increased dramatically.
Of course, this does not guarantee anything.
What it does tell us, is that someone, or some entities have all-of-a-sudden, started making bearish bets on gold (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
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