It’s been a wild ride for gold, silver, and the miners.
This week, gold (GLD) posted a weekly reversal bar as did senior and junior miners, GDX, GDXJ.
Silver miners SILJ, posted an up-thrust reversal after meeting the target identified in this update.
For over a year, this site, if not outright negative on silver (SLV), has at least been ‘non-bullish’ as the metal can’t seem to get out of its own way.
So far, nothing has changed on that front (not advice, not a recommendation).
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily
With gold posting what looks to be a typical commodity blow-off top, it leaves the miners in a potentially vulnerable position (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Bear markets are not (always) prices going straight down, a la 1987.
Bear markets are ‘price destruction’; a series of ups and downs that effectively drain (whipsaw) the typical market account.
The last two weeks have seen record breaking extremes; the latest being this update, indicating the market posted the largest volume ever recorded.
Dodging Bullets
A case in point, this site’s narrow miss on having a huge gain (LABD-25-06, short biotech) being completely obliterated in last week’s largest short squeeze, ever.
It’s (almost) a ‘no-brainer’, this type of market behavior is not bullish (not advice, not a recommendation).
Then, The Propaganda
If it’s not dodging bullets, it’s sifting through the propaganda, half-truths, and outright lies.
The latest of these, (could be) ‘China dumping dollars’ and other ‘collapse’ narratives.
There’s volatility for sure. That’s what bear markets are about. However, this link might help mitigate the hysteria around the ‘It’s all blowing up’ narrative (not advice, not a recommendation).
In the above link, how it really works, time stamp: 17:58
So, here we are. What’s next?
Gold & Silver, Update
Even though both gold (GLD), and silver (SLV), are trading lower as of this post (12:52 p.m., EST), the Junior Miners GDXJ, posted a new daily high, thus, short JDST-25-09, was exited (not advice, not a recommendation).
Today’s activity does point to a new potential (developing) set-up, this time, silver miners SILJ.
Silver Miners SILJ, Daily
The set-up (spring-to-up-thrust) may develop from here, or it could diffuse into chaos.
It remains a possibility, until price action itself says, ‘no’.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Gold (GCM25) is holding steady with a marginal decline.
Silver (SIK25) has posted a characteristic opening ‘spike’ reversal (5-minute bar), threatening to move lower.
At this juncture, the important part, is what’s not happening.
That is, neither metal has had a (significant) gap-higher open; they are not continuing their unabated advances.
For silver, we’re going to update the SLV, ETF, chart.
Silver SLV, Daily
As of this post, the (futures equivalent) ETF close of last Friday (29.19), is holding.
Trading is still at the 61.8%, Fibonacci retrace.
From a positioning standpoint, this sector (precious metals) is already held short via the Junior’s leveraged inverse JDST (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
To answer that question, or at least look at the probabilities, let’s step away from the breathless, me-too herd, and see what’s really going on.
Silver, One Year Later
Before we get to what the crowd’s doing now, as a reminder, last year at this time (the crowd said), silver was supposed to be launching into a hyperinflationary breakout.
Remember that? Well, it didn’t happen. 🙂
This site posted for months, price action itself (SLV) indicated the probabilities were low for a sustained breakout, starting with this link.
However, there are times when the masses are correct. Is this one of those times?
Let’s take a look.
First, The Hysteria
To get a gage on what’s going on, we have a sample of the current mind-set, listed below.
‘Sell America’ Trade Sparks Gold-Rush, Dollar Crush As US Bond Yields Surge Most In 43 Years, link here.
Gold Euphoria, Bond Mayhem, Dollar Disgrace, link here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
We’re just hours away from the Sunday futures open.
Yesterday, military attacks on Houthi rebels have commenced; links here, here, and here.
Middle East conflict escalates.
The question is, will the markets see it that way?
Will it be ‘escalation’, with gold futures ever higher, or is it ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’?
If we’re looking at potential gold/silver related downside, then let’s review the miners; they’ve been in a bear market for nearly five years (not advice, not a recommendation).
Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly Close
Before getting to the right side of the chart, let’s start with the ‘Time’s Up’, arrow; a reversal and decline over 50%.
At this point, gold and the miners appear to be stretched with silver currently in non-confirmation.
If it was really (simple) inflation, it would be like the 1980s, with both moving in tandem.
Then & Now
With that, what has GDXJ, done in the past?
The chart itself shows us it tends to exhibit a repeating pattern of Wyckoff ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.
We may know within hours if gold, silver, and the miners, are going to reverse or launch into some kind of extended rally (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
A ‘terminating’ wedge, typically comes at the end of a move whether up or down.
In the case of silver (SLV), that wedge has formed during an up move, giving us a hint, the next significant direction may be down (not advice, not a recommendation).
Silver SLV, Weekly
There’s a lot going on in this chart.
We’re coming up on the one-year anniversary of the hyperinflation breakout hysteria; remember that?
An entire series of posts was created on silver SLV, to show that for one, it’s not in a hyperinflation breakout, and two, historic price action suggests SLV projects to either a downside reversal, or sideways congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).
In about one year, SLV moved from $24.49, to yesterday’s $28.75; hardly a launch to $100/oz. – $500/oz., or more.
The Caveat
An SLV, post above last week’s high of 29.61, is a potential negation of the above analysis.
With that said, the wedge appears to be in-effect for now.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Junior Miners GDXJ are still below 56.44, the weekly close.
Recall, at the time of ‘what’s wrong’, it was absolute hyperinflation breakout mania (as the links included, attest).
Now, with mass layoffs and terminations, will the ‘stacking’ public, especially the ones in D.C. and Florida begin selling everything that’s not nailed down? What about the rest of us?
Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily
For long-time visitors to this site, the chart almost needs no explanation (almost).
Last Friday was decisive; outside-down, on increased volume.
We’re right at support (upper blue line). There could be some upside retrace in the coming week (not advice, not a recommendation).
If so, it’s what happens during that retrace that may give us clues as to the next direction.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 