Category Archives: SOXX

Another ‘Bear Flag’, in The SOXX

August 8, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-10

From Hourly, To Daily

The last update on the SOXX, proved to be correct but short-lived.

That post showed an hourly ‘bear flag’.

Now, we have the same pattern on the daily.

Not shown on the chart, today is Fibonacci Day 8, from the most recent closing high.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

As the side bar shows, a short is open: SOXX-25-10, with a tight stop in the vicinity of 243.84 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Bear Flag’, in The SOXX

August 5, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-09 1 Comment

Is This (finally) It?

As a reminder, this update said we may be at the end of the short-covering rally from the April lows.

That’s proven to be correct (so far).

From the same update, we have the weekly Fibonacci correlation at 55 weeks between highs.

With that said, let’s look at the chart.

Semiconductors SOXX, Hourly

We’re using the shorter timeframe as the flag is not that easily seen on the daily chart.

Currently positioned short as SOXX-25-09, with the stop at today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

July 27, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, CVNA-25-08, Gold & Silver, Positions, Semiconductors, SIU25, SOXX, SOXX-25-08

Gold, Silver, & SOXX

Both gold and silver futures have opened lower.

Looking at the silver contract, SIU25, it shows the past two weeks have closed lower.

Last week’s session low was 38.1.

Tonight’s session low (as of 7:38 p.m., EST) is just ticks away at 38.135.

While gold and silver appear to be under some pressure, there’s no definitive trade setup (an opinion), so, we’re going to focus instead on the A.I., mania sector, the SOXX.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily Close

The most recent recovery high and short set-up has already been covered here and here (not advice, not a recommendation).

What the chart shows, is the reasonable expectation, either the SOXX, is going to test resistance (moving higher) like Carvana did, link here, or down to test support.

Currently positioned short as SOXX-25-08 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Texas Instruments … Implodes

July 23, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-07, TXN, Wyckoff

The ‘Go-Forward’, Model?

Is this how it’s going to be when the entire SOXX, A.I. bubble, implodes?

One gap-down, after another?

TXN, earnings, link here, looks benign.

Certainly not anything seen as a material cause for an 11% crash, overnight.

‘Weaker than expected’, does not a forecast, make. Price action could have easily ‘shrugged off’ the ‘weaker than expected’. 🙂

The reality, TXN is down hard with SOXX, down with it.

The probability of reversal for the SOXX, was in price action itself; covered here and here:

This is the crux of Wyckoff analysis.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

From the 7/15 high, to 7/21, high, was Fibonacci 5-Days.

Stop on short position SOXX-25-07, has been lowered from 250.19, to 246.50 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Financial Sector XLF … Set-Up

July 22, 2025 By in Financial Sector, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-07, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, XLF

In The Pattern

Depending on price action, we’ll get into the long-term view of Finacial Sector XLF, later.

For now, on the hourly timeframe, we’ve seen it before: Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

With about forty minutes before the open, it looks as if XLF, will come back up to resistance for a test.

Financial Sector ETF, XLF, Hourly

Spring and Up-Thrust, are labeled ‘S’ and ‘U’ respectively.

In other markets, the SOXX posted lower overnight; it’s trying its best to rally pre-market, into a higher open.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX Top

July 21, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-07, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Last High?

Is the SOXX, calling us to say, ‘this is it?’

Of course, that’s unknown until it’s all over.

What we do know, price action posted a new high as outlined in the last update, link here.

At this point (11:50 a.m., EST), we’ve retreated from that high and are congesting at lower levels. So far, so good, for a short (not advice, not a recommendation).

We also know, shown on the weekly chart, we’re at Fibonacci Week 55, from the all-time highs.

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

The SOXX penetrated highs of July 15th, as forecast.

We’re in Up-Thrust position after having completed a potential spring-to-up-thrust, set-up.

Positioned short, SOXX-25-07, with a very tight stop at (or to be) the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, One More High?

July 18, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-05, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 3 Comments

At The Extreme

If the SOXX, continues to pressure the resistance area noted below, there’s a possibility for another new high (not advice, not a recommendation).

As yesterday’s post said, the objective is (for trading actions) to be directed by the market itself.

At this point, the SOXX is not going down, but not materially up, either.

However, we do have a minor spring set-up on the hourly shown below, suggesting the probability for another high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Hourly

Short position, SOXX-25-05, exited and on the sidelines (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

First Semis, … Now, Biotech

July 16, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-05, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, XBI

The Next Set-Up

With the SOXX, reversal apparently at hand, (SOXX-25-05, active), we can continue to the next potential set-up.

As a reminder, this site’s focused on ‘strategy’ first; what’s likely to happen in a big way. Then, tactics, and after that, focus.

Moving on, we have this post from nearly two months ago; forecasting potential price action for biotech, XBI.

Clicking on the link above, reviewing the chart, let’s see where we are now.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

We’re close to the target and potential stops.

Pushing above resistance, does not guarantee a reversal.

It only means there’s likely to be instability; reading that price action, if/when it happens, will help determine the next likely outcome.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … What’s Left?

July 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, China, David Weis, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-05, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust

All The Good News

Yesterday’s action falls under the ‘should have known‘, category.

Should have known, based on the price action itself, that something was up.

That ‘something‘, could be all the good news left, for Nvidia (not advice, not a recommendation).

When looking at the pre-market, hourly chart of the SOXX, the condition is obvious.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Hourly (pre-market)

The magenta oval and arrow, indicate current pre-market trading (as of 8:27 a.m., EST).

The SOXX, is trading at 247.58; just above the July 10th high, of 247.52.

At the open, we can expect the usual short-covering volatility for the first three-to-five minutes.

After that, we’ll have some idea if ‘this is it’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia, Down Early Session

July 14, 2025 By in DAL, DAL-25-02, NVDA, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-05, WMT, WMT-25-04

Fibonacci Week 144, Holding … For Now

It’s early in the session; NVDA, has posted a new daily low, adding weight to potential reversal, at Week 144.

The SOXX, also printed a new daily low.

Repositioned short (again), with stop to be the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Other Markets

DAL-25-02, printed a new daily high (exit signal). Trade closed at break-even (not advice, not a recommendation).

WMT-25-04, stop, moved down to 95.54 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279