Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Yesterday, the 3-Day chart was the best fit for biotech, XBI.
After Thursday’s action was complete, now the daily looks better.
Either way, we’ve got a tight stop (nearly hit, yesterday), and a trendline; decisive violation of either one, indicates an exit of (short biotech) LABD-25-08 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Biotech XBI, Daily
There’s so much going on with this chart.
We’re at the point where the downtrend either continues, or morphs into a different scenario.
Even as this post was created (late Thursday), the after-hours session continues slightly lower for XBI; an encouraging sign, if short (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
We’re letting the market decide what support/resistance, trendlines, and Fibonacci levels are significant.
We’ll even make an attempt to pick the timeframe(s) that best describes current action.
There’s a lot going on in a market sense, as well as ‘behind the scenes’ with revelations like this, and this, and this.
With that said, we’re looking at the 3-Day chart and Fibonacci levels.
Biotech XBI, 3-Day
The 3-Day is being used; it best shows current trending action (planned for next update).
The XBI, has near perfect (Fibonacci) symmetry.
Price action has made its way back to the 23.6%, level, and is hesitating.
Watching the action in real time, XBI gives the sense it does not know quite what to do … is it in a pause, gathering steam to move higher, or was the massive squeeze, on Wednesday, the 9th, all there was?
Positioning
As stated in the earlier update, XBI action on the 15th, put it at The Danger Point®; the location where risk was least for a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).
It’s been slow going since then (ratcheting lower) but the one thing XBI, is not doing … is moving significantly higher.
More trade discussion, stop levels, link here (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
First, it was this (RFK Jr., nominated, then confirmed), then it was this, and now, the latest is this.
While the financial press toys with the idea ‘the worst is over‘, (which might be true), with biotech, price action itself says it may be preparing for its next leg … lower.
Biotech XBI, Hourly
We’re drilling down to the hourly; it shows (as of 12:24 p.m., EST) a Fibonacci a-b-c, corrective retrace.
Wave ‘a’, was the massive short squeeze.
Wave ‘b’ was a test of the lows; then on to wave ‘c’, the same (net) distance as wave ‘a’, making it a 1:1 (potentially complete) corrective move.
Also note the ‘alternation’.
Wave ‘a’, was essentially straight up. Then, wave ‘c’ alternates and is a labored slow process, ratcheting higher.
We’re at The Danger Point®, where the risk of a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).
Currently short, Trade: LABD-25-08, with stop at the LABD, session low (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As the prior update stated, the LABD-25-06, trade was exited in the pre-market yesterday. XBI was at support and that was the reason for exit.
At the time it was unknown, later in the session, we’d get (potentially) the largest short-covering rally in history.
Currently (as of 8:03 a.m., EST), XBI, is trading slightly lower.
Depending on the regular session action, the short trade (via LABD) may be re-opened (not advice, not a recommendation).
Gold Tops
For gold (GLD), large volume, wide price swings can be signs of trouble.
Yesterday was huge volume and price bar, resulting in a ‘Force Index’ reading of ‘257.8’-mil.
That does not necessarily mean anything until it’s put into context.
That last time there was a similar high-energy move was March 8th, 2022; a ‘Force’ reading of 243.1-mil, that put in a top, not exceeded for nearly 2-years.
Miners Test
Then, the miners, GDX, GDXJ.
For this update we’ll look at the Juniors, GDXJ.
Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily
There was a breakdown (with gap) from the wedge. That breakdown has been tested.
Along with the test potentially complete, the price gap from last Friday’s action (4/4/25) has essentially been closed.
Positioning
Short the GDXJ, via JDST as Trade JDST-25-07; the stop is (equivalent to) a few ticks above yesterday’s (56.18) GDXJ high (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As biotech XBI, nears support levels (charts forthcoming), all short trades have been closed in the pre-market session (not advice, not a recommendation).
Trade LABD-25-06, was closed just after 7:00 a.m., EST with a profit slightly above +27%.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Early yesterday, biotech XBI, got stretched into an apparent squeeze.
That squeeze printed a high at 75.86, which as of this post (10:43 a.m., EST) is holding.
The chart shows what’s technically called ‘inside action’ or an ‘inside bar’. Today’s trading is taking place within the range of yesterday’s bar.
Biotech XBI, 4-Hour
There’s a lot going on.
The expectation was for this morning’s open to post above yesterday’s high; it didn’t happen.
As of this release, price action remains tight, not pushing significantly higher or lower.
Tight action typically precedes a directional move.
Positioning
With the above conditions in play, a short has been re-established (LABD-25-06) with a very tight stop … one, or two ticks, above yesterday’s XBI, high. (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
There are sure to be plenty of post-mortems over the weekend; usual suspects giving us their assessment on what’s already happened. 🙂
Sometimes the question, is not ‘what’s happened’, but ‘what has not happened’.
That’s where the opportunity may lie.
Market Implosion
Over the past week, there were wide price bars, with action unstable in all major indices (ETFs): DIA, IBB, IWM, IYM, IYR, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, XLF, and XOP.
However, what did not implode (completely), are the car dealerships; specifically, CarMax and Carvana.
For this update, we’ll look at CarMax.
CarMax, KMX, Weekly Close
On a close basis, KMX, has bounced off the lower wedge boundary and is near the resistance area (magenta line).
Price action could be positively biased in the coming week as a result of ‘tax refund’ car buying (not advice, not a recommendation)
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The biotech short LABD-25-05, has been closed: Profit on the main position is +61.25% (not advice, not a recommendation).
While the market is hysterical, price action in XBI, indicates the current down move is losing (some) energy, hence the reason for the exit.
Biotech XBI, Daily
Exit was made at the lower channel line (demand line) contact.
The market could certainly continue lower from here.
However, from past experience and watching huge profits erode to only mediocre results, the same mistake is not being presented here (not advice, not a recommendation).
Meanwhile, the gold miners don’t look like the safe haven everybody thought they were.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 