Category Archives: $SPSIBI

Bottoms, Tops & Tests

April 10, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, LABD, LABD-25-06, Positions, SPBIO, XBI

Biotech Bottoms, Gold Tops, Miners Test

Bear markets, different rules.

Huge, swift declines, followed by face-ripping, short-covering rallies.

Yesterday was a day just like that.

When price action is moving quickly, one of the dangers is being hypnotized.

Biotech Bottoms

Looking at the biotech data from yesterday, the XBI, posted a bottom of, wait for it, 66.66.

Where have we seen that before?

As the prior update stated, the LABD-25-06, trade was exited in the pre-market yesterday. XBI was at support and that was the reason for exit.

At the time it was unknown, later in the session, we’d get (potentially) the largest short-covering rally in history.

Currently (as of 8:03 a.m., EST), XBI, is trading slightly lower.

Depending on the regular session action, the short trade (via LABD) may be re-opened (not advice, not a recommendation).

Gold Tops

For gold (GLD), large volume, wide price swings can be signs of trouble.

Yesterday was huge volume and price bar, resulting in a ‘Force Index’ reading of ‘257.8’-mil.

That does not necessarily mean anything until it’s put into context.

That last time there was a similar high-energy move was March 8th, 2022; a ‘Force’ reading of 243.1-mil, that put in a top, not exceeded for nearly 2-years.

Miners Test

Then, the miners, GDX, GDXJ.

For this update we’ll look at the Juniors, GDXJ.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

There was a breakdown (with gap) from the wedge. That breakdown has been tested.

Along with the test potentially complete, the price gap from last Friday’s action (4/4/25) has essentially been closed.

Positioning

Short the GDXJ, via JDST as Trade JDST-25-07; the stop is (equivalent to) a few ticks above yesterday’s (56.18) GDXJ high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Nears Support Levels

April 9, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-06, Positions, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

Trades Closed in Pre-Market

As biotech XBI, nears support levels (charts forthcoming), all short trades have been closed in the pre-market session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade LABD-25-06, was closed just after 7:00 a.m., EST with a profit slightly above +27%.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech’s ‘Inside Action’

April 8, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-06, Positions, SPBIO, XBI

Holding The High

Early yesterday, biotech XBI, got stretched into an apparent squeeze.

That squeeze printed a high at 75.86, which as of this post (10:43 a.m., EST) is holding.

The chart shows what’s technically called ‘inside action’ or an ‘inside bar’. Today’s trading is taking place within the range of yesterday’s bar.

Biotech XBI, 4-Hour

There’s a lot going on.

The expectation was for this morning’s open to post above yesterday’s high; it didn’t happen.

As of this release, price action remains tight, not pushing significantly higher or lower.

Tight action typically precedes a directional move.

Positioning

With the above conditions in play, a short has been re-established (LABD-25-06) with a very tight stop … one, or two ticks, above yesterday’s XBI, high. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

While The Market Panics

April 4, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. Elder, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, LABD, LABD-25-05, Positions, SILJ, SPBIO, XBI

‘Closing Positions’

We’ll cut straight to the chase.

The biotech short LABD-25-05, has been closed: Profit on the main position is +61.25% (not advice, not a recommendation).

While the market is hysterical, price action in XBI, indicates the current down move is losing (some) energy, hence the reason for the exit.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Exit was made at the lower channel line (demand line) contact.

The market could certainly continue lower from here.

However, from past experience and watching huge profits erode to only mediocre results, the same mistake is not being presented here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Meanwhile, the gold miners don’t look like the safe haven everybody thought they were.

Update on that, later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Markets Implode !

April 3, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GLL, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, LABD, LABD-25-05, Livermore, Positions, Semiconductors, SILJ, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI

Is This It?

Those on this site daily, knew something was about to happen in a big way.

It was just, when.

Now, markets are volatile if not imploding.

Nearly all sectors reversing at once.

As of this post (10:55 a.m., EST), some of those are attempting to recover (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) with others down hard (not advice, not a recommendation).

There were plenty of clues:

Massive volume increase in GLL, strange activity in biotech, then resignation at the FDA, failure of NVDA to get back to a 50% retrace, the list goes on.

As mentioned yesterday, one sector that’s continuing lower is biotech, XBI.

Biotech XBI, Daily

There may be several trading channels in effect. Only the most aggressive (so far) is shown.

Note the locations of short positioning via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post, the initial LABD short, entered on March 25th, is up over +40%.

Going Forward

So, what happens now?

For this trade, Livermore said it best (paraphrasing):

Position on the right side of the market (the correct direction), then wait.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Hits Target … After-Hours

April 2, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, CVNA, LABD, LABD-25-05, Positions, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

That Makes ‘Twice’

That’s two times in a row, Carvana hit a target area (presented on this site) in the after-hours session.

The last time was here, CVNA printed 310, in the after-hours on February 19th.

Then, just hours ago, price action thrust higher into the zone in this post, printed at 243.6, then collapsed.

We never got to ‘Day 34’.

However, the real story may be in biotech XBI, with huge swings in both directions; currently (as of 6:35 p.m., EST) trading below today’s regular session low.

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Craters on FDA News

April 1, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Bloomberg, LABD, LABD-25-05, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge

Someone, Always Knows, Something

One week ago today, was this (emphasis added):

If the trendline is in-effect, meaning the market’s hanging in mid-air in a false breakout, getting back into that trend may result in some dramatic downside action.

Well, we got the dramatic downside.

Biotech XBI, collapsed nearly -11%, and 3X Inverse Fund LABD, is up +38%, and climbing.

As Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘Someone always knows something … and that ‘something’, shows up on the tape.’

It turns out in this case, showing up on the tape, was this, and this.

Biotech XBI, Daily

The chart from the week-ago post, has been updated.

As is typical, the ‘reason’ for last week’s price action comes out later, after the fact.

Positioning

At this point, trade LABD-25-05, is being maintained (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech’s … ‘Axis of Six’

March 27, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-05, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, XBI 1 Comment

A Number Recurring Trough Time

You’ll have to judge for yourself if the chart with closing numbers and axis line, are of importance.

As a reminder, let’s not forget where the S&P bottomed, in 2009.

‘The S&P hit a low of 666, intraday’

With that, this update will be brief.

Biotech Sector Index, SPBIO, Daily Close

We’re using the actual index (SPBIO) and not the XBI, ETF, typically traded as a proxy.

After hours (as of 6:53 p.m., EST) has the ETF, XBI, trading unchanged to slightly lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Breakout ‘Uncertainty’

March 25, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter, LABD, LABD-25-05, Positions, SPBIO, XBI 2 Comments

No-Man’s Land

The markets don’t like uncertainly and that’s just what we have with biotech.

As the chart shows, the question becomes; is it a trend breakout, a breakout and test or a breakout, test, then possible failure?

This interview with Ed Dowd just days ago, paints a bearish picture for the overall markets.

If so, and we apply that scenario to biotech, the odds don’t seem to favor the upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, let’s get to the action.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Last Friday, the 21st, was Fibonacci Day 89, from the November 11th, 2024, highs.

If the trendline is in-effect, meaning the market’s hanging in mid-air in a false breakout, getting back into that trend may result in some dramatic downside action.

On the bullish side, if it’s an upside breakout, ‘normal’ behavior is for a ‘test’ of the trendline.

Either way, both scenarios favor more downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Bleeds Down

March 23, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-03, LABD-25-04, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI

Loss Of Upside

‘He’s Dead, Jim!’

While we can’t officially declare biotech dead like ‘Bones’ Dr. McCoy, we can say the charts below, paint a less than bullish picture.

The XBI, is so packed full of nuances, it needs at least two charts.

Biotech XBI, Daily

First, apparent weakness.

Price action’s only been able to retrace 23.6%, after penetrating support (blue line) and forming a Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up.

On the far right, just below the magenta line, the grey lines show a minor up-thrust (reversal).

Next, we have a series of spring set-ups, that have failed.

Each time a spring condition is created, price action rises for a brief period, then collapses.

At the far right, the spring (shown in the first chart) appears to have failed; now subdividing lower.

Positioning

During Friday’s session, as price action began to rise unexpectedly, short LABD-25-03, was closed.

Then, late in the day after XBI appeared to have reached its high and reversed, a new short position, LABD-25-04, was opened (not advice, not a recommendation).

Obviously, the expectation for the coming week, is XBI to continue lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279