Category Archives: Up-Thrust

Boeing: ‘Pick Me’

May 29, 2025 By in BA, BA-25-04, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust

The Set-Up, is In

No matter what happens from here, Boeing has met conditions of a repeating set-up: Spring-to-Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

A ‘set-up’, does not guarantee anything.

It just means, market behavior is such, there’s a potential for correlated (i.e., directional) movement.

The last update said there was a possibly of ‘spring failure’.

It gave specific conditions for potential failure … neither of which, happened: BA, did not open lower that day and the weekly low, was not penetrated.

All of which, brings us to now.

Early this session, BA, launched into up-thrust condition as the ‘result’ of news, link here.

Forecast In Advance

It’s important to note, potential for today’s move was forecast with this update, including upside target.

That forecast had nothing to do with ‘news’, but everything to do with how markets (tend to) behave.

So, here we are. 🙂

Boeing, BA, Daily

Penetration of the target area creates an up-thrust. On the daily we have ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

Not only is the daily a repeating set-up, but the weekly is as well, shown here.

Problems, A-Plenty

The problems for Boeing have not disappeared.

The CEO hinted at this, when he clarified his comments at the conference (paraphrasing):

‘Moments later, he corrected himself and said he wants to ‘get ready’ for production ramp-up, in hopes to meet (target) production levels’

One doesn’t decide to instantly ramp up production and then ‘poof’, it happens.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Boeing … Pre-Market

May 27, 2025 By in BA, BA-25-02, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Exit & Set-Up

It’s never fun to wake up ‘in-the-red’ but that’s where Boeing BA-25-02 (short) was in the pre-market.

Based on the chart, with Friday’s lower close, price action had one of two choices; post lower and continue the decline or push higher from the spring set-up as shown.

Looks like we’re set-up to see if the (up-thrust) target area is met (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, the short was exited pre-market with an overall loss of 0.99%.

Boeing BA, Daily (pre-market)

Note, from the high on 5/14, to the low, last Friday, is Fibonacci 8 Days.

If the correlation remains intact, we’ll be looking for a potential target set-up, on Fibonacci Day 13.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Hits The Wall

May 21, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-01, CVNA-25-02, CVNA-25-03, Hindenburg, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

New Daily Low

Carvana’s down – 2.53%, at 10:21 a.m., EST.

The new daily low confirms we have some kind of top; maybe the top (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s also been a trendline break. A trend in-effect, for over a month.

Lastly, as we’ll see below, CVNA, has been in Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ position for the past five trading days.

Not only that, but we also have a repeating set-up, seen many times in the markets, detailed here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Let’s not forget the ‘unique’ fundamentals, link here.

Positioning

Those on this site for the past two weeks, have seen (in real time) several attempts to position short (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last trade, CVNA-25-02, was stopped out early Monday, at 304.52.

Reviewing the price action, CVNA had posted a minor spring-to-up-thrust.

The prior session’s low and high were penetrated.

Once that was observed, no hesitation; re-position short (CVNA-25-03) with new stop at that day’s high 306.98 (not advice, not a recommendation).

That’s where we are now.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Exxon Reversal

May 15, 2025 By in Wyckoff, Positions, XOP, Oil, Oil & Gas, XOM, Up-Thrust, XOM-25-01

Picture Perfect

Exxon’s is one of the large-caps in the Oil & Gas sector ETF, XOP.

The potential for (downside) reversal in XOP, first presented here.

As part of the prep work to position short, the question was whether to short XOP, or one of the big caps.

As you can be seen, since XOM-25-01, is in the sidebar, we’ve gone short Exxon during yesterday’s session (not advice, not a recommendation).

As the chart shows, there was a small gap lower yesterday, presenting the risk that it would be filled before action continued lower.

That might still happen.

However, with XOM down 1.83 pts., in the pre-market (as of 9:12 a.m., EST), upside probabilities have lessened.

Exxon XOM, Daily

We have what appears to be, a picture-perfect Wyckoff up-thrust, and reversal.

If yesterday’s gap-lower open is not filled, then it’s a ‘breakaway’ gap, indicating (probability for) much lower prices ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Testing The Highs

May 12, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-01, Positions, Up-Thrust

Watch The Volume

The last update said:

“A New (closing) High?”

That’s what happened with CVNA, closing out that session (5/8/25), at 285.53.

If there are no new daily highs from here, CVNA is either posting a (potential) double top or an up-thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Either way, the technical item to watch, is the volume and the prior session’s high, 284.23 (as a stop level).

If volume contracts from the previous session, it’s possible the highs have been tested and we’re heading lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

At 2:30 p.m., EST, it’s still a long way to the close; we won’t know until then.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil Sector (short) Target

May 5, 2025 By in CLM25, Oil, Oil & Gas, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XOP 1 Comment

Looking For The Breakout … That Fails

At this juncture, oil futures are in a minor ‘spring’ position, ready to move higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

The gap lower open discussed in last night’s update, has been closed (as expected).

What we’re looking for now (for potential XOP short), is a push higher in the futures (CLM25) to the 60 – 61 area.

Oil & Gas Sector ETF, XOP, Daily

At mid-session, XOP is trading right at resistance.

Note: Two gaps straddle the wide-high volume bar of April 3rd. As we know, wide, high-volume bars, tend to be tested.

That’s what we’re looking for.

An upside test of at least one of the gaps that fails; thus creating a Wyckoff up-thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Stop, Drop, And Roll

April 30, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, Federal Reserve, Semiconductors, SOXX, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Then, There’s Carvana

The SOXX, hit resistance, stopped, dropped, and could be rolling over for more downside … or not.

Maybe there’s something else developing.

Something like a set-up to penetrate resistance, creating a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

The magenta dashed line is the 38.2%, retrace for the entire downside move; from the top on July 11th, 2024, to the lows on April 7th.

Note the potential Fibonacci time correlation, just before the Fed announcement on May 7th.

As with Carvana (CVNA), we’re nearing a potential inflection.

Also note, Carvana has dropped from the current resistance area (around 240) making that level the more probable area for an up-thrust, rather than yesterday’s 310-location (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Breakdown … Part 1

April 19, 2025 By in Bonds, Goldman, TLT, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

The Big Picture

If things don’t change soon, the wheels have come off the bond market (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this point, it’s common knowledge the (U.S. Treasury) bull market of forty-years, ended in March of 2020.

It’s been nothing but rates ratcheting higher, ever since.

Recession Reversal … Where?

However, a strange thing happened on the way to the anticipated bond reversal … typically, a long-time indicator of an impending recession.

Just weeks ago, during the market meltdown with the largest trading volume ever recorded, bonds did not respond as expected.

The Blip

During that wipe-out, bonds (TLT) blipped higher into a false breakout, a Wyckoff Up-Thrust, and have since collapsed on the largest weekly downside (thrust) energy and volume ever seen.

Next update, the charts.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Hanging By A Thread

July 13, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-12, SOXX, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

SOXX Bulls, Lose Their Grip

For most of Friday’s session, SOXX bulls looked like they would make it.

Price action pushed up to within 1%, of a new all-time-high.

Levels threatening the A.I. reversal scenario right up until 30-minutes before the close.

Then, the air came out.

The SOXX, closed up for the day, but just under the breakout, shown in the chart below.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Along with closing below resistance (blue line), price action did so on contracting volume.

Volume contraction implies, commitment to higher prices is weak (not advice, not a recommendation).

Sentiment, Volume, Price

That’s the reversal construct being used on this site.

First, the sentiment, then volume, then finally, the price.

Looking at the 5-Year Weekly chart of Nvidia, we can see it playing out in real-time.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

The professionals have already left the chat; storm clouds are beginning to appear.

So far, ‘Week 89’ reversal remains intact.

The Danger Point®

From an engineering standpoint, the SOXX, has met the requirements for a Wyckoff up-thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

First: Price action posted an outside-down reversal (last Thursday), on increased volume and closed below established resistance.

Second: That reversal was then tested (on Friday) and did so, on contracting volume.

Third: MACD, divergences on Weekly and Daily timeframes; although near-term weekly has yet to tick lower but still (diverging) below the highs of this past March.

    Intuitively, you can feel that something’s up. The A.I. pump-n-dump set-up may have run its course.

    Stay Tuned

    Charts by StockCharts

    Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

    The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279