The case is building for Nvidia’s downside reversal; this morning’s pre-market action, is no exception (not advice not a recommendation).
With the caveat that anything can happen, we have in the chart below, nascent confirmation(s) of a downside channel.
Nvidia NVDA, Daily
Within the channel, we’re also in Wyckoff Spring position (testing support), ready to move higher.
However, springs can fail.
If Nivida opens lower in the regular session (currently, 8:05 a.m., EST), ‘normal’ market behavior is an attempt to close the gap (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Carvana, launched itself above resistance at Friday’s close. In so doing, got itself into another wedge.
Now we have Expedia, looking eerily similar (not advice, not a recommendation).
Like eBay, we’ll start with the long term, quarterly chart.
Expedia EXPE, Quarterly
The latest earnings release pushed EXPE up, contacting the upper trendline.
A gap higher and close of +17.55%, in one day.
EXPE has since backed off the all-time high; currently down about -8.5%.
Edge of The Wedge
The following is a partial list of tickers either forming a (monthly) terminating wedge, or have broken out to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation)
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
There’s plenty of discussion about A.I. saving the day.
Ed Dowd has presented in his interviews, from an overall economic standpoint, the A.I. ‘excuse’ for efficiency improvements, layoffs, is just a ruse to cover the fact, demand is collapsing.
With that said, AMZN has broken the downside of its wedge and has potentially completed a test of that break.
With futures to open soon, we might find out (today) if downside action is to continue (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
“Technically speaking and from a Wycoff standpoint, any push past and into the 38%, level (lower, blue dashed-line), puts CVNA in ‘up-thrust’ (potential reversal) position.”
For that day, CVNA retraced upward to 50%, posted the up-thrust, then reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).
Carvana CVNA, Daily
Depending on A.I., and Nvidia specifically (more upside?), there’s a chance of a close above the 332.33 level previously discussed (not advice, not a recommendation).
However, some think last week was ‘it’; the market has cracked.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Warren Buffett has a massive cash hoard; now, famous short-seller Michael Burry is calling it quits, links here, here and here.
The last time this type of news happened in a big way, was right around the Nasdaq peak in 2000 (not advice not a recommendation).
Back then, ‘old-timers’ with forty-years in the business, were throwing up their hands, throwing in the towel and retiring; the market ‘did not make sense anymore’.
NVDA, CVNA & Biotech
With Nvidia posting a new low today, the analysis shown here, is proving to be accurate thus far (not advice, not a recommendation)
Additionally, Carvana posted an up-thrust (reversal) as presented in this post (not advice, not a recommendation).
Next up, is biotech, XBI.
Biotech XBI, Hourly
We’re in up-thrust condition (potential reversal) have a ‘sign of supply’ and now testing the upside.
Note: The ‘test’ has exceeded the previous high. Although rare, it can happen.
So, is it a test or a continuation of an upside breakout?
The rest of the markets seem to be in a similar condition.
Carvana just posted a new daily high (as of 11:25 a.m., EST), possibly taking out the (early) shorts.
Let’s see if it manages to close above that 332.33, level discussed in this post (not advice, to a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
With about 15-minutes before the regular open, CVNA has moved slightly higher from yesterday and is nearing Fibonacci retrace levels.
Technically speaking and from a Wycoff standpoint, any push past and into the 38%, level (lower, blue dashed-line), puts CVNA in ‘up-thrust’ (potential reversal) position.
The preferred scenario is a session close within the ‘Up-Thrust Zone’ (not advice, not a recommendation).
Separately, this link is one of the most recent, describing the precarious overall condition of the market.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Based on price action itself, the miners are refusing to retrace higher.
The last update suggested a retrace to the usual location(s), at least the 38.2% level, the vicinity of ‘wave iv’.
So far, not even that is happening.
Senior Miners, GDX, Daily
Pre-market trading in GDX (as of 8:24 a.m., EST) is lower.
At this point, from the chart above, we can see the index struggling to move higher.
Elliott Wave or not (from previous post), Wyckoff method says the market itself defines the next likely move.
It’s possible we’re not at the bottom of the current down leg; that we’ll post lower before making a serious retrace attempt (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Seen as far back as the late 1980s, on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser, but I digress.
So, here we are, waiting for the next shoe to drop.
‘Isolated’
That label replaces the ’07 – ’08, meltdown term of, ‘contained‘.
Using the aforementioned theory, do we really think that UnitedHealth, is an isolated incident?
Instead of presenting an opinion, let’s go to the market itself and see what it’s telling us.
Healthcare Sector XLV, Weekly Close
We’ve just had the largest upside pressure in the history of XLV, back as far as 1999.
After that, it not only stalls, but prints a Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) right along with a terminating wedge.
Note, after the record setting Force Index, further upside pressure has evaporated.
It’s as if the bulls abandoned the market, exhausted.
As Ed Dowd said in a recent interview, link here, these types of record-breaking moves are typically ending moves; not the beginning of a next leg up (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 