Category Archives: YouTube Black Swan

Straight of Hormuz

March 27, 2026 By in Food Supply, Genesis 41, YouTube Black Swan Leave a comment

Choke Point

Take aways from Black Swan YouTube channel, link here

Prolonged disorder

Structural energy shock

No clear resolution

Fertilizer constrictions to (potentially) cause the greatest food insecurity challenge in history

On it goes.

The entire video is worth the time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Downside Breakaway … SOXX

March 21, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, DIA, Dow 30, Nasdaq, NVDA, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-26-04, YouTube Black Swan 2 Comments

Some Gaps, Never Filled

The day after the SOXX, topped on February 25th, was, this update.

In the case of Nvidia, it never printed or closed above the high reached on that day.

Well, the SOXX never made it back either.

Then, March 3rd, we have what looks like a ‘breakaway’ gap.

There’ve been at least two attempts to close that gap.

One of those attempts, a Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up, which may have failed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Other markets have rolled over as well; the Dow, S&P, the Qs, Biotech and so on (not advice, not a recommendation).

This just out, shows the typical response to an oil price shock, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Last Time, Was ’29

March 14, 2026 By in 1929, 2007 - 2008, Alice Cheung, GLW, GLW-26-01, GLW-26-02, GLW-26-03, GLW-26-04, GLW-26-05, GLW-26-06, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Oil, S&P 500, SPY, USO, YouTube Black Swan Tags: , ,

Hundred-Year Extremes

Going all the way back, this link, shows we’ve gone beyond 1929 levels.

It seems, nearly every recession (depression) gets kicked off with a spike in oil prices.

In 2008, USO peaked during the week of July 11, that year.

However, the damage was done.

The S&P (SPY) was already in decline, having peaked the week of October 12th, a year earlier.

Another Extreme

Not to be outdone with the valuation extreme, we have the mutual fund cash extreme at this link.

Mutual fund managers are ‘all-in’, Time Stamp 4:15 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Then, there’s ‘private credit’, link here.

Now, on to the trade du jour.

Corning GLW, Weekly

As GLW, was breaking out from generational highs, three attempts were made to short; result, small losses.

Adjusting Behavior

The most important take-away, is the behavior change as a result of losing entries; that is, stand-aside.

As said many times on this site:

“There’s nothing wrong with being wrong. It’s being wrong and staying wrong that’s the problem”

Once the Fibonacci sequence was identified, link here, short positioning continued.

Next Steps

Anything can happen.

For the chart above, the stop on the -06, trade is last Friday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that high as minor resistance, there’s also the weekly high at 139.63, for additional ‘protection’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Seasonal Forces

January 21, 2026 By in VIX-Calendar, YouTube Black Swan

Alignment of The Stars

As the links show, we’re in a seasonal period of higher volatility (first quarter of the year), link here, while being pressured by long-term cyclical forces, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279