How Nvidia Drops, -90%

November 8, 2025 By in 1899, Artificial Intelligence, Elliott Wave, NVDA, Prechter, Semiconductors 1 Comment

Terminating Wedge

It could be a slow grind, a series of ‘air-pockets’, or of course, not at all.

Using time-tested classical analysis, along with a dash of Elliott Wave, shows us we just had a terminating wedge ‘throw-over‘.

The video in the attached link, is brief and concise.

Throw-overs are (typically) major reversal indicators (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of yesterday, Friday, that’s where we are.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily Close

As seen with Nvidia, literally anything can happen. It could somehow recover, go sideways, or collapse.

If price action gets to the lower wedge, then breaks down, the ‘measured move’ for such a break, is -80%, to -90%, lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Crash in The Past

The crash of 1899, shows us that just because we got past October without fanfare, a crash can happen at any time.

A prior update, written three-years ago, describes that crash, link here.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Margin Call

November 7, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXX, Thoughtful Money

‘So, It Begins’

“Incredibly Dangerous”; the tagline on the last update for semiconductors, A.I. and the SOXX, link here.

The chart for the SOXX, showed a measured move, to the 320-area.

It never made it.

After-hours on October 29th, the SOXX high was 313, exactly.

Conversely, the high for Nvidia, same day, was 212.19 which rounds to 212.2. It’s all just a ‘concidence’. 🙂

Old Spin & New Spin

Just like that, the press has thrown out the old propaganda and ushered in the new.

Now, it’s an ‘implosion’, link here and here.

As of yesterday’s close, (188.08), NVDA is down -11.36%, from all-time highs.

That’s the ‘implosion’?

Remember, Ed Dowd said in this interview (time stamp: 20:00), ‘when it’s all said and done’, he expects NVDA, to be down by -90% (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … ‘Edge of The Wedge’

November 6, 2025 By in CVNA, Wyckoff 3 Comments

Measured Move

Carvana’s right at the edge of a (terminating) wedge that’s been years in the making.

Let’s not worry though; here’s a ‘fanciful’ report that says it’s a buying opportunity, link here.

If there’s one takeaway from using Wyckoff analysis, it’s to ‘ignore the news’, and let the market itself tell us the next likely direction.

So, let’s do that.

Carvana CVNA, Weekly

Well, there it is. The wedge

A measured move (not shown) puts the potential location of a wedge breakdown at approximately the 90.00 area (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners: ‘Retrace’ Update

November 5, 2025 By in Deflation, Ed Dowd, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, UUP 1 Comment

Bounce

The chart insert at left, shows Senior Miners, GDX, have bounced off support (blue line), making another attempt at a retrace.

The lower magenta dashed line is 38.2%, with the 50% level, as the upper line.

If this retrace attempt fails by posting successive lows below ‘support’, it indicates we may already be in the ‘deflationary scare’ as discussed by Ed Dowd many times in his interviews (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note the dollar (UUP proxy) is currently in a rally.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners Struggle to Move Higher

November 4, 2025 By in Elliott Wave, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Not Happening

Based on price action itself, the miners are refusing to retrace higher.

The last update suggested a retrace to the usual location(s), at least the 38.2% level, the vicinity of ‘wave iv’.

So far, not even that is happening.

Senior Miners, GDX, Daily

Pre-market trading in GDX (as of 8:24 a.m., EST) is lower.

At this point, from the chart above, we can see the index struggling to move higher.

Elliott Wave or not (from previous post), Wyckoff method says the market itself defines the next likely move.

It’s possible we’re not at the bottom of the current down leg; that we’ll post lower before making a serious retrace attempt (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

High Yield Breakdown

November 3, 2025 By in Bonds, HYG, Interest Rates 2 Comments

Is This It?

If there’s trouble, high yield bonds typically break down (rates higher) early in the cycle (not advice, not a recommendation).

When looking at the chart of ETF sector fund HYG, that’s what we have.

A rising, terminating wedge, then break to the downside.

High Yield, HYG, Daily

The magenta arrow shows pre-market trading (as of 7:55 a.m., EST), significantly lower.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Healthcare at The Wedge

November 2, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, Bernanke, Ed Dowd, Health Care, Thoughtful Money, UNH, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XLV, XLV-25-08

Looking Behind The Curtain

Healthcare’s recent behavior seems to have revived an old theory:

The ‘cockroach theory‘

Seen as far back as the late 1980s, on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser, but I digress.

So, here we are, waiting for the next shoe to drop.

‘Isolated’

That label replaces the ’07 – ’08, meltdown term of, ‘contained‘.

Using the aforementioned theory, do we really think that UnitedHealth, is an isolated incident?

Instead of presenting an opinion, let’s go to the market itself and see what it’s telling us.

Healthcare Sector XLV, Weekly Close

We’ve just had the largest upside pressure in the history of XLV, back as far as 1999.

After that, it not only stalls, but prints a Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) right along with a terminating wedge.

Note, after the record setting Force Index, further upside pressure has evaporated.

It’s as if the bulls abandoned the market, exhausted.

As Ed Dowd said in a recent interview, link here, these types of record-breaking moves are typically ending moves; not the beginning of a next leg up (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

UnitedHealth … Dead Cat Bounce

November 1, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, AMZN, Artificial Intelligence, Health Care, UNH, XLV

Crash, Retrace, Reversal

With all eyes fixated and hypnotized by the A.I. bubble, behind the scenes, other markets have retraced and reversed.

They look ready to continue the next (major) leg … down.

One of those is UnitedHealth and the Healthcare Sector XLV (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last update on UNH, was back during the earnings implosion.

Two months later, UNH went on to post a (slight) new low, changing the retrace projections.

As is typical for this site, we’re going to look at UNH from a strategic, longer-term perspective, the monthly chart.

UnitedHealth UNH, Monthly

During the last melt-down in ’07 – ’08, UNH lost -75.60%.

For October just ended, we can see (zoom area), UNH retraced to 38.2%, rejected it, closing lower for the month.

Before everyone decides it’s a ‘slam-dunk’ lower, for UNH, in the markets, anything can happen. Amazon’s (AMZN) overnight launch (on earnings) comes to mind.

Next up, we’ll look at the Health Care sector itself and tracking fund XLV.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Struggles to Close Gap

October 31, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Larry Williams

Inching Higher … Almost There

The ‘Commercials’ have left the party.

During this recent interview, long-time trader Larry Williams, says the ‘Commercials’, i.e., those who know their business, have left the party (time stamp: 17:30).

The chart itself, showed record breaking thrust higher followed by a swift down-move.

This week started with GLD, posting a gap lower.

At this point, it’s (still) trying its best to close that gap.

Gold GLD, Weekly

The Fibonacci levels remain on the chart.

Note the 50%, ‘correction’ level, from the last update.

If last week’s high really was a significant reversal, it’s a long way down to 50%.

The fact GLD is struggling to close the gap, provides some confirmation the miners are in the same boat; possibly worse (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners & Elliott Wave

October 30, 2025 By in Elliott Wave, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Prechter, Retail Investor, ZeroHedge 5 Comments

Works Best Under Stress

Elliott Wave and Fibonacci are joined at the hip.

They work best when markets are emotional or under stress.

Historic moves like that of gold and silver, are such times (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ve already seen Fibonacci count(s) operating in the financial sector here and here.

So, let’s look at the miners and see what’s happening.

Senior Miners GDX, Daily Close

Five waves down; the direction of main trend has changed from up, to down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Recall, as long as the wave structure stays ‘in-effect’, the target area for the counter-trend retrace is:

‘The previous 4th-wave of lesser degree’, link here (click on ‘Corrective Waves’ and scroll to ‘Depth of Corrective Waves’).

That area is indicated by the magenta oval.

While the potential corrective wave grinds higher, ‘retail’ moves in to buy the dip, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279