Tag Archives: biotechnology

Economic ‘Implosion’

January 15, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Great Depression 2.0, LABD, LABD-25-01, SPBIO, Uneducated Economist, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Collapsing On Several Fronts

‘Retail’, selling silver, link here.

Jewelry whacked, link here.

Loan Shark, link here.

You know it’s bad when booze takes a hit, link here and here.

Producer prices launch higher, link here.

Lumber prices collapse, again, link here.

Travel restrictions, link here.

Then, there are ‘valuations’, link here.

Also then, there’s this, link here.

Lastly, short squeezes and liquidity traps … bear market behavior, link here.

Speaking of ‘short squeeze’, we had biotech do just that in the pre-market (and regular) session.

Biotech XBI, Daily

If it really is/was a short squeeze, once shorts are covered, the expectation is for price to continue lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Included in the chart, is a bit of insight you’re not likely to find anywhere else.

Note the distance of each retrace after a leg down. Less each time and Fibonacci multiples.

As stated yesterday, XBI posted outside down. That means price action penetrated the lows of the prior session and closed lower.

As wild as it may seem, penetrating the lows and closing lower, put XBI in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

That’s what we saw with today’s action.

As this post is being created (11:45 a.m., EST), XBI action continues to erode to the downside currently trading at the 87.60 – area.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Downside Leader … Biotech

January 14, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IBB, IWM, LABD-25-01, Russell 2000, SPBIO, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Confirming, Right-Side Channel

It’s a recurring theme with biotech.

Over and again, this sector (IBB, XBI) is not participating in tandem with the other major indices.

Today’s pre-market mayhem higher over supposed slower outlays of possible trade tariffs to happen some-time, some-day, caused the major indices to launch upward. 🙂

Well, everybody seemed to be blasting higher except one sector, biotech.

Wyckoff Directed Action

No matter what the ‘narrative’ may be, Wyckoff analysis directs us to look at what the market is actually doing, then interpret the action.

Early after the open, trade TZA-25-01, was exited, +8.9% gain, short position opened in biotech via LABD, Trade: LABD-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

Today posted outside down, taking out both the high and low of the prior session.

Note the trading channel and width, Fibonacci 13-Days.

Also note the two ‘breakaway gaps’. The second one on January 10th, much wider than November 12th, last year.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Down … No End In Sight

December 20, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-24-01 Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Parallel Channels

Moves that take years to develop, once started, can go on much longer than anyone would expect.

Depending on your viewpoint, biotech XBI, has been congesting sideways (in a range) from one-to-three years.

Either way, the current breakdown suggests the potential for a sustained down trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

Remember, Wyckoff said the market itself, will tell us what levels and trendlines are significant.

If the current (right-side) channel is valid, the market itself shows us a similar channel in the past.

Two things to note.

First: Record Volume

As far as known (source, TC2000), November 15th’s volume of 30.3 million, was the largest ever recorded for the XBI:

That’s ‘thirty-point-three’ (thirty-three), you can’t make this stuff up. 🙂

Second: Short Position

There were two attempts to short this market.

Trade: XBI-24-01

Actual, sell-short, closed with -0.40%, loss

Trade: LABD-24-21

Leveraged inverse fund LABD, currently open with +27.31%, profit (as of 9:02 a.m., EST).

Volatility & Leveraged Inverse

The objective is to trade short using LABD, for as long as practical (not advice, not a recommendation).

If the XBI begins to get volatile with wide swings and chop either up or down, slippage-decay on inverse funds becomes prohibitive.

LABD-24-21 may be exited at any time, without notice.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A Tale of Two Markets

December 16, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, Semiconductors, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI Tags: , , , ,

SOXX Powering Higher, XBI Pivoting Lower

To borrow from the Dickens classic:

It was the bullish of times, it was the bearish of times.

Bulls have regained control of the semiconductors (SOXX) for now and negated the ‘false breakout’ analysis link here.

Meanwhile, bears have moved into biotech XBI; currently testing underside resistance and axis line.

Since the active trade (LABD-24-21) is in biotech, we’ll review that market (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Weekly

The weekly shows us the ‘Axis Line’ has been part of XBI price action for at least three years.

Moving on to the daily, more detail.

Biotech XBI, Daily

There was (decisive) downside penetration, November 15th. Then, an attempted recovery that so far, has failed.

The notation ‘Short?’, was the date of this post.

As the semiconductors battle over who’s in control, for biotech, the bears seem to have established a foothold (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Slams Into A Test

December 4, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI Tags: 2 Comments

Is The (short) ‘Risk’ Least?

Price action for biotech XBI, is compressed.

From a bullish side, today (as of 12:10 p.m., EST) is a daily reversal bar.

From a bearish side, we’re at the extreme for an upside test.

Market’s bearish tone: Several weeks ago on November 15th, the sector had its largest down-volume day, ever.

In Wyckoff terms, this has potentially negated the bullish case (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s see what price action in XBI, is saying about itself.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

As of this post, XBI is near the top of its weekly range, narrowing risk on a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll leave it there and let the speculator make his/her decision whether or not action is warranted.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Curtains For Biotech?

November 27, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Holiday Turns, LABD, SPBIO, The Daily Sceptic, The List, The Speck, XBI, XBI-24-01 Tags: , , 1 Comment

Today, Is ‘Day 13’

Strange things happen in the markets just before, during, or just after a holiday week.

This time is no different.

With all that’s gone on in the past few weeks, one gets a sense ‘the jig is up’.

One example of the curtain being pulled back on a well-established grift, is this unrelated, but related post, link here.

So, it could be with biotech.

The past two weeks look like a change of character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

It’s been a Fibonacci 13-Days since the reversal on 11/11.

The sector has accelerated to the downside on record volume and now, is testing that break.

The ‘Axis Line’, is also the location of the 61.8%, retrace for the current down-move and test.

Although there’s been no new daily low to ‘confirm’ the test is complete, (upside) risk may be at a low.

Positioning

For reasons to be covered in a later update, this sector’s being shorted directly as opposed to using leveraged inverse LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade is labeled: XBI-24-01

Stop level for the short is (or will be) the session high, currently at XBI 99.79 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

This Time … It’s Biotech

November 12, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, LABD, MRNA, PFE, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI Tags: ,

Another Reversal

One by one, each sector appears to be topping or reversing.

This time, it’s biotech.

Analysis (and action) over the past year has been on again, off again and now, appears to be back on again.

However, this time we have (as we’ll see below) a near perfect Fibonacci correlation.

Biotech Sector Index SPBIO, Daily

First, the big picture.

The corrective retrace that started way back in late October, of last year.

Next, we’ll get in closer to show the exactness of the Fibonacci levels.

It hardly ever works out this perfectly, but there it is.

Change Horses?

It’s no secret, the focus of trading action on this site since mid-October, has been to short semiconductors, potentially the largest bubble (A.I.) in world history (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, biotech may get its comeuppance as well with information like this, this and this hitting the mainstream.

The decision to take action or not, remains open (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Bulls … Exhausted

October 26, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, David Weis, LABD, LABD-24-18, LABD-24-19, LABD-24-20, SPBIO, XBI Tags: , ,

Downside Leader?

Biotech XBI, spent the last three months hitting resistance, going nowhere.

That doesn’t mean there weren’t trading opportunities; there were but the big (expected) break to the downside never came … that is, until now, maybe. 🙂

Looking at the weekly chart, it’s completely different from the current, topping, on-going A.I. mania.

Biotech reached its all-time high, years ago.

Biotech XBI, Weekly Close

The sector’s been retracing to Fibonacci 38.2%, since late February, this year.

Moving in closer to the daily, the last three (short) trades in the sector are noted (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

For detail on how and why trades were selected, click on the side bar for that trade number.

Note: We have a repeating pattern (between green lines) of ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

The Week Ahead

Anything can happen.

With that said, ‘normal’ market behavior would be a ‘blip’ upward to test resistance, the black line.

However, there’s no requirement to do so.

If price action gets above Friday’s high, obviously it’s time to exit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Set-Up, Part II

October 2, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-19, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-17, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI Tags: , , , ,

Testing Trendline

Biotech never made it to the 99.75-area from the last update.

However, it did post an up-thrust, topping out at 99.65, just 0.10-pts from target.

This is how it is … for the scientific types, good luck with calculating where the market ‘should’ go. 🙂

Evidently, getting within 0.10-points from a 38.2% retrace was ‘good enough’; XBI reversed from there.

Biotech XBI, Daily

If this is a trendline of some importance, we’re still in the very early stages (not advice, not a recommendation).

Anything can happen and XBI, could close higher.

A new daily low was posted early in the session and price action is currently attempting to ‘spring’ off that low.

Positioning

As noted, a short is open (LABD-24-19); it may be a ‘day trade’ if XBI does not close lower for the day (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, based on price action, SOXS-24-17, was closed with a 13.1%, profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279