Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Silver Retrace Target(s)

April 7, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, SILJ 1 Comment

Using The Futures Low

It was a wild ride in overnight trading for most markets; silver was one of them.

The chart below shows what’s missing on the regular session.

A huge swing lower that bottomed out in the first 10-minutes, after the Sunday (futures) open.

There’s no real commentary on the chart; we’re just showing retrace levels.

Silver, SLV, Daily

It’s reasonable to expect, if silver continues to retrace higher, the miners (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) will as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

With today’s session complete, SLV has made it back to the 38.2%, level.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Will It Bounce?

April 6, 2025 By in 1987, CVNA, KMX, Martin Zweig, ZeroHedge

Carvana, In Position

Yesterday, it was CarMax.

Today, it’s Carvana.

Before we get to Carvana, yesterday’s update also said, we’d have no shortage of ‘post-mortems’.

Well, here they are:

“Mr. Market Will Keep Searching (Lower) For A Put Strike” – Goldman Hedge Fund Honcho Warns ‘Trading Environment Remains Exceedingly Fluid’

Why It Should Not Bounce Here Yet

Why It Should Bounce

You can’t make this up. Those two headlines (above) were one after another on ZeroHedge.

That’s probably enough. You get the idea. 🙂

In the case of Carvana, let’s look at what the price action is telling us is the most likely event.

Carvana, CVNA, Daily

After-Hours on April 2nd, trading posted briefly at 243.6, within the purple oval, creating an ‘Up-Thrust’.

Last Friday’s action penetrated support and is holding.

Note the price range of that day’s bar is less than Thursday’s, with volume slightly larger.

For now, CVNA, has stopped dead at support.

There may be follow-through on Monday, but with the (YouTube) crowd and others expecting a ‘crash’, that makes is less likely (not advice, not a recommendation).

When a real expert warns of a crash, it may look something like this (time stamp 6:42).

Note the condescension from the other panel member.

Then came Monday, October 19th, 1987.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Assessing The (market) Damage

April 5, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, DIA, IBB, IWM, IYM, IYR, KMX, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, XLF, XOP 1 Comment

Sifting Through The Rubble

There are sure to be plenty of post-mortems over the weekend; usual suspects giving us their assessment on what’s already happened. 🙂

Sometimes the question, is not ‘what’s happened’, but ‘what has not happened’.

That’s where the opportunity may lie.

Market Implosion

Over the past week, there were wide price bars, with action unstable in all major indices (ETFs): DIA, IBB, IWM, IYM, IYR, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, XLF, and XOP.

However, what did not implode (completely), are the car dealerships; specifically, CarMax and Carvana.

For this update, we’ll look at CarMax.

CarMax, KMX, Weekly Close

On a close basis, KMX, has bounced off the lower wedge boundary and is near the resistance area (magenta line).

Price action could be positively biased in the coming week as a result of ‘tax refund’ car buying (not advice, not a recommendation)

According to ‘Car Questions Answered‘, it’s a yearly ‘thing’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

While The Market Panics

April 4, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. Elder, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, LABD, LABD-25-05, Positions, SILJ, SPBIO, XBI

‘Closing Positions’

We’ll cut straight to the chase.

The biotech short LABD-25-05, has been closed: Profit on the main position is +61.25% (not advice, not a recommendation).

While the market is hysterical, price action in XBI, indicates the current down move is losing (some) energy, hence the reason for the exit.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Exit was made at the lower channel line (demand line) contact.

The market could certainly continue lower from here.

However, from past experience and watching huge profits erode to only mediocre results, the same mistake is not being presented here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Meanwhile, the gold miners don’t look like the safe haven everybody thought they were.

Update on that, later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Markets Implode !

April 3, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GLL, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, LABD, LABD-25-05, Livermore, Positions, Semiconductors, SILJ, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI

Is This It?

Those on this site daily, knew something was about to happen in a big way.

It was just, when.

Now, markets are volatile if not imploding.

Nearly all sectors reversing at once.

As of this post (10:55 a.m., EST), some of those are attempting to recover (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) with others down hard (not advice, not a recommendation).

There were plenty of clues:

Massive volume increase in GLL, strange activity in biotech, then resignation at the FDA, failure of NVDA to get back to a 50% retrace, the list goes on.

As mentioned yesterday, one sector that’s continuing lower is biotech, XBI.

Biotech XBI, Daily

There may be several trading channels in effect. Only the most aggressive (so far) is shown.

Note the locations of short positioning via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post, the initial LABD short, entered on March 25th, is up over +40%.

Going Forward

So, what happens now?

For this trade, Livermore said it best (paraphrasing):

Position on the right side of the market (the correct direction), then wait.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Hits Target … After-Hours

April 2, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, CVNA, LABD, LABD-25-05, Positions, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

That Makes ‘Twice’

That’s two times in a row, Carvana hit a target area (presented on this site) in the after-hours session.

The last time was here, CVNA printed 310, in the after-hours on February 19th.

Then, just hours ago, price action thrust higher into the zone in this post, printed at 243.6, then collapsed.

We never got to ‘Day 34’.

However, the real story may be in biotech XBI, with huge swings in both directions; currently (as of 6:35 p.m., EST) trading below today’s regular session low.

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Craters on FDA News

April 1, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Bloomberg, LABD, LABD-25-05, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge

Someone, Always Knows, Something

One week ago today, was this (emphasis added):

If the trendline is in-effect, meaning the market’s hanging in mid-air in a false breakout, getting back into that trend may result in some dramatic downside action.

Well, we got the dramatic downside.

Biotech XBI, collapsed nearly -11%, and 3X Inverse Fund LABD, is up +38%, and climbing.

As Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘Someone always knows something … and that ‘something’, shows up on the tape.’

It turns out in this case, showing up on the tape, was this, and this.

Biotech XBI, Daily

The chart from the week-ago post, has been updated.

As is typical, the ‘reason’ for last week’s price action comes out later, after the fact.

Positioning

At this point, trade LABD-25-05, is being maintained (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold, Higher … Miners, Not

March 31, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GDXJ-25-01, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions, SILJ

Unresponsive

Sometimes, the question is not ‘what’s happening’, but ‘what’s not happening’.

In today’s case, we have gold (GLD) at new highs and the miners, not.

Not only are they not following gold higher, for the Juniors GDXJ, and the ‘Silvers’ SILJ, they both posted a new weekly low.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

Last Friday was a reversal bar.

Today (so far) we have gold at new all-time highs and the miners lagging (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post (12:54 p.m., EST), GDXJ, has moved up to test Friday’s low.

While price action retraces to test, it’s closing the gap on the amount of risk for a short position.

With that in mind, a direct short of GDXJ, has been opened (GDXJ-25-01) with the stop at (or to be) the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: As a result of the gold hysteria, YouTube grifting, book writing, podcast interviews, dollar collapse, and ‘It’s all coming down’ mania, instant gratification on this position is not expected. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … ‘Minority Report’

March 30, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Greg Hunter, SILJ 1 Comment

Huge Volume In GLL, Inverse Fund

Two opposing sides.

You’ll need to decide for yourself whether this report from yesterday, or this link from Greg Hunter, is the ‘minority report’.

Which one presents an accurate assessment of the market at this point, or are they both right?

A final check of Hunter’s site prior to release of this post, we find yet another interview on gold, link here.

On the first link (above), go to time stamp 12:50, for the gold miners.

For the second link, we have the entire 53-minutes.

With that, let’s look at the short side, what the speculators and professionals are doing.

Leverage Inverse 2X, (GLD), GLL, Daily

GLL, is 2-times the inverse of gold (GLD as proxy).

The update on March 14th, link here, showed a measured move target for GLD (blue arrow).

The chart above speaks for itself. As gold (GLD) moved higher past the measured move, with GLL continuing lower volume has increased dramatically.

Of course, this does not guarantee anything.

What it does tell us, is that someone, or some entities have all-of-a-sudden, started making bearish bets on gold (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … Good, Bad, & Ugly

March 29, 2025 By in Airlines, DIA, Dow 30, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Nasdaq, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SILJ, SOXX, SPY, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Three Amigos

The Good: Only the Senior Miners, GDX, have managed to claw their way past the highs set nearly five years ago in August of 2020.

The Bad: Junior Miners GDXJ, remain below that August ’20, level.

The Ugly: Silver Miners SILJ, are the worst, having their peak a bit later in February of 2021; they remain over -35%, below their highs.

The Market Rolls Over

Yesterday, Friday, was a down day for the Dow, S&P, The Qs, Transports, Airlines, Semis, nearly everyone.

For some of these indices, their all-time highs were posted months, if not years ago.

There may be some (bidding) ‘defensive’ action with gold (GLD) continuing higher; as said in earlier posts, the rest of the monetary metals are far below their highs.

Let’s look at the weakest; the silver miners, as they are likely going to be the ones most affected by an economic decline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver Miners, SILJ, Daily

We’re at an interesting spot.

Friday was a down day that pushed below existing support, shown in zoom area.

We have simultaneous action.

Once resistance was penetrated on March 18th, it could not hold. After eight trading days, on Friday, it posted lower on heavy volume.

However, we can see that SILJ, is now in (a minor) Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. So, the question is, what happens next?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279