Author Archives: thedangerpoint

The Seven-Year ‘Wedge’

December 15, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, Bonds, DHI, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-24-16, SPBIO, TLT, XBI Tags: , , , ,

Massive Top Formation

D.R. Horton, (DHI) is the largest cap in the Residential Construction Sector (www.tc2000.com).

During the last blow-up (2005 – 2008), DHI, declined top-to-bottom over -91%.

Will it be different this time?

One thing that’s likely, the next implosion could be hit with widespread market and broker outages (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last (notable) time was here.

As far as known, feel free to comment to the contrary, this site’s the only one that incorporates outage potential (and reality) into its trading plan.

Case in point is this link.

The firm’s trade records show, on that Monday, the account was short: LABD-24-16.

The broker outage and panic helped the position. The trade was closed on August 8th, with a profit of 11.15%.

Enough said, let’s move on.

D.R. Horton DHI, Monthly

There it is, seven-years in the making.

We’re at the lower wedge boundary now.

Recently, bonds (TLT) had a minor move higher (rates lower), lasting two-weeks.

However, last week, TLT reversed down and eclipsed the previous two-weeks of gains.

Rates are now moving higher … again.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … To ‘Blip’ and Back

December 14, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, Silver Collapse, SLV, Solar Power Tags: , , , ,

A ‘Basic Material’

A ‘blip’ is all there was.

The last update on silver SLV (link here), had this to say:

“The 50% retrace area is shown. It will be interesting to see if SLV, gets that far.”

Well, SLV got that far, just barely, held for three days and then reversed, ending the week down.

While the hyperinflation mania rages on, click-bait by click-bait, the market itself tells us the truth … or the more probable truth.

That truth (below), silver (SLV), is poised for a series of downside reversals (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver SLV, Monthly

One ‘terminating wedge’ within another; upside Force (pressure) is declining and bearish divergent (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver may be considered a basic material like copper (also in decline) with over half of production used for industrial applications.

The COP-OUT

There’s dissent in the ranks.

As economies are stressed or fracture world-wide, the amount of free money available for ‘games’ essentially evaporates.

Case in point is here.

Already shown, the effects of economic decline (silver demand) with solar company bankruptcies, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Broadcom … Explodes !!!

December 13, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, AVGO, Basic Materials, Semiconductors, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

It Does Not Mean, What You Think It Means …

Like something straight out of The Princess Bride, this morning’s Broadcom (AVGO) explosion, probably doesn’t mean what the ‘investing’ public thinks it means (not advice, not a recommendation).

The link above, tells us AVGO, has launched higher on a ‘bold A.I. forecast’.

A Forecast !!! … what maybe could, or might happen in the future, if nothing bad happens along the way, … maybe.

Well, let’s go to the sector itself, the SOXX, and see what the market’s really telling us.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

The bubble trend break discussed here, remains intact.

Any number of notations can be made on this chart.

There’s a downtrend line from the October 15th high (not shown), with today, as the fourth hit on that line.

The low of November 27th, to today, could be classified as ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

The list goes on.

However, the main point, and to leverage on yesterday’s update, is this:

If the building blocks of economic activity (Basic Materials) are in a (potential) long-term reversal, how are any of these so-called A.I. ‘data centers’ and the associated infrastructure going to be built?

Asking for a friend. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Stealth Collapse … Basic Materials

December 12, 2024 By in Basic Materials, DJUSBM, LIN 1 Comment

Look No Further

It’s been a long time since Basic Materials ($DJUSBM) were discussed; we’ll get right to the point.

The building blocks of the economy, basic materials, show a long topping process and reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

One sector ETF, is IYM; its top holding is Linde PLC.

Linde PLC, LIN, Daily

Putting it all, on one chart.

The trading channel, ‘top-to-pivot’, Fibonacci 34-Days.

Downside projections are shown (magenta lines).

At this point, price action is hitting and hesitating at (nearly) each projection lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Breakdown

December 11, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, XBI, ZeroHedge

Is The Channel Confirmed?

While confusion in the rest of the market rages on, Trump-bump, no-bump, consumer optimism never higher, back at the ranch, biotech XBI, is posting some ominous signs (not advice, not a recommendation).

With a backdrop of ‘the jig is up’ for some sectors, it’s possible, biotech is part of that (potential) long term reversal as well.

Biotech XBI, Daily

The work has already been done, showing the potential of a significant reversal, link here.

As stated in previous posts, the corporate account is positioned short; tracked via LABD-24-21, in the side bar above (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Hartford ‘Wedge’

December 10, 2024 By in 2007 - 2008, HIG, Insurance, S&P 500, SPY Tags:

What Happened, Last Time?

The last time we had a major (sustained) economic melt-down, was 2007 – 2008.

The market (S&P) bottomed on March 9th, 2009, posting a low at 666.79.

During that collapse, Hartford Financial was one of the hardest hit.

It imploded, crashed, by -96.87%.

It’s important to note, HIG bottomed at 3.33, during the week-ending, 3/6/09; you can’t make this stuff up. 🙂

So, let’s take a look at what HIG, is doing now and if it’s at risk, yet again (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re looking at the long-term, the Quarterly Chart

Hartford Financial, HIG, Quarterly

With just a few weeks left in the Quarter, HIG is positing a reversal.

From a classical analysis standpoint, a reversal back into the wedge (and then upside test) would be a potential sell-signal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, Skids To A (volatility) Halt

December 9, 2024 By in CVNA 1 Comment

The Last Time This Happened …

It’s right there, in the chart below.

The last time Carvana volatility was this low, measured by Bollinger Band width, was back in late November, early December, of 2021.

That was right before CVNA, began a decline taking it down nearly -99%.

So, here we are.

We have the same (amount of) volatility contraction. Will it be different for Carvana this time?

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

This post is not recommending any trading action of any type.

We’re just presenting the facts. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Short Squeeze ‘Exhaustion’

December 8, 2024 By in Car Questions Answered, KMX, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Anybody Left, To Cover?

Has the market extracted just about all it can from the shorts?

Is the ‘consumer’ giving it the ‘last hurrah?

Are autos, real estate, about to implode?

When, will the plug be pulled?

The problem is, in the markets, when the plug (really) is pulled, it’s too late to get into a low-risk short position.

That work needs to be done ahead of time.

All of which, brings us to CarMax.

Company earnings are coming up in nine trading days, before the open.

CarMax KMX, Weekly

Let’s see if KMX, uses earnings as an ‘excuse’ for launch to 38.2% retrace level (or higher).

If or when that happens, it’s what happens next, that will tell us if there’s an opportunity to go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Copper’s (economic) Warning

December 7, 2024 By in Copper, FCX, ZeroHedge

As Copper Goes …

We’ve all heard the saying:

‘As copper goes, so goes the economy’.

While the financial press attempts to figure out the ‘real economy‘, one barometer of said economy, has already headed lower.

Copper’s initial top, more specifically, Freeport-McMoRan Inc., (FCX), was first covered in this post.

It’s been a struggle ever since.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc., FCX Weekly

The original ‘Up-Thrust’ data point is shown along with a (potential) terminating wedge.

After the top, were several tests higher; all have failed.

Now we’re at the wedge boundary, set for a breakdown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Looks like FCX, is showing us the ‘real economy’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Ends Week, Down

December 6, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, David Weis, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

That’s Not All

Is a long-term, downside reversal in this sector, about to bubble to the surface?

With yesterday’s update, it’s easy to get lost in the hourly and daily maneuvers; see a likely (short-term) potential, while it just distracts from the bigger picture.

That ‘big picture’, is below.

Once again, we have a (potential) repeating set-up: Wyckoff ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

Biotech XBI, Weekly Close

With this week’s volatile action but lower overall close (from last week), the ‘up-thrust test may be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279