Category Archives: AMZN

Tesla’s Electric Short

January 1, 2026 By in AMZN, CRWD, TSLA, XLY, XLY-25-03, ZeroHedge Leave a comment

Ignored, by ‘Mr. Big’

The latest out from ZeroHedge, says that Michael Burry (a.k.a., The Big Short), while claiming Tesla is overvalued (current P/E, 271), does not have a short position.

Adding to the ‘overvaluation’ theme, is deterioration in sales that’s now entering its second year; here and here. Yet, TSLA just made all-time highs this past December 22nd.

In a nutshell, this is the problem with ‘fundamentals’.

Meaning, as far as assessing price action probability, they’re not useful and never have been (not advice, not a recommendation).

A good example of that premise is CrowdStrike (CRWD); with its current P/E, at minus 428. That’s a negative.

When their P/E, is positive, which is not often, we get numbers like 786; yet, the closing price (yesterday) for CRWD was 468.76, with a market cap of 119.4 billion.

How does that even work?

Possibly more entertaining from the ZeroHedge link, are the comments. All kinds of reasons not to short Tesla.

Tesla TSA, Daily

What do you see?

TSLA printed an all-time high on an attempted breakout that has so far, fallen below resistance.

On the sell side, is of course, to short TSLA directly.

Not wanting to be completely exposed to any untoward action, one can short Consumer Discretionary XLY, and effectively short AMZN as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Launches, After-Hours

December 6, 2025 By in AMZN, AMZN-25-01, APP, Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, HOOD, NVDA, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

To be Part of S&P

Now we know the reason for nine-straight higher closes.

Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘Somebody always knows something’

That ‘something‘, then, shows up on the tape.

Inclusion in the S&P notwithstanding, ‘fundamentals’ for Carvana have not changed.

Here’s a recent report on what’s happening behind the scenes. Note: In the comments section, one reply suggests the assessment of CVNA is ‘overblown’, ‘dramatized’.

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it doesn’t matter.

The tape itself will let us know, if or when there’s a change of character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

After-hours high, was 450.00

Just in the past four months, APP, HOOD, and now, CVNA have been included in the S&P.

At this point, we have the following:

APP is being investigated by the SEC.

CVNA, has ‘interesting’ numbers, currently being sued with class-action, questioning the core fundamentals.

Let’s not forget, several years ago, HOOD has its own class action resulting from their platform lockups.

Other ‘Fundamentals’

For those watching, the SOXX is at (or near) all-time highs.

We would expect Nvidia to be the leader (as it has done), but it’s lagging, still below its earnings release peak.

Looking at Amazon, proxy for the ‘consumer’, last year from October lows, to highs in December, Amazon posted a solid +29.3% gain.

This year, it’s completely different.

Amazon posted all-time highs that were quickly reversed.

From the lows of October 17th to Friday’s close AMZN is only up 8.77% and appears to be in a downward channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Amazon ‘Tests’ Reversal

December 4, 2025 By in AMZN, Artificial Intelligence

Potential Channel

It’s possible, ‘All the King’s horses and all the King’s men won’t be able to put Amazon back together again’ (not advice, not a recommendation)

Amazon posted all-time highs on earnings coupled with so-called A.I. (efficiency) gains; labeled as ‘Up-Thrust’.

Then it collapsed, -17% before coming back to test resistance (blue line).

Then, it reversed (down) again.

Note: ‘Test’ was Fibonacci 21 Days, from all-time highs.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Pre-market … AMZN

November 25, 2025 By in AMZN, Dr. David Paul, XLY, XLY-25-01 1 Comment

Taking Out The Stops

As the late Dr. David Paul said, in this interview:

‘Put your entry where the masses place their stops’

We might see that (running the stops) happen in Amazon, during this session.

The last update is here. It surmised there may not be a Santa Claus rally.

Today, we’re at Fibonacci Day 3, from the lows of last Friday, 11/21.

AMZN, looks ready to post a new daily high … right where stops may be located.

Amazon, AMZN, Daily (pre-market)

The trendline mark-ups from the prior update are intact, except the right side trendline (‘supply’ side) has been removed.

The black arrow is where the pre-market (as of 8:19 a.m., EST) is trading.

The area between the magenta and blue dashed lines is what we’re looking for.

This is where the stops may be located (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

No ‘Santa’ for Amazon

November 23, 2025 By in AMZN, Ed Dowd, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XLY, XLY-25-01 3 Comments

This Year, is Different

As is typical for this time of year, the pundits are out talking about the Santa Claus rally.

We’re literally hours away (Sunday futures), from finding out if there’s even a chance of that happening.

One sector that’s not looking too well, is the consumer and proxy, Amazon.

Amazon AMZN, Daily

As can been seen, a wedge is typically a terminating pattern, signaling the end (or near end) of the move.

The important part, while there are small wedge formations, we’re also in a much larger wedge that’s broken to the downside.

Let’s zoom-in, and look at the far-right side.

The earnings blow-off was not only a wedge, but on a longer timeframe, a Wyckoff up-thrust as well.

Here’s the link to the Amazon press release.

There’s plenty of discussion about A.I. saving the day.

Ed Dowd has presented in his interviews, from an overall economic standpoint, the A.I. ‘excuse’ for efficiency improvements, layoffs, is just a ruse to cover the fact, demand is collapsing.

With that said, AMZN has broken the downside of its wedge and has potentially completed a test of that break.

With futures to open soon, we might find out (today) if downside action is to continue (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279


Consumer ‘Bailout’?

November 19, 2025 By in AMZN, KRE

Not Likely

The banks have (probably) decided how they’re getting a bail-out.

One option is with your money, link here.

Maybe that’s why the financial sector, regional banks (KRE) are hesitating to move significantly lower.

They might in the future, but not currently (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, the banks are covered.

Who’s covering the ‘consumer’?

What better indicator of the economy, consumer ‘health’, than consumption bastion, Amazon.

Amazon AMZN, Weekly

Looks straightforward, i.e., bearish (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note the volume ‘climax’, occurred during the week of earnings release, link here.

Amazon’s one (or the) proxy for the consumer. So far, that consumer’s not looking well.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

UnitedHealth … Dead Cat Bounce

November 1, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, AMZN, Artificial Intelligence, Health Care, UNH, XLV

Crash, Retrace, Reversal

With all eyes fixated and hypnotized by the A.I. bubble, behind the scenes, other markets have retraced and reversed.

They look ready to continue the next (major) leg … down.

One of those is UnitedHealth and the Healthcare Sector XLV (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last update on UNH, was back during the earnings implosion.

Two months later, UNH went on to post a (slight) new low, changing the retrace projections.

As is typical for this site, we’re going to look at UNH from a strategic, longer-term perspective, the monthly chart.

UnitedHealth UNH, Monthly

During the last melt-down in ’07 – ’08, UNH lost -75.60%.

For October just ended, we can see (zoom area), UNH retraced to 38.2%, rejected it, closing lower for the month.

Before everyone decides it’s a ‘slam-dunk’ lower, for UNH, in the markets, anything can happen. Amazon’s (AMZN) overnight launch (on earnings) comes to mind.

Next up, we’ll look at the Health Care sector itself and tracking fund XLV.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Narrow ‘Breadth’ … What It Means

April 27, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, AAPL, AMZN, Biotech, LABD, MSFT, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, The Maverick of Wall Street, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Record Extreme

One report covering the historic narrowing of the market is here.

Never before seen narrow breadth: What does it mean?

It means the market’s ‘keeping up appearances’ while the foundation’s been removed.

That way, the professionals can get out the door; sell or sell-short, funnel capital to the only three tickers left (AAPL, AMZN, MSFT), while the public looks at the SPY, and says ‘Where’s the collapse?’

Let the crowd focus on the S&P … probably the most computer controlled, AI driven, Machiavellian manipulated market in the world … but hey, I’ve got my i-phone trading app and I’m going to ‘Put it to the man’.

Meanwhile, downside leader biotech, inches lower.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

Let’s review where we are with SPBIO, with the full understanding that anything can happen.

For now, we’re heading lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s obvious. Biotech’s following a Fibonacci time sequence.

Let’s pull out to the larger weekly chart and see something really scary.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly Close

If we really are at the right side of the trading channel, it’s not looking good for the bulls.

Of course, it all makes sense.

The market’s at record breadth divergence. Banks are collapsing, Ukraine (fabricated, or not) coupled with trade wars, the consumer’s tapped-out (credit at maximum) and on it goes.

Positioning

Early this session, the short position in biotech (via LABD) was increased (not advice, not a recommendation).

The table below shows the trading (entry) activity during the on-going reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Hard Stop: 16.79

The notation ‘LABD-23-05’, indicates this is the fifth trading campaign (or trade series) in LABD for the year.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Another ‘Data Point’, Collapse

January 5, 2023 By in 1907, AMZN, Baltic Dry Index, DRIP, DRIP-23-01, Livermore, Oil, Oil & Gas, Wyckoff, XOP, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Baltic Dry Index

‘The longer the delay, the bigger the break.’

That was Jesse Livermore’s assessment of the market just before The Panic of 1907.

That Was, Then

Back then, it was money spent on The Boer War, tight financial conditions and extreme overvaluations.

Looks more and more, like today

It’s been this site’s opinion for about a year (now supported by data), that we’ve gone straight past recession, into economic collapse and depression.

And Now, This

Another data point confirming the ‘depression’ scenario is this, just out from ZeroHedge: The Baltic Dry Index had its largest one-day collapse on record.

As if to drive it home; demand is in free-fall as Amazon, just announced plans to fire 18,000 workers.

From a strategic standpoint, collapsing shipping demand means collapsing fuel demand.

Which brings us to the sector of the day, Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas Sector XOP, Weekly

The last update, showed the weekly chart has reversed down and stayed down.

XOP is penetrating support, now at The Danger Point®.

The daily chart has more detail; we’re hovering at support, testing the right side trendline (again).

Providing some (minor) upward bias for the day is this report on WTI (West Texas Intermediate).

Oil & Gas Sector XOP, Daily

It’s 1:31 p.m., EST and XOP, has not posted a new daily high (it’s very close).

Doing so, would weaken the downtrend case and point probabilities to a Wyckoff spring move higher.

Summary

Demand is rapidly collapsing on many fronts and the WTI report linked above uses the word ‘tepid’.

That may be completely inaccurate or misleading when considering the demand for shipping has seen its worst down-day, on record.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech’s, ‘Cash Burning Inferno’

November 18, 2022 By in 1929, AMZN, Biotech, Crypto, FTX, Holiday Turns, LABD, LABD-22-10, S&P, S&P 500, Scorpion Capital, SPBIO, SPY, TWST, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

If There’s One, There’s Probably More …

How many biotech ‘outfits’ are at risk of being incinerated during a market implosion?

For activist short-seller, Scorpion Capital, they’ve found at least one and they’re not mincing any words.

They sate: Twist Bioscience (TWST) is ‘cash burning inferno‘ and then go on to say:

Price target for TSWT, is Zero.

Their report supporting that assessment is linked here.

Note: It’s 236-pages, long!

Maybe it’s a one-off.

However, considering the other market implosions in just the past week, probably not.

As is typical for an equity in a long decline, the lawsuits have already started.

Other implosions just in the past seven days, are FTX, and Twitter. Maybe, Amazon (AMZN) will be next.

Analysis, vs. Antics

Seems like every other week or so, we’ve got some kind of Alpha, Beta, Delta, Gamma, extreme du jour, that’s supposed to cause ‘fireworks‘.

Reporting on fireworks, does not help navigate the current (or any future) situation.

What does help, is to clearly and without bias, assess what price action’s telling us.

We’ve already analyzed the biotech sector many times over as (potentially) the index most susceptible for a severe decline if not outright implosion.

That implosion may already be underway (not advice, not a recommendation).

Back To Wyckoff

Wyckoff analysis pointed us to biotech over a year ago.

Now, as is typical, the truth is starting the come out; a trickle at first …

So, for today’s update were going shift gears and follow-up on the prior two posts here and here.

We’ll take another look at the S&P (SPY); specifically, the weekly chart.

S&P 500, Weekly

The weekly is shown with trendlines.

Looking at those lines, is there any other basis for drawing them at the location shown?

The short answer is yes and it’s on the second chart.

The chart below has a Fibonacci time correlation for the trendlines, now, potential trading channel.

We’re currently at Week 34, from the beginning of the (potential) channel.

It may be something, it may be not.

As of this post (10:07 a.m., EST), we don’t know and price action itself, is the final arbiter.

Summary

Because of the supposed ‘fireworks’ scheduled for the day, we may not know if we’re at a pivot point until next week.

That week just so happens, to be a holiday week.

Many times, this site has a presented a proprietary insight; market reversals tend to occur just before, during, or just after a holiday week.

Obviously, the most famous of these was September 3, 1929 (the day after Labor Day weekend), which was the all-time high and reversal, leading to the crash.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279