Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Ever since the inland hurricane, the ‘Derecho’ of August 10th, it’s never been the same for corn.
Now, it’s going vertical.
The entire U.S. agricultural food supply infrastructure is being systematically dismantled. Control the food, control the population. Simple.
It seems the ‘preppers’ tend to focus on stockpiling silver and gold.
If your’re getting ready for what’s coming, from a historical perspective, that’s not the place to start.
Going way back …. thousands of years, during the famine in Egypt of Joseph’s time, we have this:
“And Joseph gathered corn as the sand of the sea, very much, until he left numbering; for it was without number”
“And the famine was over all the face of the Earth: and Joseph opened all the storehouses and sold unto the Egyptians: and the famine waxed sore in the land of Egypt.”
“And all countries came unto Joseph for to buy corn; because that the famine was so sore in all lands.”
Gen 41: Vs. 49, 56, 57, KJV
They paid for the corn first, with gold and silver. Then they paid with their livestock. Then they paid by selling themselves into life-long slavery. We can equate that last part (slavery) as getting the vax.
As corn is going vertical, the bond market is signaling its move as well.
Just now, today, TLT is rotating higher.
Yesterday, Steven Van Metre showed a chart (time stamp 10:00) of the speculators beginning to back off their historic short position.
They’ve figured out they’re trapped. Now, they’re trying to sneak out the door without being completely impaled on a sharp bond spike.
The S&P, Dow, NASDAQ, Russell 2000, all appear to be holding near their highs.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
“The “Christmas Bomb” cut communication lines … which by the way is the very first objective during any battle; cut the enemy’s communications.
Matter of fact; that could be the ‘reason’. A test to see how badly communications were disrupted; how quickly they recovered.“
At time stamp 2:00 in this link, Salty Cracker shows the AT&T outage map; nearly half of the U.S. has been affected.
Next week, the markets could rally on such news. Anything can happen.
However, lack of communication means lack of commerce … for an unknown amount of time.
Downside action would seem more probable.
There’s still one more day before the open on Monday … seems like a long way away.
It’s possible by that time, participants will want the safety of bonds.
Bonds that are already sold-short, the most in history.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
One recent example; the bond move from late 2018, to early 2020.
During the low from October 2018 to November that year, were reports of professionals opening huge long positions.
At the time and as the weeks went by, it appeared that nothing was happening.
The delay would have caused the typical i-phone addicted ‘tweeter’ to lose interest many times over.
When it finally took off, bonds staged a huge directional move that lasted over a year.
Such moves are rare and require the ability to wait. Wait to get in and wait for the move; minimize transactions.
Each market transaction is an opportunity for error. Minimize the transactions and by definition, the errors are minimized as well.
That brings us to oil and more specifically, XOP and DUG.
The nonsense being promulgated by the financial press is that oil is moving higher on ‘hopes’ for an economic recovery.
Maybe injecting the world-wide population with potentially DNA altering technology (not even tested on animals first) for an ailment that does not exist will miraculously launch some kind of pent up consumer demand.
No matter. Oil and its attendants keep moving higher with the dollar moving lower.
Even with anecdotal evidence from an Oklahoma oil field worker (commenting on a Van Metre update) that was later confirmed by the EIA report did not cause oil to move lower … yet.
That is, until today.
The dollar attempted to continue its downtrend yesterday. Oil spiked as did XOP to the upside and DUG to the downside.
This morning is a different story. Dollar proxy, UUP is trading (pre-market) right at its highs of the last session in an apparent reversal.
Oil along with XOP is down, with DUG up.
Looking at XOP, we see it’s hitting a long-established trend line.
With the dollar, bond, and overall market extremes, no recovery in sight and more probable, another (and complete) collapse; this may be the spot (not advice, not a recommendation) to position for medium to long term on the short side.
That’s exactly what the firm has done. Looks like our position was a day too early as we sat through yesterday’ spike lower in DUG.
Volume remained heavy for that DUG session. Weekly volume is looking to be the largest (big-money moving in) since at least 2015.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
In the pre-market (8:52 a.m. EST) action continues to grind higher. Both the Dow and S&P have posted new highs thus negating the Holiday Turns scenario … but not by much.
Important to note is each market continues to post on the underside of a long-term trend-line. The Dow chart (DIA) is farther down this post.
Also added to the chart is the dashed trend-line underneath the recent price action. A wedge is being formed; typically last stop before reversal.
In other markets, looks like Biotech may continue higher but along with the others, action appears labored.
The short position could be stopped out at the open.
This area of price action is where cost of being wrong is least. We’re at The Danger Point.
Update: 9:04 a.m. EST: Both AMGN and MRNA have now posted lower in pre-market.
Stopped out does not mean there’s no opportunity. The bearish MACD divergence is still there.
If IBB continues higher, the original ‘150’ target is back in play.
The market extremes are still there: Bonds and the Dollar are short the most in history. Stretched all around.
It’s not unreasonable to expect several attempts to position short.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Bonds (TLT) were hit hard during the last session. Are higher rates ahead?
The short answer is no … if the test shown in the TLT chart holds.
What we have is typical market action at a significant reversal.
Putting it in perspective, the push below support (blue line) lasted a full three days before reversing higher.
Then we have twelve days of upward recovery until yesterday. Price action was slammed -1.57%.
It might look like we’re headed back to lower bond prices and higher rates; in effect, what we really have is a test of the reversal.
You can almost feel it. A major event is near.
The equity markets at all time highs … extremes of ‘retail’ participation never seen before.
Couple that with the largest-ever short position in the bond market (about to get squeezed).
The dollar’s at the bottom of its trading range … gold already heading lower.
The sense is a major market reversal is very near. It’s probably already happening but just not obvious enough … yet.
We’re not going long the bond market but rather going short other markets.
Most of the short position in DUST was exited during the last session when price action came back to the intra day highs. The potential squeeze got a reprieve at least for the day.
It’s important to note, yesterday’s GDX move went to a near exact Fibonacci retrace of 23.6%. The down-trend could proceed at any time.
Separately, a short was entered in the biotech sector via BIS (not advice, not a recommendation).
Pre-market activity (as of 9:02 a.m. EST) for IBB indicates a lower open with BIS correspondingly higher.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The dollar has reversed and is now testing the lows.
Conversely, when we look at the price action of gold (GLD) its collapse exactly mimics the dollar’s reversal.
Taking into account the futures market activity in gold, it made new daily highs last week during the overnight session, Sunday-to-Monday.
Using that knowledge on GLD, (adding it to price action) it retraced to 38%, of the recent down move this past Friday.
If we’re in a real bona fide reversal of the dollar and gold (posting more confirmation on gold tomorrow), then expectations are for continued gold downside during the coming week.
The dollar, bonds and gold, at this juncture are moving in tandem: Dollar and bonds up, gold (and silver) down.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
In the past three days, bonds (TLT) penetrated support and stopped dead.
Anytime a market penetrates support or resistance and halts, it’s an indication that something’s up.
Either the market‘s absorbing transactions at that level to continue on, or it’s a reversal about to happen.
With all that’s known on the short position by the speculators as well as another Van Metre report, bank lending standards, probabilities point toward bond reversal.
The dollar is already reversing higher. Gold has been viciously slammed lower and the overall market’s hovering at all time highs.
The Dow edged lower at the last session. This session in the pre-market (9:01 a.m., EST) it’s lower again at -1.94 points or -0.66%.
If the Dow (DIA) gets below the 290- area, it’s below resistance and another move higher may be difficult indeed.
We’re short the sector via DXD (not advice, not a recommendation). A new daily low for DIA will allow our position’s stop to be moved to DXD 13.49.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
This site works to present truth as background or ‘macro’ as it were and then look for price action set-ups correlating with truth.
It turns out (as some may have suspected) the ‘inflation’ narrative is a myth. It’s just another lie that’s being perpetrated by the powers that be (TPTB).
According to Jeff Snider and Steven Van Metre, at time stamp 21:30, there’s no way TPTB are going to correct the public’s perception that hyperinflation is right around the corner.
It serves their purpose to have the masses in complete delusion … always setting up on the wrong side of the trade.
Using price action itself, problems with the hyperinflation narrative were presented in this update.
Gold is near all time highs. However, Junior Mining Index, GDXJ, and Senior Mining Index, GDX are far below their previous highs. The junior’s are the weakest and so that’s been the focus.
In a bear market, focus on the weak sectors.
No doubt, there are a lot of well respected traders, analysts, YouTuber’s that are on the bullish side of the market. Here are just some examples, here, here, and here.
So, at this juncture, this firm is taking the opposite side of the trade with its re-established position in JDST.
Hard stop in the market GTC, is at 8.82 (not advice, not a recommendation).
If stopped out, we’ll reassess and determine if another entry is warranted.
Even if the trade proves to be wrong, it’s a low probability that price action will break out of the GLD trading channel shown (below) in just one attempt.
Typically, price action needs to retrace (lower) to gain enough fuel for a breakout.
If the retrace occurs, it will put the JDST position in profit with the miners down accordingly. Doing so gives the ability to analyze the situation with objectivity.
We’re looking for a swing lower to the bottom of the trading range (at a minimum) for GDXJ. Just a few of the empirical and technical conditions that favor such a move are listed:
Price action (GDXJ) finished at the high of its recent trading range and resistance. It thus created a Wyckoff up-thrust, reversal condition.
The GDXJ move over the past week generated a wide, high volume price bar. Such areas tend to be tested (retraced) by the market.
GDXJ finished at a high on a Friday. Monday’s are typically down or a retrace day.
Gold retraced up to its own 50% level and has contacted the right side of a down-trend line. Lower price action in the coming week is expected.
The dollar has its own reversal set-up in progress.
Dollar, UUP price action penetrated minor support (Wyckoff spring, reversal condition) and is close to a major support level.
Dollar up, gold down.
In summary are two charts of GLD and one of GDXJ, below:
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 