Category Archives: Dr. John Campbell

The Moderna Reversal

June 19, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. John Campbell, Elliott Wave, IBB, Livermore, Loeb, MRNA, PFE, Prechter, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

When Price Action Heads South …

Said many times;

‘When price action heads south, bad news comes out.’

That’s a slightly different take on Prechter’s (Elliott Wave) observation.

‘Price action leads the news; not the other way around’.

Going to BigCharts, typing in MRNA, shows they still have no P/E.

So, the ‘bad news’, can’t be they’re not making any money because they’re not doing it, now. 🙂

I wonder, who can it be now?

For a clue to the (potential) answer, we can look at what’s happening to Pfizer, link here and here.

However, let’s not get ourselves wrapped around the axle on events, forecast years ago.

Rather, let’s go straight to the truth, the price action and see what it’s telling us.

Moderna MRNA, Weekly

The entire move from low to highs is shown. Included on the chart, are two Fibonacci indicators.

One is the standard ‘retrace’ indicator; the other, is a ‘projection’ indicator.

The ‘projection’ is based off the ‘a-b-c’ move from the lows of November 2nd, 2023, to the highs on May 24, 2024.

The retrace and projections are hard to see, so the ‘Detail‘, arrow is where we’re headed next on the daily.

Moderna MRNA, Daily

If there ever was a chart to once-and-for-all, refute, dismiss, trash, the whole ‘Fundamentals’ argument, that earnings, interest rates or some other ‘Voodoo economics’, moves prices, this is it:

MRNA, price action hit the 23.6% retrace level (exactly) for two days before moving on to hit the 161.8%, projection (exactly) before reversing.

Note the ‘100%‘ level as well; price action confirmed this area (exactly) three times! Once on the way up and two times on the way down (third time, not shown).

A century ago, Livermore said, ‘It’s all about the numbers’.

Strategy, First

Just as Livermore was primary a strategist, so is this site’s method of analyzing the markets, i.e., Strategy, Tactics, Focus, in that order (not advice, not a recommendation).

The news has been replete with reports like this one and this one.

Another panic ahead?

Sounds like it but at least in the case of Moderna, the chart itself says (effectively):

‘There’s no money in it’.

That means, another wave like we saw several years ago, is not the most likely future event (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

MetLife … ‘Rolls-Over’

May 28, 2024 By in Dr. John Campbell, Ed Dowd, Life Insurance, MET

Will ‘Inflation’ Hit The Actuaries?

Since no-one tells the truth anymore, why not have ‘inflation’ be the excuse for the ‘excess‘ surge in mortality.

A surge that’s likely to result in wholesale changes to the actuaries (not a forecast).

Life insurance, a boring industry; nothing (unexpected) ever happens, until now.

As shown at this link, it’s all about to change.

Previously discussed here, life insurance could be the biggest ‘under the radar’ event for the year (not advice, not a recommendation).

Going back to the link, it had this to say:

“We may find out as early as next session, if MET is in a downtrend or spring position, ready to move higher … “

From that point, MET indeed launched off the spring set-up. Then, it posted an upthrust, a repeating pattern.

MetLife MET, Daily

The spring was generated off of the earnings release that progressed into the up-thrust set-up.

The result was a decisive outside-down bar on May 20th.

Note the dashed grey trendline; currently declining at approximately -70%, annualized.

To Short or Not

Everyone has their own risk tolerance.

From a personal standpoint, I have no plans to short MET directly (not advice, not a recommendation).

Instead, it could be a proxy for ‘unexpected events’ coming to light about a sector which up to now, has been ignored.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Globe Life … ‘Vaporized’

April 11, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. John Campbell, Ed Dowd, GL, LABD, Life Insurance, SPBIO, XBI

Is This, The ‘Go-Forward’ Model?

In just one day, Globe Life closes down – 53.14%, on historic volume, over 35-million shares.

No matter the narrative, it shows just how fast a market can implode.

Years ago, while watching an episode of Wall Street Week, with Louis Rukeyser, one of his guests commented on a corporation that released (unexpectedly) bad earnings.

He said … ‘I believe in the cockroach theory. Where there’s one, there’s more’.

Does anyone think Globe Life is, or will be, an isolated incident? This could even be a ‘Lehman Moment‘ and we just don’t know it (not advice, not a recommendation).

Up-coming (potential) problems with life insurance have already been covered; best described in this brief four-minute clip, link here.

The Biotech Connection

The connection between biotech and life insurance can be correlated with this link and this one.

Biotech, XBI, Daily

The chart below, is slightly different from one’s typically presented on this site.

It’s on the daily timeframe but it’s compressed to better show the sector sub-dividing lower.

Yesterday’s Fibonacci analysis may still apply but we won’t really know until we see tomorrow’s action.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

There Are No ‘Rate Cuts’

March 22, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Appalachia's Homestead, Biotech, Dr. John Campbell, Ed Dowd, Federal Reserve, Greg Hunter, Interest Rates, LABD, Michael Bordenaro, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, Uneducated Economist, Wyckoff, XBI 2 Comments

‘There Is No Spoon’

We’re in the surreal; like The Matrix.

YouTube content creators have noticed the public’s inability, refusal, and denial to recognize (or accept) the truth:

Michael Bordenaro; ‘everybody’s so weak, so sensitive, they can’t handle the facts.’

Patera, Appalachia’s Homestead; discussing her lineage (Cherokee) and history, seeing the similarities of today, applying the lessons; some are more concerned about her hair and makeup.

Then, Uneducated Economist; ‘no amount of wishing is going to bring events back to the way it was. It’s effectively a new construct.’

Interest Rate Ruse

The 40-year bull market in bonds is over; rates are not going lower, they’re going higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Ignoring or refusing to recognize this (highly probable) truth when analyzing markets, is a potential strategic error.

The longer the ruse goes on, the more violent the reaction may be when the masses (finally) ‘awake’.

All of which brings us to biotech, XBI, SPBIO, $SPSIBI.

Biotech Truth

Truth about biotech is brutal; described here, here and here.

Exactly how this will all hit the mainstream in force, is unknown. However, let’s not forget, ‘when price action goes south, bad news comes out’.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Heading south at this point, is biotech XBI.

Market test of the Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) appears complete; previously discussed here, here and here.

As of 1:40 p.m., EST, XBI is trading back into congestion (92 – 96) and looks to have formed a trading channel.

Left channel contact line shown as No. 1, is supported by this post, potential long-term reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279