Category Archives: GDX

Gold Miners, Where Risk is Least

February 19, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-01, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-07, SOXX 2 Comments

Downside Pressure

When price action’s at The Danger Point®, it doesn’t take much to stop-out a trade.

That’s where GDX, GDXJ, are now (not advice, not a recommendation).

The prior update said to watch what happens during a potential upside retrace.

With GDXJ, so far, that retrace is weak; as of this post (1:30 p.m., EST), now printing lower but still above support.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

For a short position (using JDST), we have a tight stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

The bounce off support discussed in the prior update did not go far before reversing lower … where we are now.

One has to realize we’re back to the pundits screaming ‘hyperinflation’ as was the case over four years ago.

Gold (GLD) may indeed move on to higher prices.

However, for whatever reason, the mining sector continues its multi-year non-confirmation (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positions

Short entry on GDXJ via JDST as trade JDST-25-01, with stop at yesterday’s session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately: The short in the SOXX via SOXS, has been closed.

If price action continues to exhibit buoyancy, if NVDA posts a new daily high (this week), it’s possible, as incredible as it may sound, NVDA may go on to new all-time highs (not advice, to a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … Opportunity Awaits

February 17, 2025 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Michael Bordenaro, SLV, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

On The Short Side

It’s been over four years, since this post.

The Junior Miners GDXJ are still below 56.44, the weekly close.

Recall, at the time of ‘what’s wrong’, it was absolute hyperinflation breakout mania (as the links included, attest).

Now, with mass layoffs and terminations, will the ‘stacking’ public, especially the ones in D.C. and Florida begin selling everything that’s not nailed down? What about the rest of us?

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

For long-time visitors to this site, the chart almost needs no explanation (almost).

Last Friday was decisive; outside-down, on increased volume.

We’re right at support (upper blue line). There could be some upside retrace in the coming week (not advice, not a recommendation).

If so, it’s what happens during that retrace that may give us clues as to the next direction.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver & DOGE

February 14, 2025 By in DOGE, DRV, DRV-25-06, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, IYR, Real Estate, SILJ, SLV

Gold-to-Silver Ratio 90:1

It certainly is a big number, link here.

The assumption these days, is silver’s ‘along for the ride’.

What ‘ride’?

Does anybody (thinking) think, silver and its green energy grift will survive a DOGE attack?

Asking for a friend. 🙂

Of course, just moments after the article linked above comes out, silver spikes and then gets mercilessly whacked.

The miners, GDX, GDXJ, SILJ reversed as well.

Silver SLV, Daily

If there’s going to be a continued move higher, then price action must exceed today’s high.

It’s at least a ‘line in the sand’ to prove the bears wrong (not advice, not a recommendation).

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, real estate (IYR) reversed to the downside

Discussion on that, later.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners, Reversal Ready

February 1, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners Tags: , , , ,

Will The Breakout Hold?

As Ronald Reagan used to say:

‘Here we go again’.

The assessment of the mining sector has not changed in over four-years.

That is, it’s not a bull market (not advice, not a recommendation).

There are trading opportunities for sure but a sustained long-term bull market in the sector (GLD, is a different story), has not materialized.

So, here we are again.

Senior miners GDX, just broke above established resistance. Will it hold with GDX, moving higher?

Senior Miners, GDX, Daily

Except for the impulse launch higher in March and April of last year, upward movement has been choppy and overlapping.

This type of action is typically classified as ‘corrective’, moving against the main trend.

Since November, downside action has been ‘impulsive’, and upside action, ‘corrective’, shown as solid arrows, dashed arrows, respectively.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners: The (short) Set-Up

January 4, 2025 By in DUST, DUST-25-01, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions, SILJ Tags: , , , ,

Setting The Tone, For 2025?

The chess game continues.

If it really was as simple as ‘dollar collapse’ and ‘inflation’, why have the miners GDX, GDXJ, and SILJ, been in a bear market since 2011; fourteen years ago?

During that time, we’ve had rallies for sure. However, the fastest (major) moves with 2016, the exception, have been to the downside.

Drilling down a bit on Senior Miners GDX, we’ll look at the 4-Hour chart.

Senior Miners, GDX, 4-Hour

In the past three months, depending on one’s timeframe, there were trading opportunities both up and down.

With that said, we’re now at the far-right edge.

There’s a (potential) set-up: ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust‘ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

As noted in yesterday’s update, right around mid-session, a short was opened: DUST-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, the expectation is for GDX, to decline immediately from here (DUST, higher) at the next session.

Anything else, suggests a trade failure.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver/Gold Miners (crash) Channel

December 18, 2024 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, SILJ Tags: , , , ,

Unfolding Quickly

The past two months have seen the miners, GDX, GDXJ, SILJ, reverse down, hit a low, then upside test and now, reverse down again.

For years, the big picture analysis of this sector has been consistently bearish.

Sure, there we upside opportunities but the (more) dynamic moves were to the downside.

All of which, brings us to now.

Senior Miners GDX, Weekly

A sideways market is a bear market; that’s what we’ve had for over four years (not advice, not a recommendation).

A ‘terminating wedge’ taking a year to form has broken to the downside.

Then, an upward recovery (test), that reversed last week, continuing to the downside this week.

Looking to the left on the chart, we see the ‘repeating’ channel.

This notation shows a down-channel of this type has happened before. The market itself, has set its own precedent.

At this juncture, this week’s right -side channel line is declining at approximately -95%, annualized.

Decide for yourself if that type of trend constitutes a ‘crash’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont … Whacked!

October 24, 2024 By in Catherine Austin Fitts, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Greg Hunter, IWM, NEM, NVDA, SOXX, SPY, TLT Tags: ,

Just The Start?

Has Newmont (NEM) started the reversal?

From a price action standpoint, we have an outside down weekly bar as well as (potential) monthly reversal.

Despite fever-pitch, ‘the world’s ending’ talk on gold and (supposed) silver breakouts, we’re reminded here (time stamp 3:10) to expect a downward spike in gold should there be (serious) international trouble (not advice, not a recommendation).

Newmont’s the largest cap in the GDX; let’s take a look at the sector.

Senior Miners, GDX, Weekly

GDX, in the same vein as IWM, NVDA, SOXX, SPY, and TLT (to name a few), posting its own terminating wedge.

Noted in the chart, GDX has entered back into the wedge formation after a ‘throw-over’; typically, a bearish sign (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Patterns’ … ‘Patterns’

July 30, 2024 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Richie Naso

Notes From A Master

‘Trade the pattern’, is what floor trader Richie Naso tells his students.

Taking that wisdom and applying it to the weekly chart of Junior Miners, GDXJ, what would be the appropriate action?

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly

At this point, GDXJ has posted what looks to be terminating wedge (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tomorrow is the long-awaited Fed announcement.

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Silver ‘Surprise’

July 26, 2024 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, JDST, JDST-24-05, SLV 1 Comment

Confusion Abounds

Looks like the silver wipeout took more than a few by surprise.

However, that’s not the real story.

Some of the comments on various YouTube ‘analysis’ sites are to the effect:

I don’t know what to believe. I don’t know what’s real.

The inference is, that silver ‘should’ have gone higher.

There was supposed to be some kind of massive breakout as we head into hyperinflation, right?

Track Record, vs. ‘Should’

Part of the reason for posts on this site is to establish a track record.

The silver analysis over the past four months is the best recent example.

That assessment never wavered; price action in SLV, is consistent with either an outright reversal, or sideways congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).

It is not consistent with a hyperinflation breakout.

Longtime visitors to this site would have least known that ‘something’s up’ with silver.

Its behavior does not fit the narrative.

Anything Can Happen

As always, the market can reverse and do something unexpected.

Price action could change character.

If so, the objective is to identify that change early, then assess opportunities (if any).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Metals … ‘Whacked!’

July 25, 2024 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-24-05, SLV, UNG, UNG-24-11

Just Shocking

Especially shocking after having been subjected to non-stop delusion (now going on four months), and being ‘certain’ precious metals were headed higher.

Enough already.

Silver (SLV) is currently trading down a whopping -4.7%, in the pre-market session. Gold (GLD) is lower by about -1.2%.

Silver analysis has been consistent; SLV, price action itself, indicates a top and reversal or at best, sideways congestion (not advice, not a recommendation)

If one wants to review, starting back in April, we have:

Silver Top, Top Part II, Top Part III, Top Part IV, Top Part V, Top Part VI, Top Part VII, Top Part VII+, Stalls-Out

Now, this update essentially completes the process.

Silver, SLV, is about to open well below resistance as shown in the ‘Stalls-Out, update.

The Battle Against ‘Tik-Tok’ Brain

Fewer and fewer have a brain … like this (warning, profanity).

This guy sounds very much like the one in the ‘About‘ section. 🙂

Housekeeping: UNG, JDST

As can be inferred, a short trade via JDST, has already been opened: JDST-24-05.

Depending on today’s action, the stop listed is likely to be moved higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nat-Gas (UNG), on the other hand, is not behaving as expected.

The initial position UNG-24-11, was reduced by 80%, as a result of yesterday’s action. It’s likely that position will be closed out completely during this session (if not already).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279