Category Archives: GLD

From Gold … To Crypto

March 20, 2022 By in Bitcoin, Crypto, GDXJ, GLD, JDST, Kyle Bass, Stew Peters, The Speck, Wyckoff 3 Comments

Herding Towards The ‘Beast’

Are assets flowing out of gold, into Crypto?

Time stamp 9:27, at this link, Kyle Bass gives his perspective on why the precious metals (along with equities) have not launched higher.

‘People moved to other assets’

Insanity seems to be the go-forward behavior of what’s happening world-wide and in the markets.

Who knows how long the delusion(s) will last?

All it might take, is one major ‘Carrington Event‘, Coronal Mass Ejection to rip the mask off Crypto; just as this link has done with the truth of ‘The Speck’ protection.

From a predictive programming standpoint, it’s interesting the typical symbol for crypto, the most popular ‘Bitcoin’, is colored gold.

Which brings us to the actual chart of gold (GLD).

Gold (GLD) Weekly

From a Wyckoff, tape-reading approach, we have to trust what the chart is telling us.

That is, gold has reversed.

Earlier posts on gold and the miners have effectively stated, there’s no more ‘fear’ to be had save an outright nuclear detonation.

If that happens, it’s doubtful that anyone will be running to the gold market for protection.

Does everyone have Potassium Iodide tablets? If there’s an ‘event’, they’ll be worth their weight in gold (literally).

The Noose Tightens

Constriction, elimination of the food supply (along with everything else) continues and is accelerating.

Fortunately, or unfortunately depending on perspective, we’re watching a potential major opportunity unfold.

That is, the opportunity to acquire hard precious assets when (nearly) everyone else liquidates.

Gold to Crypto

Is that even possible?

Would gold (and miners) be sold off to buy Crypto?

According to Kyle Bass in the link above, it’s already happening and has been for a while.

From a ‘beast system’ standpoint, it makes perfect sense, going from the pure (i.e., gold) to man-made, corrupt.

Junior Miners, GDXJ

The last post showed GDXJ, at the danger point.

This (juniors) sector seems to be the most sensitive to metals fluctuations. So, we can use it as a leveraged proxy for the overall market.

One has to wonder what kind of ruse will be created to have the masses dump their precious metals ‘stack’ and panic into crypto.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Up … Miners Down

March 19, 2022 By in GDXJ, GLD, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-22-03 2 Comments

It’s Not A ‘Miners’ Bull Market

Gold (GLD) is hovering near all-time highs but the miners, especially the Juniors GDXJ, are far below.

What better way to show the disconnect than looking at the weekly close charts for both gold (GLD), and GDXJ.

GLD & GDXJ, Combined, Weekly Close

The next chart has been discussed in prior updates but is repeated here for refrence.

The difference is GDXJ’s, now in up-thrust (potential reversal) position.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Close

Closer in on the weekly candle chart, we have the following repeating pattern, ‘Spring to Up-Thrust‘:

We’re at the danger point where it won’t take much to see if action is to continue higher or reverse.

The case for reversal is shown on the daily below.

Note the energy of the upward thrusts Force Index, is dissipating (black arrow) while the energy on the downward thrusts is increasing.

GDXJ, Daily with Force Index

Summary:

The Junior Miners are not in a bull market and have not been for years.

They never fully recovered after gold’s decline during the 2012 – 2015, timeframe. In the meantime, they may have posted an ‘a-b-c’ corrective (bearish) price action.

Obviously, there have been upward spasms as has just occurred over the past six-weeks.

Now, it appears we’re at the juncture where action has set probabilities to favor a downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Price Action, Blows-Up

March 16, 2022 By in CAT, GDXJ, GLD, Gold Miners, JDST-22-02, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Trading The Price … Not The Narrative

The narrative and the price don’t agree; at least at this point.

Over and again, we hear it’s ‘dollar destruction’ and ‘hyperinflation’.

Here is a link to one of the latest pontifications on what ‘inflation’ is doing or is going to do.

After watching that, one is so much better informed. Well, at least we know what the bit-players are saying … each reading from their own (pre-approved) script.

Let’s get back to reality and the price action at hand.

We’ll start with this quote from the last update which references shorting the gold miners using JDST (not advice, not a recommendation).

“However, something that can be done is to use that upward bias to position short at the lowest risk possible.”

That’s exactly what was done during this (past) session; let’s start first with the big picture.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly

As a reminder, and for those who may be new, we’re looking for a particular price pattern that has been shown to repeat over time:

Wyckoff: Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Note in the CAT, example in the link above, price-action up-thrusted and then came right back down to support without any kind of an upward test.

Sometimes, it happens that way.

What’s not known of course, is if GDXJ will respond the same way.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

The chart above is a close-up of the action.

The next chart is leveraged inverse fund JDST. It shows the initial entry of what is labeled trade, JDST-22-02 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade entry was just as JDST, price had reached its daily low extreme and was backing off higher (GDXJ, lower); right around 1:14 p.m., EST.

Note the tightness of the stop; just 0.24-points.

Summary

Tomorrow’s action could hit the stop, blow (gap) through the stop or continue upward.

It’s unknown.

What we’ll get for sure, is another data point on what’s really going on with the miners.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold, Way Back To 2009 !

March 14, 2022 By in GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

That’s How Far We Have To Go

All the way back to late November 2009, to find a bar that’s remotely similar to the one just posted last week.

Even then, there are key differences.

The reversal during the week of November 30th, 2009 was after a breakout and run-up of about 20%; from the resistance/support area around GLD, @ 100.

Last week’s bar was within a trading range not outside it. Also, we had to wait until this morning’s open to get a new weekly low.

Volume (blow-off) characteristics were similar:

Week-ending 11/30/09, volume 93% higher than the week before; week-ending 3/11/22, volume 43% higher than the week before.

GLD, Weekly Chart

The chart gives us a feel for just how far back we have to go to find similar price action.

The prior update said at this juncture, longer term momentum indicators are pointing higher. Thus, suggesting there will be some kind of upward test either today or this week (Fed meeting?).

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly

Earlier this month, this post said to expect GDXJ, to up-thrust in the 48 – 50, area.

That’s exactly where we are now.

GDXJ, back then.

GDXJ, now.

There we have it. The repeating pattern of ‘Spring to Up-thrust’

That does not guarantee a downside reversal. It just shows us price action repeats these behaviors; doing so for decades, if not hundreds of years.

What happens now?

Longer term momentum indicators point higher and give the bias to the upside.

However, something that can be done is to use that upward bias to position short at the lowest risk possible (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning via JDST

Junior Miners GDXJ, could come back to test the trendline break shown below starting today, through Wednesday.

If it does, the difference between being correct (about going short) and continued bull side action may be narrowed as much as possible (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that happens, the JDST stop will be very tight.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold’s, Island-Gap Reversal

March 13, 2022 By in Churchill, GLD, Gold & Silver, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

“The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is.”

Winston Churchill

No matter what one may think about Churchill, the truth at this juncture for gold (GLD), is an island gap reversal:

‘There it is’

Longer term momentum indicators, MACD, are pointing higher on both the monthly and weekly.

So, there’s definitely some upward bias.

The ‘Next’ Catalyst

We’ve already had military attack, bombing of a nuclear power plant (so they say) including the actual threat of nuclear detonation … so what’s next?

The (fake) alien invasion?

What if aliens really do invade? My first thought of course will be, “I’m glad I have my stack of gold and silver to get me through. I feel much better.”

No, let’s get real.

We’re all going to wish we had a ‘Ma Deuce’, like this one.

If you’ve got one of those, you can have all the gold and silver you want … plus a few aliens to boot. 🙂

Hyperinflation, Here, Now?

Well, there’s at least one way to tell and that’s by the price action itself.

The daily chart of gold tracking fund GLD below, clearly shows the island gap.

Even with all the upward bias on longer-term momentum (MACD) indicators, if GLD can’t fill that gap, there’s something else at work.

On a closing basis, GLD is still below all-time highs, set back on August 6th, 2020.

With the climactic volume and price spike discussed previously, short term expectations are for some type of (continued) downward retrace.

Then, There’s This

It’s still about four hours to go before the Sunday futures open and anything can happen.

For now, this news headline suggests a lower open for gold.

If gold opens lower, does the market (S&P) open higher or will there be some kind of ‘excuse’ for lower as well?

Lastly, the Fed is (supposedly) shorting S&P, Calls.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Reversal … Wait, What ?

March 11, 2022 By in Food Supply, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, London Metal Exchange, Wyckoff 10 Comments

Um, … Weren’t We Going To The Moon ?

One hour, and fifteen minutes after this post was released, gold and the miners topped-out.

Depending on the close for today, gold futures prices may post a weekly reversal bar.

If it happens, that’s an important nuance.

The prior reversal from all-time highs … back in early August of 2020, did not happen on weekly reversal bar or even a daily bar.

What does that mean or what could it mean?

Unlike last time where gold (GLD), hovered around its all-time highs for a couple of weeks, this time, it looks like it can’t even do that.

We’re at the danger point.

For the gold tracking fund GLD, the price to watch is Monday’s open at 184.45. Closing below that level, indicates trouble for the bulls.

Gold (GLD), Daily Chart

Twelve months of daily price action shows the build-up, to the blow-off.

Below, we have a ‘measured move’ target completed.

Then, we have a volume climax.

Changing of hands from strong to weak.

Such volume spikes typically indicate the potential for a long-term, sustained reversal.

Contrary View

This analysis isn’t contrary just to be contrary.

We’re looking for market truth. Meaning, ‘what’s the market saying about itself?’

Once that truth is found or at least probabilities identified, then it’s incorporated into a strategic plan.

Go-Forward Strategy

At this point, it’s more than obvious, food and the food supply, is literally going to be the choke-point.

As nations world-wide, scramble to secure reliable food sources, anything can happen. They can even resort to selling-off their gold reserves en-masse, to pay for the insane commodity prices.

Don’t think that can happen?

Well, oil futures couldn’t go negative either, right? Nickel couldn’t surge to record highs on the largest single-day jump ever, right?

London Metal Exchange (LME) would never cancel trades and fudge their numbers, right?

What couldn’t happen then, is likely to happen now.

There’s a chance gold will not post a weekly reversal at the end of this session (currently, 12:53 p.m., EST). If so, it holds open the probability for an upward test or series of tests in the coming week.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont’s New Highs

March 8, 2022 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NEM, SLV, The Speck 4 Comments

How Long Will This Last ?

Looking at the charts below, the amount capital being thrown at the last man standing, NEM, is stunning.

A real sustainable precious metals (and stocks) bull market typically starts with the weakest sectors.

They are the ones in the worst financial shape. They are the ones to benefit the most from an increase in metals prices.

That’s not happening.

Instead, we have what looks to be a market thinning out, on a massive scale.

Everything being poured into the leader … Newmont.

The charts below are from Monday’s close. Scroll up and down to get a ‘feel’ for what’s really happening.

It’s a bull market, non-confirmation on a huge scale.

Basically, the rest of the market, the rest of the Senior Miners and Juniors, don’t believe current conditions are sustainable.

How could they be?

Let’s get real and pose even the most basic questions.

How are these operations going to get spare parts or new equipment for their operations? How are they going to feed their employees?

Lastly, what about the ones that have forced their workforce to be injected?

Newmont (NEM), Weekly Close

Senior Miners, GDX, Weekly Close

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Close

The price action alone, tells us capital is flowing out of all sectors and into Newmont (NEM).

Just to make sure the herd continues to herd; that no-one else, is presenting this information, here’s a brief list of recent ‘analysis’.

Me-Too: Gold To The Moon

Will Gold give a Massive Breakout From it’s Sideways Trend ? Lyn Alden Prediction

Gold & Silver Breakout | On Track to Go Higher

GOLD Prices Will Not Stop RISING!! BUY GOLD Before This Happens.. – Chris Vermeulen | Prediction

Gold Breakout: Breakaway Gaps Confirmed

Silver Will Hit $1200/OZ as Russia Invades Ukraine – Lynette Zang | Silver Price Prediction

Gold price rally will power to $2,700, then $7,400 as ‘perfect storm’ brews – Chris Vermeulen

__________________________________________________

A Different View

Momentum indicators are pointing higher for both gold and the miners … that does not mean it’s a buy (not advice, not a recommendation).

For both GDX, and GDXJ, they’re entering up-thrust (potential reversal) territory as discussed in a previous post.

It’s time to monitor the sector for potential exhaustion and change of momentum.

That momentum could take a while to bleed-off … being patient is just one requirement for successful speculation.

Summary

From the panic, you would think no one’s ever seen a down market. On top of that, we’re potentially just getting underway.

This is the exact environment where Wycoff analysis comes to the fore: ‘What’s the market saying about itself?’

That analysis says, gold and the miners could still push a bit higher but there are huge disconnects under the surface; not the least of which, silver’s also not confirming the move.

More on that, later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Dent In The Gold ‘Armor’

March 7, 2022 By in EDZ, EDZ-22-01, EEM, GLD, GOLD, Russia, TSM

Sometimes, It’s Just One Sentence

‘If Russia’s commodity sales decline, it could sell-off some of its gold reserves to pay for war in the Ukraine.’

That, my friends may be the clue, the dent, the chink in the armor.

What if everybody (i.e., other nations) winds up in a similar spot for various reasons … being forced to sell off gold reserves?

It’s early in this session and gold’s attempting to breakout above well-established resistance.

For GLD, the 76.4%, Fibonacci retrace is near 185.50 – 185.60.

Currently GLD, has posted an intraday high of 185.40.

Gold (GLD), Daily Close

Getting closer in on the action (below) we see GLD, at or near 76.4%, retrace, attempting to break through established resistance at the same level.

We’re obviously at the danger point.

It’s time for GLD, to decide on its next move.

Strategy Note

From a strategy standpoint, we can almost feel the pressures. Emerging Markets (EEM) continues to decline with TSM, leading the way.

Obviously, downward pressure.

Then, we have upward pressure on the metals (less so, silver) and the big question is … Is this pressure temporary?

Are all sectors (ex. food/energy) in decline with gold/silver just the last ones to reverse?

Price action itself will let us know.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Drinking The ‘Gold’ Kool-Aid

March 6, 2022 By in Dollar, GLD, Gold & Silver, Jerimiah Babe, Prechter, UUP

Because You Can ‘Eat’ Gold, Right?

A military invasion of Ukraine, nuclear power plant (supposedly) bombed, set on fire, power outages and potential food rationing, yet gold’s still below all-time highs?

Not only that as we’ll see below, the actual price has traced out what’s so far, a counter-trend (a-b-c) move; that is, the main trend is down … not up.

I like gold as much as the next guy but we’re seeing again and again, that’s not the crux of the immediate (world-wide) plan on a go forward basis.

Dollar & Gold: Game Of ‘Chicken’

Like a game of chicken, both the dollar and gold rallying strongly together; waiting to see who’s going to reverse first.

What do you think?

With as much control as certain entities have over both the dollar and gold … who’s likely to turn lower first?

If it’s gold, then at this juncture (below), it’s in a good position for reversal.

Weekly Gold (GLD) Close

The yellow vertical lines above, are of equal length.

GLD could push slightly higher and still maintain the ‘corrective’ a-b-c, structure.

As labeled, price action fits the ‘rule of alternation‘. The structure of the ‘a’ wave is brief and sharp. The structure of the ‘c’ wave is overlapping and longer duration.

The Danger Point:

Gold (GLD) is there now.

Continued upward pressure would change the ‘reversal’ assessment, to potential breakout … much higher prices ahead.

However, as J.B., points out in this latest video (time stamp 9:25) saying, he’s never seen so much traffic on the roads … as if gasoline’s at 99-cents.

One answer could be, this is the herd:

Completely unprepared and running around to find another herd as equally unprepared.

Panic buying of precious metals because everybody else is doing it, could be the reason behind gold’s current juncture.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Gold (GDXJ) Charts

March 2, 2022 By in GDXJ, GLD, JDST 2 Comments

Planning The Next Reversal

Will gold press on to new highs?

We’re at a juncture with gold and the market itself, determines the next trading move.

From the chart of the Junior Miners, GDXJ, below, it shows a now obvious upside reversal from a spring condition.

That is, when price action penetrated weekly lows at the end of January, it set up possibilities for reversal.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly

In what should be a very familiar looking set-up, we can see GDXJ, is heading for a potential up-thrust condition (magenta oval).

As a reminder, this is what the daily gold (GLD) chart looked like back in September last year, before a similar (downside) reversal:

The resistance line is there, the wide (high volume) bar, everything.

Gold To New Highs ?

For the GDXJ set-up to come about, it would make sense that gold would head higher.

As stated, we’re already at the 1:1, measured-move, a-b-c, level.

It’s important to note, that level (GLD, 182.60) has not been breached. Today’s action could have been a test of the highs in anticipation of downside reversal.

However, there’s a Fibonacci projection slightly higher to the GLD 196, area … just above the all time high of 194.45, set way back in mid-August of 2020.

Summary:

At this juncture, all short positions have been closed (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s obvious world (and market) events are moving rapidly; the above analysis could be negated at the very next session.

Even so, it still provides a framework of what to expect should gold continue on to new highs … including the next target location, GLD 196.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279