Crypto Contagion …”Contained”

Where Have We Heard That, Before ?

Is the Genie out of the bottle?

For those who weren’t around for the last melt-down, here’s a brief refresher; links here and here … enjoy.

Of course, the amount of real damage and interconnecting links, are not yet fully known … data is still forthcoming.

However, the backpedaling has already started … ‘Let’s rebuild‘.

How about, ‘Let’s get real.’

As Michael Cowan has said: ‘This is like Lehman, but for Crypto’ … ‘Over $2-Trillion has been destroyed, just like that!’

We’re still in the destruction phase. Any ‘rebuilding’ whatever that means, is probably years down the road.

Those In The Know

Wyckoff said a century ago: ‘Somebody always knows something, and that ‘something’ shows up on the tape’.

This is where understanding price action is critical.

We in the Serfdom, won’t know the details until long after the big players have cashed out or have been bailed out.

Why would it be any different than last time?

However, their moves will show up on the tape. That will provide clues on how or where to take action (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Elephant

All of this is happening on top of there being an elephant.

For those who somehow still don’t know what’s going on, here’s just one report, among many.

Positions: (courtesy only, not advice).

It’s just after the open (9:40 a.m., EST) and both positions listed below, have opened higher.


Entry @ 18.1398: Stop @ 16.83


Entry @ 9.1666: Stop @ 8.79

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

GDX, Down 5-Months, & Counting

Way Back, To 2012

We have to go all the way back nearly ten-years, to find five consecutive down-months.

The bear market in the miners GDX, and GDXJ, is not any news to those accessing (or following) this site over the long-haul.

Nearly two years ago, this report pegged the bear market before it was even a blip in anyone else’s pineal gland. 🙂

That fact’s proven-out by the listing of no fewer than ten links to other analyst’s super-bullish posts on gold and gold miners.

It’s safe to say at that time, everybody else was pointed in one (bullish) direction.

So, what’s happened to GDX (and GDXJ) since that October 25th, 2020, report?

GDX, is down approximately – 38.2%, and GDXJ, has declined – 47.6%.

Not exactly a bull market.

Senior Miners, GDX, Monthly Bar

Looking at the chart, it’s obvious; the prior ‘five-months’, distance traveled, was much less than our current situation.

Add to that, there’s no real support until lower levels. The decline’s free to continue, unabated.


This site’s primary focus is strategy. The longer term, the better.

Including the October 25th, 2020, report on the gold miners, we’re coming up on several other significant two-year anniversaries:

Bitcoin to Replace Gold?

Dollar Reversal; Ready

Corn Goes Vertical

Let’s not forget, ‘The Speck’, as we call it, was identified as a hoax well over two years ago; documented with this post.

The intuitive assessment of only partial data (at best) was, and probably will remain, the most important post of all.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

From Gold … To Crypto

Herding Towards The ‘Beast’

Are assets flowing out of gold, into Crypto?

Time stamp 9:27, at this link, Kyle Bass gives his perspective on why the precious metals (along with equities) have not launched higher.

‘People moved to other assets’

Insanity seems to be the go-forward behavior of what’s happening world-wide and in the markets.

Who knows how long the delusion(s) will last?

All it might take, is one major ‘Carrington Event‘, Coronal Mass Ejection to rip the mask off Crypto; just as this link has done with the truth of ‘The Speck’ protection.

From a predictive programming standpoint, it’s interesting the typical symbol for crypto, the most popular ‘Bitcoin’, is colored gold.

Which brings us to the actual chart of gold (GLD).

Gold (GLD) Weekly

From a Wyckoff, tape-reading approach, we have to trust what the chart is telling us.

That is, gold has reversed.

Earlier posts on gold and the miners have effectively stated, there’s no more ‘fear’ to be had save an outright nuclear detonation.

If that happens, it’s doubtful that anyone will be running to the gold market for protection.

Does everyone have Potassium Iodide tablets? If there’s an ‘event’, they’ll be worth their weight in gold (literally).

The Noose Tightens

Constriction, elimination of the food supply (along with everything else) continues and is accelerating.

Fortunately, or unfortunately depending on perspective, we’re watching a potential major opportunity unfold.

That is, the opportunity to acquire hard precious assets when (nearly) everyone else liquidates.

Gold to Crypto

Is that even possible?

Would gold (and miners) be sold off to buy Crypto?

According to Kyle Bass in the link above, it’s already happening and has been for a while.

From a ‘beast system’ standpoint, it makes perfect sense, going from the pure (i.e., gold) to man-made, corrupt.

Junior Miners, GDXJ

The last post showed GDXJ, at the danger point.

This (juniors) sector seems to be the most sensitive to metals fluctuations. So, we can use it as a leveraged proxy for the overall market.

One has to wonder what kind of ruse will be created to have the masses dump their precious metals ‘stack’ and panic into crypto.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Random Notes

There has been so much research over the past week; there’s no time to format it into a concise report.

Here are the links with a brief summary.

Number 1.

South Africa Cash In Transit (CIT) failed heist blows up internet.

Link to short video, Here.

Longer version, Here.

The oligarchs will use the bravery of the driver and shotgun rider as an excuse for ‘cashless society’. Just wait.

Number 2.

Biotech index SPBIO down for the week in five time-frames:

Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly and Yearly price all posted new lows.

This index is heading down.

Number 3.

There’s no helicopter flying around on Mars.

With atmosphere just 1% of Earth …. give me a break.

From an engineer who worked 24-years in avionics and aircraft flight test and certification, anyone with two photons rubbing together could call out this farce.

Not sure the purpose for the lie … just that it’s a lie.

As a wild engineering guess:

To have such an ‘aircraft’ operate on Mars, the rotor blades would need to be a half-mile long, fifteen feet in width and be weightless themselves; spinning at 600 – 1000 PRM, to be able to lift a 4-lb payload.

Let’s see if anyone has the cajones to do the real math on this one.

Number 4.

Current parallels to The Great Depression can not be refuted.

Benign (25% unemployment) history book accounts are lies.

No surprise there.

One excellent source for what’s likely to happen next; Neil McCoy-Ward and his latest update.

Some comments from the linked livestream posted below:

This is a typical excuse (it’s not 1931) or complaint from those who do not have the neural plasticity to take yesterday’s data and adapt it to the current scenario.

These types of people are not likely to survive

Yes, the medical community (with few exceptions) has been bought.

Good luck facing the judgement. Here’s a link that might get the point home.

Yes indeed, time’s up.

If you’re not awake by now, you’ve had plenty of time … maybe even going back to 1963 or farther still; all wars are bankers wars.

Indeed, gold and silver won’t matter in what’s to come next.


There is no guarantee that I and my firm are playing this chess game of collapse correctly.

However, being focused on Bitcoin or Dogecoin as Jerimiah Babe puts it, is buying into the (beast) system. It’s conditioning those involved to accept a digital currency.

At this point, we’re focused on shorting biotech until price action dictates otherwise. Not advice, not a recommendation.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Closer to The Break

With the kids at the card-table, freaking about ‘plunge protection team‘, rigged markets and Bitcoin, grownups the next table over, are planning their moves.

Friday’s late session rebound higher was not uncommon for a typical short squeeze.

These gyrations are intended to make sure only a select few are aboard when we get the break.

This idea is not new. You’ll find statements to that effect over and over in most any trading book.

The big difference now, is the amazing level of complacency and learned helplessness of the overall population.

Just one example of such before we move on to the charts.

Texas has opened up. Schools are about to go without diapers. Perish the thought.

Yet, there’s still a contingent that’s near hysteria about ‘safety’.

With all the information available, yes one actually has to do real research to find out what’s going on, huge segments of the population adamantly remain (intentionally) ignorant.

Unfortunately, that segment has voluntarily (at least in the U.S.) lined themselves up to be taken out; financially as well as physically.

Just a few of the most recent links, here, here, and here.

At some point, those links are going to become common knowledge.

Hopefully, there will be long lasting and certain retribution for the perpetrators. However, for those who ‘volunteered’, it’s already too late.

Now, on to the markets.

Friday’s real estate rebound (IYR) looked like short-squeeze action.

In response to that and late in the session, short position DRV (3X inverse IYR) was increased at price 9.37 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Volatility is still low in IYR. Short positions can be increased with less risk.

The Big Break

When and if the break comes, it’s likely to be fast; no time to plan.

Whatever plans one has should’ve been laid out well ahead of time.

Two markets being watching closely are Peabody Energy (BTU) and Seabridge Gold (SA).

By now everyone’s aware that a certain far east country is going about its business and building their infrastructure … as if nothing had ever happened. Funny that.

Conversely, the coal market has bottomed out and so has Peabody.

On top of that, the Texas Freeze laid bare the farce that is climate change, global warming and green energy.

Quietly, without fanfare, coal is seeing increased demand.

The blue arrow is a gap in trading that could be filled.

To do that, there might have to be a massive market collapse, pushing BTU back to that level … if only temporarily.

Huge volume in the past six months shows that somebody’s buying.

The next market is Seabridge Gold (SA) which is being watched for essentially the same reasons. If Van Metre is right and we’re in a deflationary impulse, the entire public’s on the wrong side of the trade.

If SA can get itself below 13 – 14, it then enters free-fall territory.

If that happens, as with BTU, it too might be a short lived event.


Currently, the firm’s position (not advice, not a recommendation) is short biotech and real estate via LABD and DRV, respectively.

If BTU and SA get to extreme lows, both of them have potential for a ‘ten-bagger’, the possibility to gain over 1,000%.

Getting to such gains would necessitate a change in the current strategy of trading, to buy and hold.


Pressure seems to be building for some unexpected event that would cause a market break; Possibly the devaluation of the Yuan as discussed by Steven Van Metre.

If that’s going to happen it’s likely to be soon.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Bitcoin to Replace Gold?

That’s according to this episode from the Keiser Report.

Before we address that ‘report’, first this:

The video at this link (until it gets removed) is only 3:37 minutes long … but it explains everything.

It’s a well orchestrated script. 

How else would every single major corporation have exactly the same advertisements? 

Exactly the same; Literally, word-for-word.

So, bitcoin to replace gold? … it’s not even necessary to waste time with an answer. The deeper question is, what’s really going on with gold?

Gold is part of the script as well:

Gold is subdividing lower at this juncture. 

One target level from this update puts it around the $1,300-area.  By that time and if it gets there, the objective is met. 

There will be few-to-none of the original bulls left to buy in … their money gone; used to pay bills, buy food or worse … bitcoin … right in time for a major solar flare to knock out the entire electronic grid.

Listen to the “Report” and how the big names are bandied about.  They have the big bucks … you don’t.  So, listen to them.  They are the elite.

No, they are part of (and always have been) the coordinated effort to subjugate the masses.

It’s just now, there are enough ‘asleep’ with huge numbers of the population flu-shotted, vaccinated, fluoridated, medicated into complete stupidity; or just too afraid of the truth. 

It’s not necessary to hide the message. What are you going to do … “elect” someone to change it? Got that one covered.

If you have read this far … yours is a different story.  Welcome to reality.

One part of that reality is the markets are a wealth-transfer process which is now in overdrive. 

Looking at the daily newsfeeds, it’s obvious (or should be) to the old-timers, the lies and miss-direction have gone to a whole new level.

Wyckoff’s admonition about listening to the news is more true now than a century ago.

Ignoring those news-feeds and focusing on price action, the initial analysis of gold and the miners from late October, was spot on. 

The beginning trade in this series was a short position (via JDST) entered on Friday November 6th, when gold was at intermediate highs.

That short was held over a tense weekend.

Going against hundreds of thousands if not millions (on the other side of the trade) is difficult indeed.

Robert Prechter in his writings has detailed how hard it is to override the limbic (herd) system of the brain and operate separate from the crowd; nearly impossible.

By late Sunday – early Monday, gold futures (GCZ20) had collapsed.

The trade was closed out on November 9th, with a solid 13.22% gain.

Recognizing that JDST had more downward bias error than DUST, the next short position was initiated on the senior index (not advice, not a recommendation).

The GDX chart below (expandable version here) shows it’s following Fibonacci projections lower. 

It would be nice from a profit stand-point for GDX to reach all the way to the 16-area (blue oval).

Even Steven Van Metre has indicated several times in his reports, this area is his target as well.

After all, who is going to listen to some guy whose wife made his “Like” and “Subscribe” flash-cards from cardboard and sticks?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.