Category Archives: Gold & Silver

Bottoms, Tops & Tests

April 10, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, LABD, LABD-25-06, Positions, SPBIO, XBI

Biotech Bottoms, Gold Tops, Miners Test

Bear markets, different rules.

Huge, swift declines, followed by face-ripping, short-covering rallies.

Yesterday was a day just like that.

When price action is moving quickly, one of the dangers is being hypnotized.

Biotech Bottoms

Looking at the biotech data from yesterday, the XBI, posted a bottom of, wait for it, 66.66.

Where have we seen that before?

As the prior update stated, the LABD-25-06, trade was exited in the pre-market yesterday. XBI was at support and that was the reason for exit.

At the time it was unknown, later in the session, we’d get (potentially) the largest short-covering rally in history.

Currently (as of 8:03 a.m., EST), XBI, is trading slightly lower.

Depending on the regular session action, the short trade (via LABD) may be re-opened (not advice, not a recommendation).

Gold Tops

For gold (GLD), large volume, wide price swings can be signs of trouble.

Yesterday was huge volume and price bar, resulting in a ‘Force Index’ reading of ‘257.8’-mil.

That does not necessarily mean anything until it’s put into context.

That last time there was a similar high-energy move was March 8th, 2022; a ‘Force’ reading of 243.1-mil, that put in a top, not exceeded for nearly 2-years.

Miners Test

Then, the miners, GDX, GDXJ.

For this update we’ll look at the Juniors, GDXJ.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

There was a breakdown (with gap) from the wedge. That breakdown has been tested.

Along with the test potentially complete, the price gap from last Friday’s action (4/4/25) has essentially been closed.

Positioning

Short the GDXJ, via JDST as Trade JDST-25-07; the stop is (equivalent to) a few ticks above yesterday’s (56.18) GDXJ high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Retrace Target(s)

April 7, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, SILJ 1 Comment

Using The Futures Low

It was a wild ride in overnight trading for most markets; silver was one of them.

The chart below shows what’s missing on the regular session.

A huge swing lower that bottomed out in the first 10-minutes, after the Sunday (futures) open.

There’s no real commentary on the chart; we’re just showing retrace levels.

Silver, SLV, Daily

It’s reasonable to expect, if silver continues to retrace higher, the miners (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) will as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

With today’s session complete, SLV has made it back to the 38.2%, level.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

While The Market Panics

April 4, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. Elder, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, LABD, LABD-25-05, Positions, SILJ, SPBIO, XBI

‘Closing Positions’

We’ll cut straight to the chase.

The biotech short LABD-25-05, has been closed: Profit on the main position is +61.25% (not advice, not a recommendation).

While the market is hysterical, price action in XBI, indicates the current down move is losing (some) energy, hence the reason for the exit.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Exit was made at the lower channel line (demand line) contact.

The market could certainly continue lower from here.

However, from past experience and watching huge profits erode to only mediocre results, the same mistake is not being presented here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Meanwhile, the gold miners don’t look like the safe haven everybody thought they were.

Update on that, later.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Markets Implode !

April 3, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GLL, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, LABD, LABD-25-05, Livermore, Positions, Semiconductors, SILJ, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI

Is This It?

Those on this site daily, knew something was about to happen in a big way.

It was just, when.

Now, markets are volatile if not imploding.

Nearly all sectors reversing at once.

As of this post (10:55 a.m., EST), some of those are attempting to recover (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) with others down hard (not advice, not a recommendation).

There were plenty of clues:

Massive volume increase in GLL, strange activity in biotech, then resignation at the FDA, failure of NVDA to get back to a 50% retrace, the list goes on.

As mentioned yesterday, one sector that’s continuing lower is biotech, XBI.

Biotech XBI, Daily

There may be several trading channels in effect. Only the most aggressive (so far) is shown.

Note the locations of short positioning via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post, the initial LABD short, entered on March 25th, is up over +40%.

Going Forward

So, what happens now?

For this trade, Livermore said it best (paraphrasing):

Position on the right side of the market (the correct direction), then wait.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold, Higher … Miners, Not

March 31, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GDXJ-25-01, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions, SILJ

Unresponsive

Sometimes, the question is not ‘what’s happening’, but ‘what’s not happening’.

In today’s case, we have gold (GLD) at new highs and the miners, not.

Not only are they not following gold higher, for the Juniors GDXJ, and the ‘Silvers’ SILJ, they both posted a new weekly low.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

Last Friday was a reversal bar.

Today (so far) we have gold at new all-time highs and the miners lagging (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post (12:54 p.m., EST), GDXJ, has moved up to test Friday’s low.

While price action retraces to test, it’s closing the gap on the amount of risk for a short position.

With that in mind, a direct short of GDXJ, has been opened (GDXJ-25-01) with the stop at (or to be) the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: As a result of the gold hysteria, YouTube grifting, book writing, podcast interviews, dollar collapse, and ‘It’s all coming down’ mania, instant gratification on this position is not expected. 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … ‘Minority Report’

March 30, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Greg Hunter, SILJ 1 Comment

Huge Volume In GLL, Inverse Fund

Two opposing sides.

You’ll need to decide for yourself whether this report from yesterday, or this link from Greg Hunter, is the ‘minority report’.

Which one presents an accurate assessment of the market at this point, or are they both right?

A final check of Hunter’s site prior to release of this post, we find yet another interview on gold, link here.

On the first link (above), go to time stamp 12:50, for the gold miners.

For the second link, we have the entire 53-minutes.

With that, let’s look at the short side, what the speculators and professionals are doing.

Leverage Inverse 2X, (GLD), GLL, Daily

GLL, is 2-times the inverse of gold (GLD as proxy).

The update on March 14th, link here, showed a measured move target for GLD (blue arrow).

The chart above speaks for itself. As gold (GLD) moved higher past the measured move, with GLL continuing lower volume has increased dramatically.

Of course, this does not guarantee anything.

What it does tell us, is that someone, or some entities have all-of-a-sudden, started making bearish bets on gold (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … Good, Bad, & Ugly

March 29, 2025 By in Airlines, DIA, Dow 30, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Nasdaq, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SILJ, SOXX, SPY, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Three Amigos

The Good: Only the Senior Miners, GDX, have managed to claw their way past the highs set nearly five years ago in August of 2020.

The Bad: Junior Miners GDXJ, remain below that August ’20, level.

The Ugly: Silver Miners SILJ, are the worst, having their peak a bit later in February of 2021; they remain over -35%, below their highs.

The Market Rolls Over

Yesterday, Friday, was a down day for the Dow, S&P, The Qs, Transports, Airlines, Semis, nearly everyone.

For some of these indices, their all-time highs were posted months, if not years ago.

There may be some (bidding) ‘defensive’ action with gold (GLD) continuing higher; as said in earlier posts, the rest of the monetary metals are far below their highs.

Let’s look at the weakest; the silver miners, as they are likely going to be the ones most affected by an economic decline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver Miners, SILJ, Daily

We’re at an interesting spot.

Friday was a down day that pushed below existing support, shown in zoom area.

We have simultaneous action.

Once resistance was penetrated on March 18th, it could not hold. After eight trading days, on Friday, it posted lower on heavy volume.

However, we can see that SILJ, is now in (a minor) Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. So, the question is, what happens next?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Sell The News?

March 16, 2025 By in David Weis, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-05, Positions, SILJ, SLV, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Hours Away

We’re just hours away from the Sunday futures open.

Yesterday, military attacks on Houthi rebels have commenced; links here, here, and here.

Middle East conflict escalates.

The question is, will the markets see it that way?

Will it be ‘escalation’, with gold futures ever higher, or is it ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’?

If we’re looking at potential gold/silver related downside, then let’s review the miners; they’ve been in a bear market for nearly five years (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly Close

Before getting to the right side of the chart, let’s start with the ‘Time’s Up’, arrow; a reversal and decline over 50%.

That ‘arrow’ corresponds to this post.

At this point, gold and the miners appear to be stretched with silver currently in non-confirmation.

If it was really (simple) inflation, it would be like the 1980s, with both moving in tandem.

Then & Now

With that, what has GDXJ, done in the past?

The chart itself shows us it tends to exhibit a repeating pattern of Wyckoff ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

We may know within hours if gold, silver, and the miners, are going to reverse or launch into some kind of extended rally (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Meets Target Move

March 14, 2025 By in GLD, Gold & Silver

Breakout From Wedge

The weekly chart of gold (GLD) shows it has met a wedge breakout target.

The bottom end of the wedge is taken from the march 2020, panic lows, upward to the Sep – Nov 2022, lows.

What’s not shown, taking that trendline farther back in time, also intersects a congestion area from June – August 2019, thus providing additional validity.

Meeting a target does not mean reversal.

However, it does mean, speculators that were positioned long are likely taking profits or cashing out entirely; all the while, the media is ‘raising targets’ on its gold forecasts (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … Breakout or Blowoff

March 13, 2025 By in GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-05, Positions

We Might Know Soon

The last update thought we’d have a gap-higher open in the miners GDXJ.

Well, we got more than that 🙂

The chart at this link shows the action for the corresponding gold contract.

Commodity bull moves typically end with a blow-off spike higher. Is that what we got today? (not advice, not a recommendation).

Full article is here.

With that let’s look at the miners.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

Price action formed a ‘spring’ towards the end of last year.

Whether or not we have repeating pattern, ‘up-thrust’, is unknown.

It’s important to note, gold is now over (approx.) $1,100/oz., above the level it was when this post was released.

Even with today’s action, the Junior Miners are still (well) below the price level for GDXJ, shown in that update, four years ago.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279