Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
First, it was this (RFK Jr., nominated, then confirmed), then it was this, and now, the latest is this.
While the financial press toys with the idea ‘the worst is over‘, (which might be true), with biotech, price action itself says it may be preparing for its next leg … lower.
Biotech XBI, Hourly
We’re drilling down to the hourly; it shows (as of 12:24 p.m., EST) a Fibonacci a-b-c, corrective retrace.
Wave ‘a’, was the massive short squeeze.
Wave ‘b’ was a test of the lows; then on to wave ‘c’, the same (net) distance as wave ‘a’, making it a 1:1 (potentially complete) corrective move.
Also note the ‘alternation’.
Wave ‘a’, was essentially straight up. Then, wave ‘c’ alternates and is a labored slow process, ratcheting higher.
We’re at The Danger Point®, where the risk of a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).
Currently short, Trade: LABD-25-08, with stop at the LABD, session low (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Bear markets are not (always) prices going straight down, a la 1987.
Bear markets are ‘price destruction’; a series of ups and downs that effectively drain (whipsaw) the typical market account.
The last two weeks have seen record breaking extremes; the latest being this update, indicating the market posted the largest volume ever recorded.
Dodging Bullets
A case in point, this site’s narrow miss on having a huge gain (LABD-25-06, short biotech) being completely obliterated in last week’s largest short squeeze, ever.
It’s (almost) a ‘no-brainer’, this type of market behavior is not bullish (not advice, not a recommendation).
Then, The Propaganda
If it’s not dodging bullets, it’s sifting through the propaganda, half-truths, and outright lies.
The latest of these, (could be) ‘China dumping dollars’ and other ‘collapse’ narratives.
There’s volatility for sure. That’s what bear markets are about. However, this link might help mitigate the hysteria around the ‘It’s all blowing up’ narrative (not advice, not a recommendation).
In the above link, how it really works, time stamp: 17:58
So, here we are. What’s next?
Gold & Silver, Update
Even though both gold (GLD), and silver (SLV), are trading lower as of this post (12:52 p.m., EST), the Junior Miners GDXJ, posted a new daily high, thus, short JDST-25-09, was exited (not advice, not a recommendation).
Today’s activity does point to a new potential (developing) set-up, this time, silver miners SILJ.
Silver Miners SILJ, Daily
The set-up (spring-to-up-thrust) may develop from here, or it could diffuse into chaos.
It remains a possibility, until price action itself says, ‘no’.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As the prior update stated, the LABD-25-06, trade was exited in the pre-market yesterday. XBI was at support and that was the reason for exit.
At the time it was unknown, later in the session, we’d get (potentially) the largest short-covering rally in history.
Currently (as of 8:03 a.m., EST), XBI, is trading slightly lower.
Depending on the regular session action, the short trade (via LABD) may be re-opened (not advice, not a recommendation).
Gold Tops
For gold (GLD), large volume, wide price swings can be signs of trouble.
Yesterday was huge volume and price bar, resulting in a ‘Force Index’ reading of ‘257.8’-mil.
That does not necessarily mean anything until it’s put into context.
That last time there was a similar high-energy move was March 8th, 2022; a ‘Force’ reading of 243.1-mil, that put in a top, not exceeded for nearly 2-years.
Miners Test
Then, the miners, GDX, GDXJ.
For this update we’ll look at the Juniors, GDXJ.
Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily
There was a breakdown (with gap) from the wedge. That breakdown has been tested.
Along with the test potentially complete, the price gap from last Friday’s action (4/4/25) has essentially been closed.
Positioning
Short the GDXJ, via JDST as Trade JDST-25-07; the stop is (equivalent to) a few ticks above yesterday’s (56.18) GDXJ high (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As biotech XBI, nears support levels (charts forthcoming), all short trades have been closed in the pre-market session (not advice, not a recommendation).
Trade LABD-25-06, was closed just after 7:00 a.m., EST with a profit slightly above +27%.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Early yesterday, biotech XBI, got stretched into an apparent squeeze.
That squeeze printed a high at 75.86, which as of this post (10:43 a.m., EST) is holding.
The chart shows what’s technically called ‘inside action’ or an ‘inside bar’. Today’s trading is taking place within the range of yesterday’s bar.
Biotech XBI, 4-Hour
There’s a lot going on.
The expectation was for this morning’s open to post above yesterday’s high; it didn’t happen.
As of this release, price action remains tight, not pushing significantly higher or lower.
Tight action typically precedes a directional move.
Positioning
With the above conditions in play, a short has been re-established (LABD-25-06) with a very tight stop … one, or two ticks, above yesterday’s XBI, high. (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The biotech short LABD-25-05, has been closed: Profit on the main position is +61.25% (not advice, not a recommendation).
While the market is hysterical, price action in XBI, indicates the current down move is losing (some) energy, hence the reason for the exit.
Biotech XBI, Daily
Exit was made at the lower channel line (demand line) contact.
The market could certainly continue lower from here.
However, from past experience and watching huge profits erode to only mediocre results, the same mistake is not being presented here (not advice, not a recommendation).
Meanwhile, the gold miners don’t look like the safe haven everybody thought they were.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Those on this site daily, knew something was about to happen in a big way.
It was just, when.
Now, markets are volatile if not imploding.
Nearly all sectors reversing at once.
As of this post (10:55 a.m., EST), some of those are attempting to recover (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) with others down hard (not advice, not a recommendation).
There were plenty of clues:
Massive volume increase in GLL, strange activity in biotech, then resignation at the FDA, failure of NVDA to get back to a 50% retrace, the list goes on.
As mentioned yesterday, one sector that’s continuing lower is biotech, XBI.
Biotech XBI, Daily
There may be several trading channels in effect. Only the most aggressive (so far) is shown.
Note the locations of short positioning via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).
As of this post, the initial LABD short, entered on March 25th, is up over +40%.
Going Forward
So, what happens now?
For this trade, Livermore said it best (paraphrasing):
Position on the right side of the market (the correct direction), then wait.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
That’s two times in a row, Carvana hit a target area (presented on this site) in the after-hours session.
The last time was here, CVNA printed 310, in the after-hours on February 19th.
Then, just hours ago, price action thrust higher into the zone in this post, printed at 243.6, then collapsed.
We never got to ‘Day 34’.
However, the real story may be in biotech XBI, with huge swings in both directions; currently (as of 6:35 p.m., EST) trading below today’s regular session low.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If the trendline is in-effect, meaning the market’s hanging in mid-air in a false breakout, getting back into that trend may result in some dramatic downside action.
Well, we got the dramatic downside.
Biotech XBI, collapsed nearly -11%, and 3X Inverse Fund LABD, is up +38%, and climbing.
As Wyckoff said a century ago:
‘Someone always knows something … and that ‘something’, shows up on the tape.’
It turns out in this case, showing up on the tape, was this, and this.
Biotech XBI, Daily
The chart from the week-ago post, has been updated.
As is typical, the ‘reason’ for last week’s price action comes out later, after the fact.
Positioning
At this point, trade LABD-25-05, is being maintained (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 