Category Archives: LABD

Moderna ‘Message’, Part II

June 26, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-13, MRNA, SPBIO, XBI

What A Difference, A Day Makes

Well, there you have it.

The potential upside from yesterday’s post has been negated … that quickly.

MRNA, has reversed and punched through support levels (as of 10:00 a.m., EST) and did it decisively.

That puts the biotech short back on the table (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Moderna ‘Message’

June 25, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-12, MRNA, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

What’s Price Action Telling Us?

Is Moderna telling us to get ready for another round of ‘shenanigans’?

The last update showed how action was adhering nearly perfectly to Fibonacci levels.

The take-away; MRNA, most likely is headed lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Well, that was then.

We’re going back to the daily chart, looking at potential for higher action.

Moderna MRNA, Daily

As with the prior update, two Fibonacci projection tools are shown; standard retrace, and ‘a-b-c’ projection from November 2nd, 2023, lows.

We can see, price action’s at The Danger Point®, in ‘spring’ position, ready to move higher.

Is this buoyancy and absorption of the sellers?

As Weis said (in his video), absorption is difficult to detect until it’s obvious.

If we’re headed to new highs, past the 23.6%, retrace, there’d have to be a ‘reason’ or (money making) ‘catalyst’ for such an event.

Something like this, perhaps?

If MRNA is gearing for a move higher, that explains buoyancy in the biotech sector as a whole, the refusal of XBI, to head decisively lower.

As stated earlier, XBI short position via LABD, noted as LABD-24-12, in prior updates has been closed (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Split Top … Part II

June 21, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-12, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-09, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI 2 Comments

Reversal On ‘Week 89’ ?

The tape is saying ‘This could be it’.

No one knows if this is ‘The top’, or just ‘A top’, until it’s all over (not advice, not a recommendation).

This update for Nvidia, said we’re nearing Fibonacci Week 89 (from the October ’22, lows); look for evidence of a reversal.

With three-hours left in the session, NVDA is on track (along with the SOXX) to posting a weekly reversal bar.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

The chart updated to show we’re at ‘Week 89’.

The fact (minus 3-hours) we’re getting a reversal bar on ‘Week 89’, is potential validation of the Fibonacci count.

The market itself is telling us where to look.

With the prior update letting us know the air is going out of support for continued A.I., today’s action may be a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Update: 2:07 p.m., EST

Housekeeping Note:

While under no obligation to discuss trades, nonetheless, for those following the biotech short (LABD-24-12), that trade has been exited (for now) with profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Adverse Moves’ … Action Plan

June 12, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-24-12, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, Uneducated Economist

What To Do When ‘Whacked’

The day started out with a bang; market’s up sharply on CPI print.

One could think, months of biotech (short) analysis, has been blown apart with this morning’s sharp move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Remember, this update said watch out for ‘French’ guys:

“However, just like the video snippet in the link above, what looks to be a dramatic conclusion to weeks if not months of work, could be completely derailed by a bunch of ‘French’ guys hanging out in a British castle.” 

Well, here they are. 🙂

From a trading, positioning perspective, is it really that bad, what’s going on?

For that answer, we’re going straight to the hourly chart of 3X Inverse Leveraged Fund LABD.

Biotech 3X Leveraged Inverse LABD, Hourly

Early morning price action penetrated the stop level given in this update.

However, as can be seen, price action behavior of LABD was different than (inverse fund) SOXS, under similar conditions; it did not keep going lower but stopped dead.

It’s clear, action at this point, is pulling away from the lows.

Rate Cuts Not

Way back in January of 2023, this site proposed the ‘rate cut’ discussion was nothing more than a ruse; keeping everybody (the press, especially) busy acting like Pavlov’s Dogs, while the big rug-pull was being set-up.

With that in mind, here’s the real story of what’s going on (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

In a little bit of a market ‘cheat’, LABD is currently trading above the prior stop level.

At the risk of making a gross trading error, the short position in biotech (via LABD) is being maintained (not advice, definitely not a recommendation).

However, even as this post is being created (3:15 p.m., EST), biotech XBI continues to erode back into the trading range with LABD, continuing to rise.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … ‘Back-n-Test’

June 10, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, David Weis, LABD, LABD-24-12, Prechter, SPBIO, XBI

Watch The Volume

‘If, on the next pull-back, volume contracts, the spring has been tested …’; David Weis

On the chart, that’s what we have.

Today also looks to be an apparent 50%, retrace on Fibonacci Day 3, from the June 6th, reversal.

Taking it all together, the next session(s) could be very interesting.

Biotech XBI, Daily (inverted)

Is it textbook?

We have a spring set-up penetration (resistance non-inverted), a swift move upward and now, a test back to 50% (level not shown), on contracting volume.

If the test is complete, the obvious expectation is for a higher open (lower non-inverted) at the next session (not advice, not a recommendation)

Rule of Alternation

Using this update and the discussion of ‘alternation’, we can already see price action is more volatile and so far, has ‘simple’ form.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Case For ‘Swift’ Downside: XBI

June 6, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-12, Monty Python, Prechter, SPBIO, XBI 3 Comments

Rule Of Alternation

The last update presented a multi-timeframe analysis; medium to long-term (potential) bearish set-up in biotech, XBI.

This morning’s action appears to be confirming the up-thrust potential.

Now, we’ll get into why this move may happen quickly.

Multiple Timeframes

If the premise is correct, that we’ve gone through a month-long test of the weekly (timeframe) up-thrust, testing may now be complete.

Naturally, the power behind a weekly move, has more substantial effect than daily.

Next, the topic at hand; Prechter’s ‘Rule of alternation’.

Biotech XBI, Daily

The first chart shows detail on the last up-thrust.

Price action penetrated resistance, then posted five-days of congestion before breaking lower.

We’re labeling that congestion action as ‘complex’.

Next, we have the current situation. An apparent up-thrust in its initial stages.

If what we have now, is indeed an up-thrust, taking all the prior considerations into account, it’s reasonable to expect the subsequent move will be less complex, having different form, and move more quickly (not advice, not a recommendation).

In any case, we have a ‘hard stop’ for a short position, at the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Our Quest, Is At An End

Like something out of Monty Python, the entire analysis of downside potential feels like the quest is at an end.

However, just like the video snippet in the link above, what looks to be a dramatic conclusion to weeks if not months of work, could be completely derailed by a bunch of ‘French’ guys hanging out in a British castle 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

After The Close

June 5, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-12, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI 2 Comments

Biotech In Review

In this update, we’ll review the entire biotech (bearish) XBI, set-up.

First: Going way-back to March 10th, this year was this post.

There was potential for a long-term downside reversal in biotech, XBI.

Subsequent price action proved the analysis to be correct; biotech declined significantly, down over 18%, before recovering.

Second: The weekly timeframe Up-Thrust was properly identified as (in Wyckoff terms) there was ‘Sign-of-Supply’, with price action in decline.

Third: If, and it’s a big if, we’re in a long-term reversal, we’ve had the initial Sign-of-Supply that’s been followed by an apparent test.

That’s where we are now, as shown in the weekly chart.

Biotech XBI Weekly (inverted)

The chart is inverted so Sign-of-Supply becomes Sign-of-Demand.

Note the MACD is very close to a crossover.

Doing so, would put a serious dent in the ‘Spring, Demand and Test’ assessment.

Now, on to the Daily

Fourth: Buried within the weekly action, ‘Demand and Test’ (inverted chart) is the Daily, with its own set-up.

Biotech XBI, Daily (inverted).

With the weekly in a potential ‘test’, the daily has formed a spring set-up.

Potential for a bullish divergence, noted in the prior update.

Now, it’s here.

Obviously, the expectation is for price action to rise on the inverted chart(s); Downside for the actual XBI.

Fifth: Depending on what happens next, if we do get a reversal to the upside, inverted charts, there’s a potential for that action to be swift.

If and when that happens, we’ll cover it in another update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Hits Target

June 5, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-12, SOXX, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, XBI

Meanwhile, On The Other Side …

While the SOXX fights it out between bulls and bears, biotech XBI, has quietly penetrated resistance … and stopped.

Price action’s currently hovering above resistance in a narrow range.

The prior update showed the likely outcome for a spring-to-up-thrust target.

It’s arguable that we’re here now (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI Daily

The upside penetration is not all that convincing.

That could be good or bad depending on one’s viewpoint.

Is there no more energy left or is the XBI just hesitating before moving higher?

If we pull back to the longer, weekly timeframe and recall, all of this action may be just a ‘test’ of a larger (timeframe) up-thrust.

That marginal energy would correlate with limited upside during a potential breakout (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Nears Set-Up Target

June 4, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, XBI 3 Comments

The Pattern (About) To Repeat

Of course, there’s no guarantee, biotech is going to repeat a repeating pattern; ‘spring-to-up-thrust’, but it looks probable.

We’ll start first, with the unmarked chart of biotech XBI.

Looking at the past month or so of trading activity, the eye should be drawn immediately to the potential.

Biotech XBI, Daily

If it’s a little vague, the second chart shows the detail.

Now, for the mark-up

Not included on the charts, is MACD.

If price action gets to the up-thrust (target) area and stalls, daily MACD could post a bearish divergence.

Let’s not forget, this congestion action continues to build a downside count when considering Point & Figure.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Bearish Bet on Biotech

May 23, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-11, Prechter, SPBIO, The Maverick of Wall Street, The Speck, XBI

‘Monkey See … ‘

The next ‘show’ is about to begin; let’s take our seats, get the popcorn ready.

Setting the stage, we have this, just out.

Looks like there’s another ‘Speck’ on the horizon. You know, ‘The Thing’ as The Maverick of Wall Street, likes to call it.

But we can’t have this crisis go to waste. How about a press release, letting everyone know, we’re about to make (yet) another bundle of cash.

Is that really going to happen, this time around?

To find the answer or the probability, we’ll go to the chart of biotech XBI, and have it tell us the likely outcome.

Biotech XBI, Daily (inverted)

As we’ve being doing previously, here, and here, we’re using the daily but inverting it to show bearish (LABD) potential.

As a reminder, this update, indicated a possible stop for a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

That location is labeled ‘Stop No. 1‘, on the chart.

Yesterday’s action presented the opportunity to move the stop; it’s labeled as ‘Stop No. 2‘.

Rule of Alternation

This ‘rule’, coming from Robert Prechter Jr., says:

‘What happened last time, is not likely to happen this time.’

That guides us to expect something different.

From the perspective of the analysis above, that ‘different’ is pointing probabilities to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279