Category Archives: SILJ

Miners … Good, Bad, & Ugly

March 29, 2025 By in Airlines, DIA, Dow 30, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Nasdaq, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SILJ, SOXX, SPY, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Three Amigos

The Good: Only the Senior Miners, GDX, have managed to claw their way past the highs set nearly five years ago in August of 2020.

The Bad: Junior Miners GDXJ, remain below that August ’20, level.

The Ugly: Silver Miners SILJ, are the worst, having their peak a bit later in February of 2021; they remain over -35%, below their highs.

The Market Rolls Over

Yesterday, Friday, was a down day for the Dow, S&P, The Qs, Transports, Airlines, Semis, nearly everyone.

For some of these indices, their all-time highs were posted months, if not years ago.

There may be some (bidding) ‘defensive’ action with gold (GLD) continuing higher; as said in earlier posts, the rest of the monetary metals are far below their highs.

Let’s look at the weakest; the silver miners, as they are likely going to be the ones most affected by an economic decline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver Miners, SILJ, Daily

We’re at an interesting spot.

Friday was a down day that pushed below existing support, shown in zoom area.

We have simultaneous action.

Once resistance was penetrated on March 18th, it could not hold. After eight trading days, on Friday, it posted lower on heavy volume.

However, we can see that SILJ, is now in (a minor) Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. So, the question is, what happens next?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Sell The News?

March 16, 2025 By in David Weis, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-05, Positions, SILJ, SLV, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Hours Away

We’re just hours away from the Sunday futures open.

Yesterday, military attacks on Houthi rebels have commenced; links here, here, and here.

Middle East conflict escalates.

The question is, will the markets see it that way?

Will it be ‘escalation’, with gold futures ever higher, or is it ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’?

If we’re looking at potential gold/silver related downside, then let’s review the miners; they’ve been in a bear market for nearly five years (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly Close

Before getting to the right side of the chart, let’s start with the ‘Time’s Up’, arrow; a reversal and decline over 50%.

That ‘arrow’ corresponds to this post.

At this point, gold and the miners appear to be stretched with silver currently in non-confirmation.

If it was really (simple) inflation, it would be like the 1980s, with both moving in tandem.

Then & Now

With that, what has GDXJ, done in the past?

The chart itself shows us it tends to exhibit a repeating pattern of Wyckoff ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

We may know within hours if gold, silver, and the miners, are going to reverse or launch into some kind of extended rally (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver & DOGE

February 14, 2025 By in DOGE, DRV, DRV-25-06, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, IYR, Real Estate, SILJ, SLV

Gold-to-Silver Ratio 90:1

It certainly is a big number, link here.

The assumption these days, is silver’s ‘along for the ride’.

What ‘ride’?

Does anybody (thinking) think, silver and its green energy grift will survive a DOGE attack?

Asking for a friend. 🙂

Of course, just moments after the article linked above comes out, silver spikes and then gets mercilessly whacked.

The miners, GDX, GDXJ, SILJ reversed as well.

Silver SLV, Daily

If there’s going to be a continued move higher, then price action must exceed today’s high.

It’s at least a ‘line in the sand’ to prove the bears wrong (not advice, not a recommendation).

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, real estate (IYR) reversed to the downside

Discussion on that, later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners: The (short) Set-Up

January 4, 2025 By in DUST, DUST-25-01, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions, SILJ Tags: , , , ,

Setting The Tone, For 2025?

The chess game continues.

If it really was as simple as ‘dollar collapse’ and ‘inflation’, why have the miners GDX, GDXJ, and SILJ, been in a bear market since 2011; fourteen years ago?

During that time, we’ve had rallies for sure. However, the fastest (major) moves with 2016, the exception, have been to the downside.

Drilling down a bit on Senior Miners GDX, we’ll look at the 4-Hour chart.

Senior Miners, GDX, 4-Hour

In the past three months, depending on one’s timeframe, there were trading opportunities both up and down.

With that said, we’re now at the far-right edge.

There’s a (potential) set-up: ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust‘ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

As noted in yesterday’s update, right around mid-session, a short was opened: DUST-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, the expectation is for GDX, to decline immediately from here (DUST, higher) at the next session.

Anything else, suggests a trade failure.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver/Gold Miners (crash) Channel

December 18, 2024 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, SILJ Tags: , , , ,

Unfolding Quickly

The past two months have seen the miners, GDX, GDXJ, SILJ, reverse down, hit a low, then upside test and now, reverse down again.

For years, the big picture analysis of this sector has been consistently bearish.

Sure, there we upside opportunities but the (more) dynamic moves were to the downside.

All of which, brings us to now.

Senior Miners GDX, Weekly

A sideways market is a bear market; that’s what we’ve had for over four years (not advice, not a recommendation).

A ‘terminating wedge’ taking a year to form has broken to the downside.

Then, an upward recovery (test), that reversed last week, continuing to the downside this week.

Looking to the left on the chart, we see the ‘repeating’ channel.

This notation shows a down-channel of this type has happened before. The market itself, has set its own precedent.

At this juncture, this week’s right -side channel line is declining at approximately -95%, annualized.

Decide for yourself if that type of trend constitutes a ‘crash’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … One More ‘Blip’?

December 1, 2024 By in Biotech, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, SILJ, SLV, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI-24-01 Tags: 1 Comment

Setting Up, For The Downside

The next trade (lower) could be in silver itself, or it could be in the Junior Miners, GDXJ, and/or SILJ, the sectors (ETFs) most susceptible (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last time silver had a major downswing was in early-to-late 2022; tracking fund SLV, declined about -35%, top-to-bottom.

During the same period, Junior Miners GDXJ, declined over -50%, so take your pick.

Silver SLV, closed out last week penetrating downside support and then moving (inching) back higher.

We should all know what that means. 🙂

Silver SLV, Weekly

Silver penetrates support and then retraces; Wyckoff ‘spring’ position (not advice, not a recommendation).

The 50% retrace area is shown. It will be interesting to see if SLV, gets that far.

Perhaps more interesting from a set-up standpoint, is what GDXJ, and SILJ, will be doing if and when that happens.

Positioning: SLV & Miners

The mining sector has been ‘out-of-favor’ since this update years ago.

Since that time and looking at the charts, the most dynamic (fastest action) trade opportunities, were to the downside.

There are no open positions in this sector at this time (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning: Biotech, XBI-24-01

Separately, as stated in this update, the short trade in biotech (via XBI) was brief.

It was stopped out with a loss of 0.15-pts (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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Silver Top … Part V

May 26, 2024 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, SILJ, SLV 1 Comment

Almost There … On Top Of Resistance

Here’s an obvious statement.

If silver’s going to breakout into ‘the big one’, it has to go higher (much higher) from here.

Can we say at this juncture, the press and ‘investors’ alike, are at max hyperbole?

Straight Out of The Bog

Here are just a few titles from the boggy moor, otherwise known as YouTube:

‘100% Certainty …’

‘Gold’s about to shock …’

‘… Warning to you all …’

‘… Prepare for the biggest rally ever ….’

And on it goes.

However, somehow finding its way out of the mire, we do have this: Bearish Reversal in Gold & Silver, link here.

From that link, and in Wyckoff terms, price action of ETF silver junior miner SILJ, is the clearest of the others, GDX and GDXJ.

Depending on how it goes this coming week, we’ll cover that ETF in a future update.

Now, back to silver. Does the actual truth, the chart, agree with the hype?

Silver SLV, Weekly

Since the last update SLV, reversed (higher) through what the market decided, was an intermediate resistance zone.

As shown below, SLV has pushed above the ‘last’ resistance and has come back to ‘test’.

Last week’s volume is shown as a red bar. Some prior red bars of similar size are highlighted on the chart.

This time could be different but the last time(s) such ‘negative’ volume occurred, resulting price action in SLV, was either sideways or down.

But wait, there’s more. The chart below shows SLV, has met or is near a measured move target.

The coming week could see SLV, inch its way higher to the measured move or continue the testing (possibly, reversal) action it started last week.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279