Category Archives: SOXS

SOXX … ‘Gut Punch’

April 2, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-02, SOXX Leave a comment

‘Threatening’ Price Action

As of this post (11:31 a.m., EST) SOXX, price action is threatening to print a new daily high.

No matter what direction the market’s going to decide, new bull move or beginning of the bear, it will not let anyone get aboard comfortably.

To use a quote from yesterday:

“This is what markets do”

If this ‘last chance’ at posting a new high fails and the SOXX retreats from here, it’s possible the bulls have shown exhaustion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Once again, we’re at The Danger Point®, where the risk on a short-trade, is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Using the ‘Retrace’

March 31, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, GLW, GW-26-09, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-01, SOXX 2 Comments

Who’s Retracing The Least?

Today was a sharply higher in the SOXX, with 50% retrace (from the 3/25, high) on both a close and print basis.

The short trade, SOXS-26-01, was stopped-out (with profit) as yesterdays’ low was hit.

Looking at price action, Corning GLW, had ‘ease-of-movement’ lower yesterday, only partially retraced today (unlike SOXX and NVDA, for example).

In addition, the retrace was 38.2%, on both a print and close basis (lower than SOXX).

Repositioned short, as GLW-26-09, with stop at Monday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Blip and Dip

March 30, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-01, SOXX 2 Comments

Then, There’s The Channel

The last update said ‘normal’ market behavior, is for some kind of upward test (not advice, not a recommendation).

Well, this morning’s ‘blip’, could be it.

Adding some intrigue, the attached chart, NVDA on a weekly basis.

If we count all-time highs as Fibonacci Week 1, then we see (aggressively), pivoting lower into a trend and potential channel on Week 21.

This is scary business.

It implies, the ‘demand’ side of this channel (left blue line), is a long way away to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Downside Breakout … SOXX

March 26, 2026 By in SOXX, SOXS, Semiconductors, Artificial Intelligence, SOXX-26-01, SOXS-26-01 Leave a comment

Will The Gap Be Filled?

The SOXX opened gap-down and has continued lower during the early session.

Some gaps are never filled.

The chart from yesterday’s post has been updated with today’s action so far.

It’s clear, the market has respected the Fibonacci sequence.

Now that it’s obvious, it’s likely to morph into something else (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Based on where we are in this historic market bubble (i.e., continuing lower), probabilities for retrace and gap-fill at this point, are low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short Trade SOXX-26-01

When an attempt was made to sell short SOXX, increase position size, the broker indicated “no additional shares available”.

That short was quickly covered (with profit) and another short opened via 3X inverse fund SOXS, as SOXS-26-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trading leveraged inverse funds on a medium-term basis requires more active monitoring, so one does not get whacked with an adverse move. 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Monday’s Damage Assessment

October 13, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Bert Dohmen, BIS, DRIP, DRV, DUST, DXD, FAZ, IBB, JDST, LABD, LABD-25-13, Positions, QID, SDS, SOXS, SPBIO, TZA, XBI

Where’s The Crash?

The YouTube weekend ‘consensus’ was for a Monday morning massacre.

So, where is it?

Bert Dohmen, said it best in this interview, (paraphrasing), ‘If everybody agrees with our analysis, then we have to get a new analysis’.

Monday’s First 15-Minutes

After the first 15-minutes of trade, an assessment was made on the ‘Leveraged Inverse Funds’.

The point being, since this site’s maintaining a short position in biotech (via LABD), how did it fare when compared to the other funds?

After the first 15-minutes of trade, the table at left shows all inverse funds being tracked, in the red, some painfully so (like SOXS, JDST, DUST).

All red, except for the two biotech’s, LABD and BIS.

Those two funds are short vehicles for biotech XBI and IBB, respectively.

The XBI index has not (yet) made a new daily low.

Conversely, the inverse fund LABD, has not made a new daily high.

With that said, the stop on LABD-25-13, remains at last Friday’s low of 33.17 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Bubble’ & The ‘Beast’

September 26, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, BIS, IBB, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, SOXX-25-14, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 3 Comments

Downside For Both?

The ‘bubble’ is obvious, Artificial Intelligence.

The ‘beast’, not so much, but revealed below.

The last update, presented a case for the SOXX top, a proxy for A.I.

Note: If the SOXX, has made its final high, it’s still very early in the reversal:

Wyckoff said a century ago, ‘It’s as if the weight of a feather can move the market in either direction’.

That’s where we are now.

For biotech (IBB, XBI), different forces are at work.

Biotech IBB, Weekly

The 38.2%, retrace from 9/19 high, to 9/25 low, is in the vicinity of 140.90 (magenta dashed line).

Fridays are typically biased to the upside.

There’s a possibility IBB, may test (upward) throughout the session, heading to (at or near) 38%, by the end of the day (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX at The Top

September 25, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bert Dohmen, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, SOXX-25-14, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Did The Bubble (just) Pop?

The SOXX, closed lower yesterday and is down again, in today’s pre-market.

If we’re in a sustainable reversal, volume provided the clue.

As with Carvana, SOXX volume in the last session increased substantially from the day prior.

Lower close, higher volume, increasing pressure.

In pre-market, SOXX continues to drop as we speak. Is this the ‘gap-down’ Bert Dohmen talked about? Link here.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily Close

We’re in Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ condition. Pre-market action says it’s a draw-down, best case.

Worst case (for the bulls) is that we’re at the top … and it’s a long way down.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘Psychotic’ Market

September 13, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bert Dohmen, QTR Fringe Finance, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 4 Comments

Pivot Point

The first 17:43-minutes at this link, describes the market’s mental condition and that of its unwitting participants.

Even though the language used is different (contains profanity), it’s essentially the same thing echoed by Bert Dohmen at this update.

They’re both saying a ‘break’ is coming.

This time around however, when it happens, it won’t be anything like we’ve ever seen (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short Trades Only (so far)

Question:

When’s the best time to refine short trade skills?

Answer:

When you don’t have to. 🙂

We’re coming up on two-years of short-selling as presented on this site.

The real (sustained) breakdown has yet to happen. All the while, short expertise is being honed.

With that, let’s look at the latest (potential) short-trade candidate.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

We’ve had seven consecutive higher closes.

Was that it, or will Monday, be a Fibonacci eight?

The last time there were as many consecutive higher closes, was from 2/10, to 2/20, this year.

That time, it was eight higher closes, kicking off a -36.5%, decline in less than eight weeks.

The ‘Pattern’

As shown, we have the repeating pattern of ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Volume Clues

September 12, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX

Inflection Point

We’re right at the top of resistance.

It looks like volume is sending us a message.

But what?

The increase in volume is (potentially) either absorption of sellers, getting ready to move higher, or distribution with the ‘manipulators’ holding up the SOXX, so that sell, and sell-short positions are opened (not advice, not a recommendation).

Either way, it looks like something’s about to happen.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

A new daily high, points probability to the upside; new low, the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Hovers at Highs

September 11, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, Up-Thrust

Mid-Air

This could be all there is for the SOXX.

If price action can’t continue higher from here, we could have a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279