Category Archives: SPBIO

The Biotech ‘Blip’

April 17, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Was That It?

If this morning’s upside ‘attempt‘ was all there is for biotech XBI, then it’s just a blip on the RADAR screen.

If so, the sector could be entering a very dynamic phase (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s always the chance, price action is slowing to mount another try at the upside.

However, if the trading channel with its trendlines remains in-effect (shown below), lower prices are the higher probability.

Biotech XBI, Daily

At this point in the session (11:42 a.m., EST), XBI has made a new daily low but more importantly, has not made a new daily high.

The ‘blip’ higher at the open, may have been the best chance for a Wyckoff spring to develop; so far, it’s not happening.

The Fibonacci channel previously discussed (here) remains in-effect. This morning’s action appears to be confirming the right side trendline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

After The Close … Biotech

April 16, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. Elder, LABD, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Penetrates Support & Stops

The pre-market update had biotech XBI, at its Fibonacci projected move, ready to continue lower.

Indeed, there was a gap-lower open and price action attempted to move lower (below support), but then it stopped, closing the day with a narrow bar.

Anyone who’s a student of Wyckoff, would immediately recognize that description; we’re in spring position.

So, is XBI going to launch higher?

Well, anything can happen.

However, maybe a better description of potential, is that XBI, is in position to attempt to move higher.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Note: Elder’s Force Index for the past two trading days has lost downside energy (middle indicator panel).

This gives some probability of an attempted upside move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Breakdown … Is This It?

April 16, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Dr. Elder, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter, LABD, SPBIO, UNG, USO, XBI, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

‘Respecting’ Fibonacci … So Far

Before we get started, biotech may have decisively turned the corner to the downside with this, just out … maybe.

‘Zero Respect For Thieves’

Before we get started, with getting started, a brief mention on thievery.

Years ago, Dr. Elder stated he had ‘zero respect for thieves’; those who had stolen his book tile, ‘Trading For A Living’, in various forms.

When you have limited skills and even less insight, thievery is the only way to go … that is, until you’re found-out.

Turns out, the analysis of silver SLV, posted on this site (here and here) nearly two weeks ago, specifically the presence of SLV volume ‘spikes’ at inflection points, may have been ‘lifted’ without citation by a prominent YouTuber (who will not be named … yet).

It may have been just a coincidence. If so, all is well. However, a ‘second time’, not so much. So, let’s all play ‘nice’ shall we? 🙂

Now, on to biotech.

Biotech, XBI, Daily

This update is being released just before the open. It looks like XBI, is about gap-lower.

We see in the chart, XBI, is respecting the Fibonacci projections.

As with the recent oil market analysis and USO, (here and here) we let the market decide what areas are important.

In the case of XBI, and unless significant demand comes in, lower prices appear to be the most probable direction (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

History Repeats & Trendlines

April 12, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

What’s The Market Telling Us?

Every market has its own style.

In the case of biotech, we’ve been attempting to verify a trendline as well as a trading channel.

At this point for XBI, it looks like there are several of each.

Biotech XBI, Daily

We’ll present the chart with lines, channel(s), and let the viewer decide.

The zoom area shows contact points.

Note, the entire channel is a Fibonacci 13-Days, wide.

Add to that, counting from the left channel line to the center line (contact point), is a Fibonacci 8-Days.

Stopped Short

As always, anything can happen.

If I was short this market, 🙂 , where would I put my stop?

A different way to think about that question, is to ask another question.

At this point in the market action, where would the premise of downward reversal (from testing resistance) be seriously damaged or negated outright?

Looking at the chart, one could reasonably say, the answer is yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Globe Life … ‘Vaporized’

April 11, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. John Campbell, Ed Dowd, GL, LABD, Life Insurance, SPBIO, XBI

Is This, The ‘Go-Forward’ Model?

In just one day, Globe Life closes down – 53.14%, on historic volume, over 35-million shares.

No matter the narrative, it shows just how fast a market can implode.

Years ago, while watching an episode of Wall Street Week, with Louis Rukeyser, one of his guests commented on a corporation that released (unexpectedly) bad earnings.

He said … ‘I believe in the cockroach theory. Where there’s one, there’s more’.

Does anyone think Globe Life is, or will be, an isolated incident? This could even be a ‘Lehman Moment‘ and we just don’t know it (not advice, not a recommendation).

Up-coming (potential) problems with life insurance have already been covered; best described in this brief four-minute clip, link here.

The Biotech Connection

The connection between biotech and life insurance can be correlated with this link and this one.

Biotech, XBI, Daily

The chart below, is slightly different from one’s typically presented on this site.

It’s on the daily timeframe but it’s compressed to better show the sector sub-dividing lower.

Yesterday’s Fibonacci analysis may still apply but we won’t really know until we see tomorrow’s action.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Beat Up & Down

April 10, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, SPBIO, XBI, ZeroHedge

Fibonacci Day 13

Biotech’s been beat up and down so much, you can lose track of what’s really happening.

Include the financial media side-show, and it’s a recipe for confusion and delay.

In the case of biotech XBI, it had a ‘change of character’ on March 21st, then morphed into a trading channel.

Now, it looks like it has a Fibonacci time correlation.

It all sounds complicated, so let’s take a look.

Biotech XBI, Daily

The original change of character, identified in this post.

Yesterday, Tuesday, was Fibonacci Day 13, from the point where the ‘change’ was noted.

It appears, the market used Tuesday, to post the right side (supply side) of the current trading channel.

Of course, there have been no ‘confirming’ hits on that right side so far; we just have one data point.

As the action unfolds, the key is to look for the market to adhere to the channel or tell us that something else is happening (not advice, not a recommendation).

Sorry, No Rate Cuts

That’s news to some.

On this site, it’s been a working premise for over a year.

Remember, back then, it was called ‘The Pivot’:

“Like ‘bread and circuses’, the ‘pivot’ discussion is a distraction … keeping the proletariat placated.”

Now, the man behind the curtain has been exposed, here and here, it may get very dangerous … as if it’s not already.

This post is being released (12:52 p.m., EST) before the Fed minutes. No telling what kind of volatility may, or may not, ensue from there.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bad News For Biotech

April 5, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

Good News, If You’re Short

Yesterday, biotech (XBI) had the chance to reverse off Wednesday’s lows, continue higher into an upside move, a Wyckoff spring.

It didn’t happen.

The move failed spectacularly.

The ‘Street’ pays attention to such failed moves. Thus far, unless there’s some kind of massive demand, biotech XBI, has penetrated and tested support, now resistance, and is moving lower.

Strategy First

Recall, the work was done (three weeks ago) indicating high probability of a long-term reversal in this sector.

Adding some entertainment with the Fed is, or the Fed isn’t (going to cut rates). How about the Fed never was. 🙂

Until proven otherwise, we’re in a high, and higher, interest rate environment.

Biotech XBI, 4-Hour

Moving closer-in on the chart, the 4-Hour.

As we can see, on March 21st, XBI had a change of character.

Price action was relatively ordered and well behaved but then became more volatile on the 21st; it all fell apart, declining sharply on April 2nd.

At the point where the ‘change’ is noted, it also looks like XBI, began to form its (current) trading channel.

P&F Projection

If XBI, continues its decline, where’s it going?

What’s a likely target?

There are several methods that can be used; Fibonacci projection, measured move, and P&F to name a few.

A basic P&F projection is shown below:

What’s shown is the maximum projection range (not advice, not a recommendation).

As this post is being created (11:52 a.m., EST), XBI continues to grind its way higher in what’s likely a move to test resistance in the 90.50 – 90.60, area.

For the breakdown to be negated, we would need to see a decisive upside penetration of the right-side channel line.

It’s close but so far, price action is within ‘normal’ correction boundaries.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Breakdown

April 2, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI

Surprising Weakness

When a market’s not performing as expected, then obviously, something else is going on.

The last update on biotech XBI, was expecting a bounce higher to take out potential stops in the area noted.

It’s not happening,

Instead, shown below, each bounce has less energy and, in the pre-market, XBI is trading lower.

Strategy First

Recall, we’re in a potential long-term reversal (Wyckoff up-thrust); based on the action of the market itself, that analysis is proving to be correct.

Biotech XBI, Daily

After each bounce, price action goes on to post new lows.

For yesterday’s action (Monday), not only do we have a new daily low but a new weekly low as well.

At this point in the pre-market (9:10 a.m., EST) XBI, is trading lower at 92.50, or – 1.44%.

We’re right at support levels and pressuring those levels.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, The Next Set-Up

March 28, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, Martha Stokes, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, XBI 1 Comment

Breaks Channel … Heads For Potential Up-Thrust

The market is always right.

If it’s not behaving as expected, then it’s obviously doing something else.

In the case of biotech XBI, that something else, may be working its way to the next set-up.

Strategy First

Until price action proves otherwise, the overall long term reversal assessment of the sector has not changed (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ve had a potential long-term up-thrust (reversal) that’s been covered here, and here.

That second link contains a 3-Day chart analysis.

Looking at the current price action and having it dictate what chart to use, we’ll switch to a 2-Day, which shows the potential more clearly.

Biotech XBI, 2-Day

The sector has failed to break below support in the 92 – 93, area. Instead, it has decided to bounce in what looks to be a possible minor spring-to-up-thrust.

We can see there’ve been two ‘hits’ on the upper resistance line. One, immediately after the up-thrust breakdown and one later … 4-bars later.

These hits essentially confirm the area, in effect, setting it up for potential penetration.

One has to think about where the stops are located.

If I was short this sector (I have been, but not currently), where would I place my stop?

Naturally, I’d put it right above the resistance (blue) line, exactly where everyone else has put theirs 🙂

Years ago, Martha Stokes wrote an update on why everybody gets stopped out of their trades, paraphrasing from this link:

‘The Market Makers don’t know you are there; they’re not interested in your tiny little stop order.

If your order does get taken out, it’s because too many small traders put their stops at the same location.

There’s an order imbalance. The market’s response is essentially automatic … take out the stops.’

With that, let’s see what happens next.

There’s no guarantee XBI, will penetrate the resistance area but if it does, we won’t be surprised.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

There Are No ‘Rate Cuts’

March 22, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Appalachia's Homestead, Biotech, Dr. John Campbell, Ed Dowd, Federal Reserve, Greg Hunter, Interest Rates, LABD, Michael Bordenaro, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, Uneducated Economist, Wyckoff, XBI 2 Comments

‘There Is No Spoon’

We’re in the surreal; like The Matrix.

YouTube content creators have noticed the public’s inability, refusal, and denial to recognize (or accept) the truth:

Michael Bordenaro; ‘everybody’s so weak, so sensitive, they can’t handle the facts.’

Patera, Appalachia’s Homestead; discussing her lineage (Cherokee) and history, seeing the similarities of today, applying the lessons; some are more concerned about her hair and makeup.

Then, Uneducated Economist; ‘no amount of wishing is going to bring events back to the way it was. It’s effectively a new construct.’

Interest Rate Ruse

The 40-year bull market in bonds is over; rates are not going lower, they’re going higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Ignoring or refusing to recognize this (highly probable) truth when analyzing markets, is a potential strategic error.

The longer the ruse goes on, the more violent the reaction may be when the masses (finally) ‘awake’.

All of which brings us to biotech, XBI, SPBIO, $SPSIBI.

Biotech Truth

Truth about biotech is brutal; described here, here and here.

Exactly how this will all hit the mainstream in force, is unknown. However, let’s not forget, ‘when price action goes south, bad news comes out’.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Heading south at this point, is biotech XBI.

Market test of the Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) appears complete; previously discussed here, here and here.

As of 1:40 p.m., EST, XBI is trading back into congestion (92 – 96) and looks to have formed a trading channel.

Left channel contact line shown as No. 1, is supported by this post, potential long-term reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279