Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Warren Buffett has a massive cash hoard; now, famous short-seller Michael Burry is calling it quits, links here, here and here.
The last time this type of news happened in a big way, was right around the Nasdaq peak in 2000 (not advice not a recommendation).
Back then, ‘old-timers’ with forty-years in the business, were throwing up their hands, throwing in the towel and retiring; the market ‘did not make sense anymore’.
NVDA, CVNA & Biotech
With Nvidia posting a new low today, the analysis shown here, is proving to be accurate thus far (not advice, not a recommendation)
Additionally, Carvana posted an up-thrust (reversal) as presented in this post (not advice, not a recommendation).
Next up, is biotech, XBI.
Biotech XBI, Hourly
We’re in up-thrust condition (potential reversal) have a ‘sign of supply’ and now testing the upside.
Note: The ‘test’ has exceeded the previous high. Although rare, it can happen.
So, is it a test or a continuation of an upside breakout?
The rest of the markets seem to be in a similar condition.
Carvana just posted a new daily high (as of 11:25 a.m., EST), possibly taking out the (early) shorts.
Let’s see if it manages to close above that 332.33, level discussed in this post (not advice, to a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
With about 15-minutes before the regular open, CVNA has moved slightly higher from yesterday and is nearing Fibonacci retrace levels.
Technically speaking and from a Wycoff standpoint, any push past and into the 38%, level (lower, blue dashed-line), puts CVNA in ‘up-thrust’ (potential reversal) position.
The preferred scenario is a session close within the ‘Up-Thrust Zone’ (not advice, not a recommendation).
Separately, this link is one of the most recent, describing the precarious overall condition of the market.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Seen as far back as the late 1980s, on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser, but I digress.
So, here we are, waiting for the next shoe to drop.
‘Isolated’
That label replaces the ’07 – ’08, meltdown term of, ‘contained‘.
Using the aforementioned theory, do we really think that UnitedHealth, is an isolated incident?
Instead of presenting an opinion, let’s go to the market itself and see what it’s telling us.
Healthcare Sector XLV, Weekly Close
We’ve just had the largest upside pressure in the history of XLV, back as far as 1999.
After that, it not only stalls, but prints a Wyckoff up-thrust (reversal) right along with a terminating wedge.
Note, after the record setting Force Index, further upside pressure has evaporated.
It’s as if the bulls abandoned the market, exhausted.
As Ed Dowd said in a recent interview, link here, these types of record-breaking moves are typically ending moves; not the beginning of a next leg up (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Who knows what type of ‘weather’ we’ll have this time.
So, nat-gas can’t go any lower than where it is now, right?
Wrong
That type of thinking’s called a ‘Mind Trap’, link here.
David Weis would typically start mentoring sessions with a question (after presenting a chart):
“What do you see?”
Forgetting all the factors that ‘should’ drive the price of nat-gas higher, we have the chart.
Natural Gas ETF, UNG: Daily
The upper blue line is resistance which price action ‘up-thrusted’ (reversed).
The green line is a minor support area.
This is where a long position was initiated (UNG-25-01). The expectation for the next day (last Friday), was for an immediate increase it price.
That didn’t happen. The long position, the only ‘long’ for this year, was exited (not advice, not a recommendation).
The orange line is another support area but the lower blue line, if UNG gets there, is the ‘spring’ set-up target.
U.S & China Nat-Gas
Last Friday’s chaos with China and tariffs, begs the question if Chinese nat-gas shipments would be used as a tit-for-tat pawn; meaning, China halts all purchases.
The short answer is no.
For all of 2025, there’ve been no shipments, link here.
With that said, if nat-gas is going to move lower to the target area shown, then something else would be the driving mechanism.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The ‘risk’ on a short position in the Dow (DIA), is yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).
It’s very early in the pre-market (7:48 a.m., EST), DIA is trading slightly higher (at 464.34), but anything can happen between now and the open.
Massive Margin Call
The Trillion Dollar margin call has to come from somewhere; maybe yesterday’s action in the metals and miners is going to force everyone’s hand.
Silver spiked, outside-down, on heavy volume.
With that said, on to the chart.
Dow 30 DIA, Daily
From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it’s all there; a push through resistance to all-time highs, a struggle, then new daily low and now today, a possible upside test.
The chart also shows an apparent volume climax, a typical ‘last gasp’ market action.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Both biotech funds, IBB, and XBI, are now in an up-thrust (potential reversal) condition.
In each case, the ETFs have pushed through a long-established trading range, straight into resistance.
The last update focused on less liquid IBB, because it was not known if heavily traded XBI, would push through its trading range (being the weaker of the two).
Since that initial update, both indices are now above their trading range.
Of course, what happens next is the question.
Biotech XBI, Weekly
The blue line is long established resistance.
The black dashed line is the top of the trading range and the up-thrust condition.
At this point anything can happen.
XBI, could reverse immediately or grind its way along, dissipate momentum, or even move higher.
We’re at the point where the risk of being wrong on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 