Category Archives: Wyckoff

Downside Leader … Biotech

January 14, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IBB, IWM, LABD-25-01, Russell 2000, SPBIO, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Confirming, Right-Side Channel

It’s a recurring theme with biotech.

Over and again, this sector (IBB, XBI) is not participating in tandem with the other major indices.

Today’s pre-market mayhem higher over supposed slower outlays of possible trade tariffs to happen some-time, some-day, caused the major indices to launch upward. 🙂

Well, everybody seemed to be blasting higher except one sector, biotech.

Wyckoff Directed Action

No matter what the ‘narrative’ may be, Wyckoff analysis directs us to look at what the market is actually doing, then interpret the action.

Early after the open, trade TZA-25-01, was exited, +8.9% gain, short position opened in biotech via LABD, Trade: LABD-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

Today posted outside down, taking out both the high and low of the prior session.

Note the trading channel and width, Fibonacci 13-Days.

Also note the two ‘breakaway gaps’. The second one on January 10th, much wider than November 12th, last year.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate, Hits Support

January 11, 2025 By in DRV, IYR, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, SRS, Wyckoff

What’s Next?

Since late November, last year, real estate IYR, has essentially gone straight down.

In that time, it’s dropped -13.5%.

As we’ll see, IYR, has hit and penetrated support.

So, what’s next?

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

Note the ‘S’ and ‘U’ labeling.

It’s our repeating pattern of ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust’.

Also note, the initial bounce off support the prior two-weeks before last week’s (slight) penetration.

That ‘bounce’ did not go far, indicating continued weakness.

Even so, the last bar puts us in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position; some type of upward attempt would be ‘normal’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that upward bounce does not happen or fails quickly, then it implies (continued) lower prices ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Russell 2000, Breakdown

January 10, 2025 By in David Weis, IWM, Russell 2000, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Short(s) Hanging On … Tight

Everyone seems to think, January 20th (if we ever get there), is going to bring a new era of ‘prosperity’.

We even have a hot-off-the-press, jobs number, magically appear to bolster the case (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price Action … Truth

The crux of Wyckoff analysis, proposed over a century ago, is that we’re to completely ignore the financial press.

The focus is to be on the action itself.

Doing that, identified a potential opportunity; Russell 2000 (IWM), presented as a possible short candidate (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since that update (as of 11:13 a.m., EST), IWM is down near -4%, leveraged inverse fund TZA, up about +13%.

Possibly more important as we’ll see below, are the trendlines and channel(s).

Russell 2000 ETF, IWM, Daily

The grey (dashed) trendline has verified contact points on January 6th, 7th, 8th and today, the 10th.

The ‘reverse trendline’ technique is being used to identify the potential right side.

Reverse trendline, discussed in the David Weis training video, link here.

What’s Next?

The short answer is, it’s not known.

However, the probability is, for action to continue in the direction already established … that is, down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Watch for ‘Tight Action’

January 6, 2025 By in CVNA, David Weis, IWM, Russell 2000, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff Tags: , , , , 2 Comments

Coiled For A Move

How should the price action segment (at left) be marked up?

There are several Wyckoff analysis lessons and at least one empirical observation (made over several decades) in just the 16-bars of price action.

Empirical Observation

In a sense the prior update on Carvana (CVNA) illustrates the point.

When price action gets tight, something’s about to happen.

When that analysis was presented, little did we know, ‘Hindenburg‘ would come out and whack the stock.

So, let’s move on and mark up the chart … which just so happens to be the Russell 2000 ETF, IWM.

Russell 2000, IWM, Daily

The wide high-volume bar has been ‘tested’.

Price action penetrated lows posted December 20th; currently in spring condition that has (today) just posted into an up-thrust condition.

Repeating Pattern

From the late Wyckoff expert and mentor David Weis, spring-to-up-thrust is a repeating set-up, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Dow … Down

January 2, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, Dow 30, DXD, DXD-25-01, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI Tags: , ,

Adjusting The Short(s)

For the Dow 30, the ‘January Effect’, lasted less than an hour.

From then on, it’s been decisively down.

The biotech sector on the other hand, was and is still (as of 1:30 p.m., EST) higher for the day.

Trade LABD-24-21, was exited with +14.52%, profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Dow 30 (DIA)

Price action is posting outside-down for the day with just over two-hours before the close.

The important part, Dow (DIA) upside was limited when compared to biotech.

Wyckoff said a century ago, we must adhere to what the price action is telling us; no matter our ‘opinion’, the action is always right.

With that said, short trade DXD-25-01, was initiated (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bad News Bonds

December 26, 2024 By in Bonds, Dr. Elder, Interest Rates, TBT, TLT, Wyckoff Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Stealth Collapse

Does anyone (thinking) think, the debt is going to be repaid?

What does anyone (thinking) think the DOGE Brothers are all about, anyway?

Does anyone (thinking) think RFK-Jr., is after Froot Loops and food coloring?

‘Sleepwalking through the markets’, as Dr. Elder put it, years ago.

The market itself tells us the most likely outcome, the crux of Wyckoff analysis.

Right now, bonds (TLT) are telling us, down-pressure (rates up) continues to build (not advice, not a recommendation).

Long Bonds, TLT, Weekly

Will this time, be like last time?

Moving in closer on the weekly

We’re about thirty minutes from the regular session.

Bonds (TLT), are set to open lower, continuing the downward slide with rates pressuring on higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Cracks

December 22, 2024 By in CVNA, KMX, The Epoch Times, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Same As It Ever Was?

It’s a market smorgasbord of opportunities but for this site, it’s not to the upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s get started with this:

‘The economy’s doing great, same as it ever was’

Just to remind us how great it is, is this, link here.

Moving on to the poster child of the day, Carvana.

As expected, the CarMax (KMX) earnings release, affected not only CarMax, but Carvana’s price action as well.

The last update on Carvana said to be on the lookout for a reversal based on the lack of volatility alone.

Well, that’s what happened, and volatility has increased.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The question now: CVNA price action has declined and penetrated established support, putting it in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

Will there be one (potential) last ‘blip’ higher?

Of course, CVNA could head down from here.

Price action over the next few days, will let us know the most likely outcome.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Down … No End In Sight

December 20, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-24-01 Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Parallel Channels

Moves that take years to develop, once started, can go on much longer than anyone would expect.

Depending on your viewpoint, biotech XBI, has been congesting sideways (in a range) from one-to-three years.

Either way, the current breakdown suggests the potential for a sustained down trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

Remember, Wyckoff said the market itself, will tell us what levels and trendlines are significant.

If the current (right-side) channel is valid, the market itself shows us a similar channel in the past.

Two things to note.

First: Record Volume

As far as known (source, TC2000), November 15th’s volume of 30.3 million, was the largest ever recorded for the XBI:

That’s ‘thirty-point-three’ (thirty-three), you can’t make this stuff up. 🙂

Second: Short Position

There were two attempts to short this market.

Trade: XBI-24-01

Actual, sell-short, closed with -0.40%, loss

Trade: LABD-24-21

Leveraged inverse fund LABD, currently open with +27.31%, profit (as of 9:02 a.m., EST).

Volatility & Leveraged Inverse

The objective is to trade short using LABD, for as long as practical (not advice, not a recommendation).

If the XBI begins to get volatile with wide swings and chop either up or down, slippage-decay on inverse funds becomes prohibitive.

LABD-24-21 may be exited at any time, without notice.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

All Jobs … ‘Fake’

December 17, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI Tags: ,

What’s The ‘Real’ Message

Like a scene out of Animal House, we have Tomfoolery going on with ‘official’ data, out of ‘reliable’ sources.

Turns out, at least in this case, the data’s fake.

Earlier in the year, we had 800,000 jobs. That was fake as well.

The message that most if not all have missed, is the market’s response to the fakery:

The markets have responded to revelations of fake data by doing … nothing. No wild swings, no major gaps lower or higher, nothing.

That’s the real message.

This site’s focused on what the market’s actually telling us, not what the (fake) financial press tries to tell us.

All of which, brings us to biotech.

Biotech Sector SPSIBI (SPBIO), Daily

We’re using ‘pure’ index (in this example) as the XBI, has minor differences, obscuring the Fibonacci sequence.

Price action’s consistent with establishing and confirming a right-side trend line (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, there has not been a new daily low … yet.

So, there’s still the possibility of breaking the downtrend (line) and morphing into something different.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Ends Week, Down

December 6, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, David Weis, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

That’s Not All

Is a long-term, downside reversal in this sector, about to bubble to the surface?

With yesterday’s update, it’s easy to get lost in the hourly and daily maneuvers; see a likely (short-term) potential, while it just distracts from the bigger picture.

That ‘big picture’, is below.

Once again, we have a (potential) repeating set-up: Wyckoff ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

Biotech XBI, Weekly Close

With this week’s volatile action but lower overall close (from last week), the ‘up-thrust test may be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279