Category Archives: ZeroHedge

Viva Las Vegas!

January 8, 2026 By in 2007 - 2008, Artificial Intelligence, S&P, S&P 500, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge Leave a comment

Well, Not Really

It’s no secret the ‘consumer’ is up against a wall.

FRED links for various forms of debt are here, here and here.

Then, we have this just out from ZeroHedge; wide disparity between bonds and the market.

Original website, link here.

Paraphrasing from that link:

‘Expect to see an equity crash that will rival or surpass any seen before.’

We’ve all been hearing that for a long time. Are we close?

Well, some sectors are already rolling over.

The focus (on this site) for a while, has been ‘consumer discretionary’ and related.

Yesterday, was DoorDash. Today, is Las Vegas.

Las Vegas Sands LVS, Monthly

During the last melt-down, LVS cratered over -99%.

The monthly chart shows the potential.

At present, we have a repeating pattern: Spring to Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tesla’s Electric Short

January 1, 2026 By in AMZN, CRWD, TSLA, XLY, XLY-25-03, ZeroHedge Leave a comment

Ignored, by ‘Mr. Big’

The latest out from ZeroHedge, says that Michael Burry (a.k.a., The Big Short), while claiming Tesla is overvalued (current P/E, 271), does not have a short position.

Adding to the ‘overvaluation’ theme, is deterioration in sales that’s now entering its second year; here and here. Yet, TSLA just made all-time highs this past December 22nd.

In a nutshell, this is the problem with ‘fundamentals’.

Meaning, as far as assessing price action probability, they’re not useful and never have been (not advice, not a recommendation).

A good example of that premise is CrowdStrike (CRWD); with its current P/E, at minus 428. That’s a negative.

When their P/E, is positive, which is not often, we get numbers like 786; yet, the closing price (yesterday) for CRWD was 468.76, with a market cap of 119.4 billion.

How does that even work?

Possibly more entertaining from the ZeroHedge link, are the comments. All kinds of reasons not to short Tesla.

Tesla TSA, Daily

What do you see?

TSLA printed an all-time high on an attempted breakout that has so far, fallen below resistance.

On the sell side, is of course, to short TSLA directly.

Not wanting to be completely exposed to any untoward action, one can short Consumer Discretionary XLY, and effectively short AMZN as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CAT (break) Test Complete?

December 20, 2025 By in CAT, CAT-25-02, ZeroHedge

A Tale of Two Fibonacci’s

As the tagline says, we had two Fibonacci levels posted by CAT on Friday.

The chart shows a print low on the 17th, to Friday’s high, was 38.2% retrace of the move from all-time highs.

The insert shows the close version of the same chart. On a close basis, CAT retraced 23.6%.

Caterpillar CAT, Daily

Note the action of the past two trading days were ‘inside’ the down bar posted on the 17th.

With the trend break from the prior update, then posting a retrace of two Fibonacci levels simultaneously, plus the large high-volume bar (on the 17th), suggests the upside test may be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

The week ended with multiple records set, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … in Reverse

November 16, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, NVDA, QTR Fringe Finance, Semiconductors, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Unique Characteristics

Each market has its own behavior.

At significant reversals since the all-time high on July 31st, Carvana has posted a Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’.

The last update, link here, said this:

“Technically speaking and from a Wycoff standpoint, any push past and into the 38%, level (lower, blue dashed-line), puts CVNA in ‘up-thrust’ (potential reversal) position.”

For that day, CVNA retraced upward to 50%, posted the up-thrust, then reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

Depending on A.I., and Nvidia specifically (more upside?), there’s a chance of a close above the 332.33 level previously discussed (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, some think last week was ‘it’; the market has cracked.

That analysis is here and here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … pre-market

November 12, 2025 By in CVNA, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Nearing Fibonacci Retrace

With about 15-minutes before the regular open, CVNA has moved slightly higher from yesterday and is nearing Fibonacci retrace levels.

Technically speaking and from a Wycoff standpoint, any push past and into the 38%, level (lower, blue dashed-line), puts CVNA in ‘up-thrust’ (potential reversal) position.

The preferred scenario is a session close within the ‘Up-Thrust Zone’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, this link is one of the most recent, describing the precarious overall condition of the market.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners & Elliott Wave

October 30, 2025 By in Elliott Wave, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Prechter, Retail Investor, ZeroHedge 5 Comments

Works Best Under Stress

Elliott Wave and Fibonacci are joined at the hip.

They work best when markets are emotional or under stress.

Historic moves like that of gold and silver, are such times (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ve already seen Fibonacci count(s) operating in the financial sector here and here.

So, let’s look at the miners and see what’s happening.

Senior Miners GDX, Daily Close

Five waves down; the direction of main trend has changed from up, to down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Recall, as long as the wave structure stays ‘in-effect’, the target area for the counter-trend retrace is:

‘The previous 4th-wave of lesser degree’, link here (click on ‘Corrective Waves’ and scroll to ‘Depth of Corrective Waves’).

That area is indicated by the magenta oval.

While the potential corrective wave grinds higher, ‘retail’ moves in to buy the dip, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bank Bust Ahead?

October 18, 2025 By in Banking, Credit Destruction, Positions, Wyckoff, XLF, XLF-25-08, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 5 Comments

Brother, Can You Spare a Dime?

What if there’s not enough money in the coffers, for a bank bail-out?

Last week’s chaos is still in the ‘next shoe-to-drop’, stage:

Auto Loan Delinquencies Surge 50% As Cracks Deepen Across U.S. Credit Markets, link here.

The Bizarre Bankruptcy At The Heart Of This Week’s Regional Bank Meltdown, link here.

“This Is Crazy”: Goldman Stunned By Regional Bank Meltdown; Its Clients Demand Answers To These 3 Questions, link here.

Wyckoff Had The Edge

The market itself told us ahead of time, something’s up.

The top in XLF, identified here. On the heels of that, literally hours before the Dow melt-down, this post.

Note: The Dow post even suggested potential action:

“From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it’s all there; a push through resistance to all-time highs, a struggle, then new daily low and now today, a possible upside test.”

The Dow pushed higher in the first fifteen-minutes of trade and then collapsed.

Focus Amidst The Chaos

The analysis links above are a reminder; as the chaos increases, focus is to remain on price action itself.

Let the market tell us its (own) next probable direction.

All of which brings us to the chart.

Financial Sector XLF, Daily

The zoom area shows at least three contact points on a possible trendline (Wed, Thu, Fri).

Short position XLF-25-08, entered early on Thursday, and pyramided late on Friday (not advice, not a recommendation).

Expectations, Next Week

Obviously, the expectation is for continued downside. We’ll probably know late on Sunday, if that’s likely to happen.

The XLF is labeled as EXTO (extended trading hours) eligible. If there’s even a hint of (sustained) upside pressure, the exit may come as early as Sunday night (not advice, not a recommendation)

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bank Melt-Down … The Start?

October 17, 2025 By in Banking, Financial Sector, Positions, UBER, UBER-25-04, XLF, XLF-25-08, ZeroHedge

Deja Vu

Has the melt-down smoke cleared, or was this week just the first Dominoe to fall?

The most recent post on the banking sector is here.

From that, we had:

“Financial sector XLF, has topped, reversed …”

The initial (nascent) downtrend was broken to the upside; short position XLF-25-07, exited with a small gain.

Then, we had this week.

The sidebar on yesterday’s post, shows a new short; XLF-25-08 (not advice, not a recommendation).

The update was about plans before the close. In the final minutes of trade, we have Uber short; UBER-25-04 (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll discuss both positions with charts over the weekend.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas Upside Pressure

October 5, 2025 By in Corn, Natural Gas, Positions, UNG, UNG-25-01, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Rally Into Winter?

The technical position of Nat-Gas (UNG) suggests conditions are in place for upside demand into the winter months (not advice, not a recommendation).

Some type of (seasonal) nat-gas rally is typical but not guaranteed.

Adding to that, the anomaly in June of 2023, since prices had come down so much, naturally, they just had to go higher.

Speculators positioned accordingly, creating a massive imbalance, link here.

Obviously, the increase in price never happened.

Natural Gas ETF, UNG, Weekly Close

Now, over two-years later, there may be a bullish set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

This set-up looks very similar to CORN.

The latest CORN update included the potential for a retrace into a Wyckoff spring; last report, linked here.

Depending on price action, we’ll discuss that, this week.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Margin Debt … $1-Trillion

September 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, IBB, IWM, IYR, LABD, LABD-25-11, Positions, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI, XLF, ZeroHedge

When it Implodes

Is the bell ringing?

Is this it?

In the pre-market, SPY, DIA, XLF, QQQs, all-time highs.

Meanwhile, beneath the surface, it’s getting a bit ‘uncomfortable’.

One Trillion in margin debt as reported here and here.

The Ones To Watch

While all eyes are focused on the leaders (above), at least three markets are not participating:

Real Estate, IYR, Russell IWM, biotech, IBB, and XBI.

From a Wyckoff perspective, for short candidates, these are the ones to watch (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech, XBI

As stated in the prior update, XBI may have formed a triple top within and ‘up-thrust’, link here.

The obvious areas to watch for today’s session, are yesterday’s high and low.

A new high puts the up-thrust into question; new low, adds (a small) confirmation to reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279