Ventas … Rolling Over

November 10, 2021 By in The Speck, VTR

Demographic Impacts & Price Action

The very first sentence at the Ventas website, linked here (under ‘portfolio’ statements) may no longer be true.

With ‘official’ data essentially suspect, we won’t know what’s left of the ‘ageing population’ until far in the future.

This winter (what used to be the regular flu season) will/should give some indication of just how much the customer base of Ventas has literally disappeared.

Looks like price action has already decided and is rolling over … even while the overall markets continue to press at or near new highs.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Sellers Exhausted ?

November 8, 2021 By in DUST, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners 1 Comment

According To The Latest Propaganda

It has to be this way.

As counter-intuitive as it sounds, for there to be a significant downside reversal in gold (GLD), the vast majority if not nearly all traders, speculators, and investors need to be on the wrong side of the trade.

Getting that crowd positioned without them realizing it, or being plain hypnotized like our asylum escapees, the gold bulls, helps get articles like this accepted by the masses.

The daily chart of gold proxy GLD, shows the potential target area for reversal.

This area has been a reversal target for months … since mid-September.

Working the markets in this way, that is, identifying a potential future condition for trend change, allows one to think about how it’s all going to go down.

Of course, consistent, incessant, propaganda along with bullish (asylum) hysteria is a must. 🙂

Just to be fair, sometimes and on a rare occasion, the crowd is right.

With that in mind, we’ll have to see how GLD price action behaves if/when it breaks through resistance.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Random Notes

November 7, 2021 By in Random Notes, The Speck, Usual Suspects

The Usual Suspects For The Week

No. 1

Only The Beginning

Probably the best example thus far of what lies ahead.

At this site’s location in Central Texas, there’s been a so-called ‘clinic’ over the weekend.

A clinic to provide ‘protection’ to any that are still (at this late date) stupid enough to believe standard media reports.

There’s no joy in being correct about this subject.

However, at the same time and over the months … now running into years, attempts have been made to get the word out.

Way back in May of 2020, this update was published before most anything was fully known.

The conclusions came from intuition (discernment), coupled with empirical observation.

Family members have been notified. Church members notified; attempting to find anyone that would listen.

The typical response was:

‘I don’t want to talk about that right now.’

‘I don’t believe that.‘

‘You’re not a qualified source’.

So, what can you do?

Well, what this author’s doing, is providing leadership to those who want it.

That means, recognizing what’s coming (or what’s likely), positioning or trading in the markets for potential gain.

No. 2

The Real Bull Market

Right around mid-year last year, the product at this link was priced at $12.95.

That product is no longer available from the supplier as can be seen from the comment:

Going to this link, shows the product is not even listed.

If we go to this link, that same product if you can find it, now ranges from $49.94, to $119.95.

That’s an increase of 286% to 826%, in about eighteen months.

Going to this link and forwarding to time stamp 6:12, might get to the crux of why the product is not available or only available at a near 1,000%, increase in price.

No. 3

Keep It Simple … Be Proficient

In line with No. 2, we have this personal anecdote.

A couple of years ago, your author won a “Top Shot” contest at this location.

All told, the entire number of contestants was somewhere around thirty. At least two, were former or active military.

From my recollection, not one of them had what’s termed a 1911. That’s what I brought … along with one spare magazine that I carried in my pocket.

I did not have all the accoutrement gear they had; the khakis, the BDU’s, the boots … none of that.

I was in shorts and an Oxford-type shirt.

I did bring my Bianchi holster that I bought in 1984. So, I had that going for me. 🙂

Remember this?

Yes, it’s just a movie but it gets a point across. Proficiency equates to performance and that equates to survival.

If you have read this far, it’s likely you’re in the crowd that’s likely to survive or at least not go down without giving it your best.

Winning the contest proved that looks don’t amount for much when in the clutch.

What’s going on in one’s head along with the ability to carry it out, is the deciding factor.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Exxon: Higher, Still ?

November 6, 2021 By in DUG, Oil & Gas, XOM, XOP

Major Resistance At XOM: 69 – 70

XOM’s the largest cap in the sector. We’ll use it as the proxy.

Last update has us exiting a short via DUG (not advice, not a recommendation) and standing aside for now.

It’s no secret the overall markets are insane … possibly in some kind of massive blow-off, FOMO top.

At the same time, they look like they’re ‘thinning-out’; that is, only a few are participating in the upward launch.

It’s a bearish warning

Thinning-out, tends to happen at the end or near the end of bull markets.

Looking For The Short

The big money’s made on the downside with down moves being two or three times faster.

The Daily closing chart of XOM above shows it’ still grinding itself higher.

Trend lines below say the upside may be reaching a limit:

If we zoom-in, it looks like there’s significant resistance at the 69 – 70 area for XOM … if it gets that far.

Looking For The News

With the current instabilities, world events, food supply, energy supply, earthquakes, volcanoes, we could get some kind of upset to launch the oil sector higher.

It may not happen.

If it does, that could be the time to re-enter short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Update: Exit DUG

November 5, 2021 By in DUG, Oil & Gas, Positions 1 Comment

DUG Pressing The Lows … Standing Aside

Although this site is not a ‘service’, it is in good taste to be forthcoming on our market moves.

As said yesterday, there’s a lot of froth at the top. We’re certainly not going to hold a losing position into the weekend.

Exit was performed on DUG as shown.

Analysis to follow

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil: Froth At The Top

November 4, 2021 By in DUG, MRNA, Oil & Gas, Positions, XOM, XOP

XOP Down, XOM Up

Oil sector proxy XOP, posted outside-down (key reversal) while Exxon (XOM) closed higher.

If we’re in the middle of a reversal, this is normal.

Parts of the sector are already heading lower while typically, the larger caps are the last to complete the change.

This interview with Carter Worth, even though it’s short at only two-minutes thirty seconds, paints not-so-good picture.

He says in a typical scenario that’s repeated twice since the late April ’20 lows, oil has declined by 16% – 20%.

When asked how the equities would do, he hesitates, then says ‘It’s not worth the risk [to be long]’.

It’s a polite way to say they’re likely to get whacked.

Moderna (MRNA)

By now, everybody’s heard the news on Moderna.

Trouble for Moderna was spotted a while back and discussed in this post … along with a prediction that class-action may be forthcoming.

Our stopwatch is still ticking.

Positions

The account positions are short Oil & Gas XOP, using DUG as the vehicle (not advice, not a recommendation).

So far, its been a lot of banging around without much progress either way. However, at this point, a new low for DUG, below today’s low would signal trouble for the short side.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Exxon Breaks Trendline

November 3, 2021 By in DUG, Oil & Gas, Positions, XOM, XOP

Sector Reversal Case Builds

While the overall markets move higher, XOP continues lower and Exxon (XOM) just broke its trend-line to the downside.

XOM is the largest cap in the Oil & Gas Exploration Sector.

We’re using XOP as the proxy and DUG for leveraged inverse.

Over the next day or so, we could get an underside test of the break. However, it was not really dramatic.

With all eyes on other markets like S&P, Dow, Q’s and so on, XOM may just decide to drift on lower …

Positioning:

At this point, there’s nothing that says to cover shorts by exiting DUG (not advice, not a recommendation).

The trade is progressing. So, we’re going to leave it alone.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Stealth’ Reversal, Oil

November 2, 2021 By in David Weis, DUG, Oil & Gas, Positions, Wyckoff, XOP

XOP Lower Open, Signals Weakness

Nobody’s Looking

A higher XOP open would have probably been a short set-up (DUG) failure.

However, that’s not what happened.

The open was lower but then price action went on to post a new daily high above yesterday’s.

At this juncture, the short set-up is still valid (not advice, not a recommendation).

How can a new daily high be acceptable for a short position?

Repeating Set-Up:

Back in August this post was created to help document a market behavior that’s probably been repeating since the beginning.

My former mentor, David Weis used to call it ‘Spring to Up-thrust’, using Wyckoff’s terminology.

The fact the set-up’s been repeating for decades, if not a century or more, is definitive proof traditional valuations and fundamentals have nothing to do with actual price movement.

That’s a topic for another time.

XOP Analysis:

We’ll start with an un-marked XOP daily chart:

It doesn’t look like much is going on. So, let’s zoom into the far right side using the 15-minute, below:

Ok, what am I supposed to see?

Marking up the chart, we have the following:

Once we have the correct annotations, it’s obvious XOP just posted a ‘Spring to Up-thrust’.

True, it’s on a minor time frame like the 15-minute; however, it does give a clue XOP, could be in for a more significant and longer-term reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning:

If XOP is somehow able to post another new daily high during this session or subsequent, most likely it would be time to exit our short position (via DUG, not advice, not a recommendation).

For now, the expectation’s for continued oscillation below today’s high … while XOP figures out if that’s all there is for the up-side.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil Sector Tests Reversal

November 1, 2021 By in DUG, Oil & Gas, Positions, XOP

Deep Test For XOP

XOP is either in a deep test at the Fibonacci 76.4%, retrace level (distance between black lines), or it’s getting ready to post new recovery highs.

Volume was moderate with no overt indication either way.

A higher open at the next session would most likely indicate trouble for a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, one has to realize we’re at extremes in price and most likely sentiment as well.

Looking at the weekly gives a better perspective:

Positioning:

We’re keeping the finger close to the sell button (for inverse DUG) but are not convinced the short set-up has been invalidated (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price action’s at a confluence of trend lines and resistance. Some type of trend confusion is to be expected.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Random Notes

October 31, 2021 By in Prechter, Random Notes, Stew Peters, Usual Suspects

The Usual Suspects For The Week

No. 1

Bye, Bye, Bullpen

It looks like the word ‘bullpen‘ is inappropriate … to someone at least.

Just when you think it couldn’t get any more stupid … it all goes to the next level.

Jerimiah Babe may have the right attitude.

With so many unprepared and focused on the wrong things (like the name of a baseball warm-up area), when the bottom drops out, there’re going to be once in a lifetime investment opportunities.

No. 2

Gold To Soar … Yet Again

Looks like the boys (and girls) at Kitco are back at it again. Gold is going up for sure this time … honest.

At time stamp 15:08, the female interviewer really puts the screws to her guest.

She does not believe a word he’s saying … so, there’s that.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the confiscators may be gearing up for another 1930s style Executive Order.

It probably won’t matter either way.

If you have to show your ‘papers’ to sell gold at the local bullion dealer, what’s the point of owning it?

No. 3

Escape From New York

Come this Monday, we’re going to see what happens when approximately 25% of a major city’s police, fire and healthcare employees don’t show up for work.

Time to take notes.

No. 4

Drinking Beer Outside The Liquor Store

Looks likes it’s just a normal thing if you’re in the Ukraine (time stamp 15:08)

No. 5

In a Knife Fight … No Rules !!!

There are no rules anymore. Bullet item No. 6, below shows the confiscation plans are moving forward.

As a caveat, the financial services industry. i.e. ‘wealth management’, is operating with a paradigm that no longer exists.

One of the objectives of this site, is to offer an alternative to the group-think of wealth managers.

Certification presents itself as an authority figure … just like Fox News presents itself as the alternative.

In fact, those in control own both sides of the narrative.

Does anyone really think FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority) is going to allow a wealth manager to make his clients overtly wealthy?

Even if that manager knew what to do, he’s hamstrung by regulations like ‘Fiduciary Responsibility‘; effectively guaranteeing the person with the least amount of knowledge (i.e., the client) is in control.

No. 6

Confiscate The IRA/401K

A topic that has been discussed literally for years by my firm, is confiscation of retirement accounts.

The following is a cut-and-paste from this link which is password protected:

Note the date.

Written over two years ago.

_______________________________________________________

4/7/19

Government To Confiscate IRAs?  It’s Easy.

There has been enough time for the American working (and saving) public to take the lessons of the 2007- 2009 meltdown and act accordingly.

One of those lessons would have been to realize just how close they came to having their IRAs confiscated.

Personally, I’m surprised that any of the following links below are still active.  Well, who’s looking at this stuff anyway?  Certainly, not the general public:

Dems Target

Fact Check

Congress considering

Government to Confiscate

Confiscation of Private Retirement

Even in the Wall St. Journal:  Targeting your 401K

After reading several of these reports in 2009 and later, it did not take long for me to set the plan in motion to cash out … completely.  I took the 10% penalty, while it’s still 10% and liquidated my accounts (not advice, not a recommendation).

The rest of the population?  Not so much.

I think it was Prechter who laid out just how easy it is for the government to seize IRA accounts.  It’s basically a two step process.

Step 1. 

The market drops 50% to 70%.  Remember, the drop from 2007 to the bottom in 2009 was 58%.

Step 2.

Declare a state of emergency (executive order) for the working population and move in to “save” the IRA accounts from more devastation.  

The result would involve a stiff withdrawal penalty (say 50%) and to “protect” the accounts from further losses, IRAs can only invest in U.S. Treasuries or Bonds.

______________________________________________________

End of cut-and-paste

The scenario may not happen exactly as detailed above. The Stew Peters link (repeated here) shows there are several ways to access the IRA accounts (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279