Monthly Archives: September 2021

Lowe’s … Re-Visited

September 20, 2021 By in Anton Kreil, Dr. Elder, LOW

Mid Session

Spring, To Up-Thrust, Completes

The daily chart of LOW (above), is how it looked one month ago. This report highlighted, certain market behaviors repeat.

Now, we have an apparent up-thrust completion.

There may be other equities in a similar (up-thrust) position as of this post … One such potential is Carmax (KMX).

Opinion:

Successful trading, is a game of attrition.

The LOW set-up, that looks to be complete (for a short position) has probably lost all market participant interest at this point.

The i-phone crowd, looking for the next fix, is not going to wait around and monitor for a month to see if price action follows a well tested set-up pattern.

After things get moving though … they’ll be back, as Dr. Elder states; ‘being both lazy, and late.’

Summary:

We’re not shorting LOW (not advice, not a recommendation) as there’re plenty of opportunities with leveraged inverse funds (again, not advice, not a recommendation).

The point of this update is to show, once again, the market, LOW in this case, has gone from ‘spring to up-thrust’; a repeating price action phenomena.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

September 19, 2021 By in Jerimiah Babe, Random Notes, Uneducated Economist, Usual Suspects

The Usual Suspects For The Week

No. 1

Starsky & Hutch

This is the link to the original pilot episode.

Check out what ‘Elijah’, the trash-diving bum, has to say about world events at time stamp: 26:58.

Instead of taking his ‘hand-out’ to go buy booze, he runs down the alley and offers to buy coffee for his friend.

No. 2

Bible Study

(skip if you think it’s a ‘myth’ … good luck to you)

Luke 22: 31 – 32

31 And the Lord said, Simon, Simon, behold, Satan hath desired to have you, that he may sift you as wheat:

32 But I have prayed for thee, that thy faith fail not: and when thou art converted, strengthen thy brethren.

I guess it’s quite a stomach punch to be told you’re about to be handed over and spiritually torn limb-from-limb.

But take heart … the master of the universe he has held up his own hand against Satan (for you, Peter) and has said No!

Anyone with half of a spiritual wing-nut can feel the battle between good and evil raging … even now.

No. 3

Panic Into Junk Bonds

You can’t make this stuff up.

Us old-timers, have been here at least several times before. This time around, we intuitively know, there is (will be) no bottom.

No. 4

Jerimiah Babe Is Out! … Of California

I guess it took the wake-up call of a rigged recall election to tip it over the edge.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Goes Down … Stays Down

September 18, 2021 By in DRV, IYR, Livermore, Real Estate

Livermore’s Rules; Going Short

From his 1923 book (Reminiscences), Livermore’s rules for going short were fairly blunt:

‘I’m not interested in shorting a stock until it goes down and stays down’

It’s possible that’s what we’ve got with real estate, IYR.

This past trading week was IYR’s opportunity to regain balance and attempt to move higher.

It didn’t happen.

Instead, we got a struggle for several days; ultimately breaking lower, late during the Friday session.

Note the volume increased markedly from the day prior.

Summary:

We’re short this sector (not advice, not a recommendation) via DRV. There are times were significant reversals start slow and take time to build … this could be one of those.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Russell 2000 … Channel ?

September 17, 2021 By in IWM, Russell 2000, TZA

Late Session

Possible Trading Channel Forming

The past six months shows the Russell 2000 (IWM) in choppy and impulsive action; both up and down.

The last eight trading days have seen that choppy action begin to exhibit a hint of order.

It does not look like much … until you put in a trend-line .. or two:

Adding to the intrigue; channel width is at Fibonacci 8-Days.

If today’s session closes lower (no guarantees) and posts a new daily low (below 220.26), it adds weight the Russell may be in the very early stages of trending lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Changes Character

September 16, 2021 By in DUST, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners 2 Comments

Mid Session

Another Bell Rings

Gold (GLD) was on track to continue higher into a potential up-thrust … right up to yesterday.

That’s when the character of price action changed.

Action suddenly had a down day with no buoyancy. That was the clue something else is at work.

Today, we saw the result.

At this juncture, with world events picking up yet again, we probably just entered or are about to enter a deflation impulse.

Summary:

The gold and mining sector continues to be chocked full of delusional bulls and rabid hyper-inflationists.

Just take a cursory look at YouTube sites that continue to ‘stack’. As repeated many times over the past year the ‘hyperinflation’ narrative is just not happening.

Food price increases along with fuel and shipping, are all related to a controlled demolition of the supply chain.

It’s not hyper-inflation.

It really does not take much research effort to figure that part out.

If there is a trade here, we’re going to leave it (not advice, not a recommendation) and just watch to see where the carnage goes.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Real Estate … Slipping Away

September 15, 2021 By in DRV, IYR, SRS

Mid Session

‘Frog In The Pot’

Once price action enters back into a previous trading range, the clock starts ticking.

Since IYR’s at the upper bound of the congestion zone, there’s still a possibility it can right itself and pull away to the upside.

Mid Session

During the mid-session just now, price action is pushing slightly higher and testing the underside of the range (upper blue line).

This is normal behavior … and we’re going to wait it out (not advice, not a recommendation).

For IYR to break out to the upside, there would have to be some major demand to launch IYR prices higher; just where would that demand come from?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Plug has been Pulled

September 14, 2021 By in 1929, DRV, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPY, TZA 1 Comment

Mid Session

92-Years Almost To The Day

Barring any new highs in the S&P, which seems less and less likely, the market has bookended two historic extremes.

September 3rd, 1929, was the peak back then; September 2nd, 2021, is the peak now.

This site has said many times, if we’re doing our job right, whenever the big reversal comes, we’ll already be in position (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, far that has proven to be correct; having gone short via DRV and TZA during the past week.

This down move is still very young. It’s almost imperceptible and could somehow be negated.

However, with each passing day when there’s no attempt or unsuccessful attempts at new highs, downside probability continues to build.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Lower ? … Not Yet

September 13, 2021 By in GLD, GOLD 14 Comments

Mid Session

Gold (GLD) Pivoting Higher

The last update on gold (GLD) has us expecting an up-thrust (reversal) condition.

Even though price action immediately pushed away from the resistance area, there’s still a possibility GLD is on track to recover and move higher.

Downward action in GLD has stalled and looks like it’s building energy for an attempted breakout.

If and when we get an up-thrust … that’s the time to expect fireworks in the mining sector.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

September 12, 2021 By in Random Notes, Usual Suspects

The Usual Suspects For The Week

No. 1

Buffett Buys Silver

Maybe if I ask Buffett a really smart question, I’ll be rich like him.

Not even two minutes into this charade, you can see the disgust for the proletariat.

We don’t need input from Bombards Body Language to tell us these ‘elites’ have absolute contempt for the crowd.

No. 2

Endless Wars

No, it’s not successful wars we’re after, it’s endless wars.

The quotes in the attached link (filmed in 2011) are straight out of The Creature From Jekyll Island.

No. 3

People Still Follow Cramer

Similar to No. 1, above, some people never graduate away from the milk bottle.

Dan (time stamp 4:02) gives us his own take on Cramer … complete with actual input form a broker.

No. 4

Rubber Chicken

Rubber chicken at time stamp 4:48.

Slow moving Bassett Hound at time stamp: 7:59

No. 5

“I was the one”

Enemy Chivalry During WWII.

Go ahead; see if you can make it through this presentation without getting a lump in your throat.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Selling At The Top

September 10, 2021 By in IWM, Russell 2000, TZA

Late Session

If The Fed’s Doing It, Shouldn’t We?

You don’t want to be left holding the bag.

David at The Money GPS has an excellent update, linked here.

Looks like they really do ring a bell at the top.

However, does this news story (The Fed selling everything) corroborate with price action?

In the case of the Russell 2000 (IWM) above, the answer appears to be yes.

Price action got itself into and up-thrust condition, rolled over, then tested and is now continuing lower.

A short position was opened in IWM (via TZA) during this session with a stop at the TZA day’s low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Yesterday’s short on IYR (via DRV) continues to post green and is confirming the overall markets may be peaking and reversing simultaneously.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.