Monthly Archives: April 2025

SOXX … Stop, Drop, And Roll

April 30, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, Federal Reserve, Semiconductors, SOXX, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Then, There’s Carvana

The SOXX, hit resistance, stopped, dropped, and could be rolling over for more downside … or not.

Maybe there’s something else developing.

Something like a set-up to penetrate resistance, creating a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

The magenta dashed line is the 38.2%, retrace for the entire downside move; from the top on July 11th, 2024, to the lows on April 7th.

Note the potential Fibonacci time correlation, just before the Fed announcement on May 7th.

As with Carvana (CVNA), we’re nearing a potential inflection.

Also note, Carvana has dropped from the current resistance area (around 240) making that level the more probable area for an up-thrust, rather than yesterday’s 310-location (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Nears Potential Set-Up

April 29, 2025 By in CVNA, David Weis, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 3 Comments

Two Times?

Caravana’s earnings are coming up on May 7th, after hours.

Will it print (like last time) above resistance to the 310-area?

If it does, will that action hold unto the regular session the next day?

The reason it’s important as we’ll see below, a push above resistance creates the potential set-up: Spring-To-Up-Thrust, link here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The earnings release just so happens to be Fibonacci 55 (trading) days from the prior release.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘Short’ Bounce

April 28, 2025 By in Dollar, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-10, Positions, UUP 1 Comment

Nuance, In The Retrace

A nuance in price action can have (significant) meaning or be obliterated at the next session.

It’s no secret the dollar, gold, and the miners, are all at extremes.

The dollar is down, gold is stretched in a potential blow-off, and miners (GDXJ), just posted action that may be important (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

The last two days have printed a low of 60.13, but this is not the low of Wednesday, the 23rd. That low is 60.05, below the last two day’s lows.

Why is that important?

The last two days have not made new daily lows, so have not created a potential price action reversal (pushing below 60.05, and reversing).

We can also see, today’s bounce is to 23.6%, while last Thursday’s bounce was to 38.2%.

This all may mean something or not.

With the extremes noted at the outset, it may not take long to find out if the distinctions are important (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

April 27, 2025 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-10, Positions, Trump, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Gold & Silver, Update

We’re just about two and a half hours into the Sunday, overnight session.

Once again, it’s not necessarily about ‘what’s happening’, but ‘what’s not happening’.

Both Gold and Siver June contracts, GDM 25 and SIM25 respectively, are trading lower but have not made a new daily low … yet.

As of this post, silver is closer to a new daily low than gold.

The 24-Hour Market

As a reminder, some equities and ETFs are now essentially trading 24-hours a day (five days a week).

Leveraged Inverse Fund (for GDX), DUST is one of them.

The close on Friday for DUST, was 29.91. It’s now at 29.94, indicating some slight upward pressure (down on GDX).

It may be the immediate (upward) pressure on gold has been mitigated by this report (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold’s Parabolic Top

April 26, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-10, Positions, SILJ, SLV, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Mass Liquidations?

During gold’s (GLD) way to the top, or potential top, it has posted gap-higher, after gap-higher.

That is, until now.

This past week, it has come down to fill one of the gaps.

Is this the start of other downside fills?

Before we look at the chart of GLD, let’s review a prior commodity blow-off top.

We’ll chose silver (SLV), for this example.

Silver SLV, 3-Day

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

First, this is what a commodity blow-off looks like.

Second, once this happens with volume, there’s been a significant ‘changing of hands’; it takes a long time to recover.

In fact, here we are, fourteen years later and silver SLV, has yet to reach the levels of early May 2011.

Prices are still far below, even with non-stop propaganda, experts, and grifters cheering it on.

Now, we’ll put up the chart of gold GLD.

Gold GLD, Weekly

The last time GLD posted a Force Index of 1.8B, was back in 2011, just before the last major top.

It’s important to note, the huge reading in Force Index, did not come at the exact top. It came before the top.

We’re in a similar situation. The massive Force Index reading has already posted (not advice, not a recommendation).

Then, two weeks later, we have near record liquidations in the GLD, ETF, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Are The Miners Exhausted?

April 25, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-10, Positions, SLV 1 Comment

We’re About To Find Out

It’s been a wild ride for gold, silver, and the miners.

This week, gold (GLD) posted a weekly reversal bar as did senior and junior miners, GDX, GDXJ.

Silver miners SILJ, posted an up-thrust reversal after meeting the target identified in this update.

For over a year, this site, if not outright negative on silver (SLV), has at least been ‘non-bullish’ as the metal can’t seem to get out of its own way.

So far, nothing has changed on that front (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

With gold posting what looks to be a typical commodity blow-off top, it leaves the miners in a potentially vulnerable position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Negative Waves …’

April 24, 2025 By in Charles Nenner, Great Depression 2.0, Greg Hunter

Only Good News

Greg Hunter’s interview with Dr. Charles Nenner, fairly well sums up the intellect of the typical ‘investor’.

The entire 36:59-minute presentation, is worth viewing several times over.

The summation: He’s stunned the typical investor doesn’t reject the mainstream, educate themselves and develop market experience.

He just can’t figure out why ‘everyone’ just accepts the standard news following herd.

Market Cycles

The bottom line (from him), we’re in a depression-era down cycle.

That’s all there is to it.

Ignoring the facts, only wanting positive news, no ‘negative waves‘, does not fit the current market cycle (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Selling The Healthcare … Rip

April 23, 2025 By in Goldman, Great Depression 2.0, Greg Hunter, Positions, XLV, XLV-25-01, ZeroHedge Tags:

Wedge Formation

It’s a bear market; we have non-stop headline induced whipsaws, never-before seen extremes, massive downdrafts followed by (face-ripping) short covering squeezes.

Then, there’s the ‘fatigue’:

“Investor Fatigue Has Set In”: Goldman’s Desk Summarizes The Key Market Themes, link here.

Judging from the links below, the professionals (seem to) have an idea of what’s likely; the other side (the retail side), remains clueless or confused.

‘Depression Cycle Is Here’ Charles Nenner Warns “It Will Be Much Worse In 2026”, link here.

As Professional Traders Panic Sell, Retail Investors Just Can’t Stop Buying., link here.

The recent sharp recovery has shown us where to go for short-side opportunity.

One such sector, is the healthcare industry (not advice, not a recommendation).

Health Care Select Sector SPDR, XLV, Daily

The wedge is obvious.

Typical classical analysis market guidelines for wedge:

Whatever direction was the entry, that’s the (most likely) direction for exit (not advice, not a recommendation).

If there is a downside exit, we’ll discuss measured move(s) at that time.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Off-The-Chart

April 22, 2025 By in GLD, GLL, Gold & Silver 1 Comment

It’s The Inverse GLL

Are the professional traders telling us, ‘This is it’?

We’re scarcely 90-minutes into the session and it’s the Inverse Gold Fund GLL, that’s off the chart.

Off the chart, with unprecedented volume.

Leveraged Inverse Gold, GLL, Daily

At 15.5 million shares (currently) and GLL price of (approx.) 10.5, it represents and exchange of over $160 million; the day is just getting started.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Basic Materials … The Set-Up

April 21, 2025 By in Basic Materials, DJUSBM, Positions, Wyckoff, XBI, XLB-25-01

Under The Radar

Nobody talks about Basic Materials, so let’s take a look.

Like the rest of the major indices, the past few weeks have seen a downdraft, followed by a retrace.

The important part of this sector has been the attempted breakout and failure.

We’re using SPDR, ETF, XLB, as the proxy for DJUSBM.

Basic Materials XLB, Daily

For students of Wyckoff, it’s a typical ‘Up-Thrust’ set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

Opened short XBI, as Trade XBI-25-01, with stop at the day’s session high, 80.69 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279