Category Archives: Car Questions Answered

Carvana … Test & Reverse

August 19, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, CVNA-25-11, KMX, Livermore, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

On A Closing Basis

The goings-on, in the car market, new or used, are unprecedented, link here.

The video is clear; the market has already imploded.

Carmax (KMX) seems to be an accurate reflection of that, with it being down over -62%, from its all-time highs.

However, for some mysterious reason that’s (almost) sure to come out later, Carvana, is only down only -17%, from its all-time highs.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

On a close basis, CVNA tested resistance, posted an up-thrust on the 18th, then reversed.

Adding to the intrigue, that up-thrust was on Fibonacci Day 13, from all-time highs.

Referring back to Livermore’s criteria, link here, if the trade meets requirements (i.e., up-thrust), then execute.

In this case, that meant to go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short trade: CVNA-25-11, with stop at today’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s Incredible Numbers

July 31, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, KMX

Exhaustion Gap?

With rival CarMax, down nearly -63%, from its all-time highs, increasing loan-loss reserves, and boots-on-the-ground reporting like this, it’s interesting that somehow, Carvana seems to have transcended the fundamentals. 🙂

Or is it really as Jesse Livermore used to say, ‘all about the numbers’.

No, not the earnings, P/E, or any other ‘financial’ metric, but numbers like Fibonacci, as we’ll see below.

Carvana, CVNA, Daily

We’re still in pre-market trading with about thirty minutes to go before the open.

If CVNA, opens at its current level, it’s right at the 261.8%, Fibonacci projection and all-time highs.

Short interest on CVNA is currently listed at 9.36%, here.

If the open is at the level shown, it’s likely to clear out some (or most) that are short (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s Top & Reversal

July 25, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

‘Evidence of A Struggle’

Yesterday’s Carvana breakdown, was ‘Day 13’, of a week’s long struggle at recent highs.

We’re about thirty minutes before the open; CVNA, is up in the pre-market, set to test the breakdown.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

There’s plenty of anecdotal evidence, the car market has (already) imploded. The latest installment is here.

‘Delinquencies at the highest, ever’

From a price action standpoint, anything can happen.

CVNA, could just blip higher at the open and reverse.

It could spend the whole day at the test level.

It could blow through to new daily highs … literally, anything.

Risk Defined

From a risk standpoint on a short, it’s well defined; yesterday’s session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note that CVNA, earnings are set for next week.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

June 29, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Car Questions Answered, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Interest Rates, Positions, SLV, UNG, WMT, WMT-25-03

Bonds & The Economy

Not getting much attention in the media yet, is what looks like a slow (nascent), upside reversal, of long-bonds.

Here’s an excellent description of what’s going on with the yield curve, link here.

However, there’s one potential error (depending on data used), in the link above, the job market.

Real unemployment numbers can be found here.

It says, we’re already at ‘depression era’ levels of 25% unemployment.

If anyone’s skeptical of alternate numbers, the official numbers have already been proven to be ‘in-question’.

One of the best examples of ‘official’ data, or lack thereof, is this report.

What’s a million jobs or so, between friends. 🙂

With mass layoffs starting, also, here and here, that 25% number above, is likely to increase significantly.

We can even add some anecdotal evidence, link here.

Strategy, Tactics, Focus

The price action of the market itself, is telling us where to go for opportunity.

Upside may still be there, if one wants to position in the A.I. bubble (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, for over eighteen months, this site’s been profitable only positioning to the short-side (UNG, the exception) and sees no reason to join the crowd buying into the A.I. mania (not advice not a recommendation).

The current focus is on WMT, a sleeper, not-doing-much, for years, that may be about to get interesting.

Currently short as WMT-25-03, with stop at last week’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Closes The ‘Gap’

June 20, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, CVNA-25-05, KMX, Positions

Good News … Maybe

Carvana was up today on good news from rival CarMax, link here.

Today’s action in CVNA (segment at left), closes the gap (blue arrow) discussed in this update.

Adding intrigue, we have links like this.

Currently short CVNA, (CVNA-25-05), with stop near today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Assessing The (market) Damage

April 5, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, DIA, IBB, IWM, IYM, IYR, KMX, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, XLF, XOP 1 Comment

Sifting Through The Rubble

There are sure to be plenty of post-mortems over the weekend; usual suspects giving us their assessment on what’s already happened. 🙂

Sometimes the question, is not ‘what’s happened’, but ‘what has not happened’.

That’s where the opportunity may lie.

Market Implosion

Over the past week, there were wide price bars, with action unstable in all major indices (ETFs): DIA, IBB, IWM, IYM, IYR, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, XLF, and XOP.

However, what did not implode (completely), are the car dealerships; specifically, CarMax and Carvana.

For this update, we’ll look at CarMax.

CarMax, KMX, Weekly Close

On a close basis, KMX, has bounced off the lower wedge boundary and is near the resistance area (magenta line).

Price action could be positively biased in the coming week as a result of ‘tax refund’ car buying (not advice, not a recommendation)

According to ‘Car Questions Answered‘, it’s a yearly ‘thing’.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s Short-Interest Drops

March 28, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA 1 Comment

After The Top, Lower

Even as price reached its after-hours high of 310, on February 19th, and posted down ever since, short interest continues to decline.

As BigCharts reports, short-interest is now at 6.5%.

First, it was 33% short, then it dropped to 10%, then 7.8%, and now 6.5%, all the while, it looks like we’ve passed the top (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last update showed a trading channel that has since been negated. So, what’s price action doing now?

Carvana CVNA, Daily

As of this post (10:47 a.m., EST) price action has yet to define another channel … if there is one.

What we do have, is a Fibonacci time sequence in effect thus far.

At this juncture, we’re far away from the magenta (target) oval and Fibonacci Day 34.

However, as outlined by Car Questions Answered, this time of the year, typically has tax refund purchasing.

So, there’s a (possible) tailwind to the upside.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The CarMax Question

December 19, 2024 By in Biotech, Car Questions Answered, Interest Rates, KMX, Real Estate, Russell 2000 Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Something’s Not Right

If the future’s so bright for CarMax, with them beating estimates for earnings and revenue, link here, why did it sell-off immediately after the open?

Trading, (as of 12:20 p.m., EST) currently at 85.15, below well-established resistance.

As we’ve seen by now, relying on financial numbers, any numbers, is akin to a ‘snipe hunt’ (remember those?).

The prior update on KMX, said this:

“Let’s see if KMX, uses earnings as an ‘excuse’ for launch to 38.2% retrace level (or higher).”

Adding to that, we had ‘boots on the ground’, like this.

Now, based on price action, we have the potential ‘false breakout’, exactly as was forecast, link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

CarMax KMX, Weekly

The breakout appears to be failing or has failed already (not advice, not a recommendation).

With other markets in full-blown melt-down like biotech, real estate, interest rates and the Russell, it’s possible CarMax adds one more economic reality to the mix no matter what the ‘numbers’ say (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Short Squeeze ‘Exhaustion’

December 8, 2024 By in Car Questions Answered, KMX, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Anybody Left, To Cover?

Has the market extracted just about all it can from the shorts?

Is the ‘consumer’ giving it the ‘last hurrah?

Are autos, real estate, about to implode?

When, will the plug be pulled?

The problem is, in the markets, when the plug (really) is pulled, it’s too late to get into a low-risk short position.

That work needs to be done ahead of time.

All of which, brings us to CarMax.

Company earnings are coming up in nine trading days, before the open.

CarMax KMX, Weekly

Let’s see if KMX, uses earnings as an ‘excuse’ for launch to 38.2% retrace level (or higher).

If or when that happens, it’s what happens next, that will tell us if there’s an opportunity to go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax Nears Breakout

December 3, 2024 By in Car Questions Answered, KMX, Wyckoff Tags: ,

A False Breakout?

A data-point of one, may not be significant unless that ‘data-point’, is repeated over and over.

That brings us to this link.

Do we have a ‘one-off’ event or is the data point being repeated?

To help answer, this site’s been monitoring what should be one of the fastest selling (used) cars in the market, Toyota Camry.

Scanning the CarMax inventory of Camry’s has the same cars (with minor changes) still for sale, since August, at elevated prices no -less.

Seems to corroborate the link above and makes you wonder what’s (really) happening?

With that, let’s move on to the potential opportunity.

CarMax KMX, Weekly

There’s a lot going on in this chart.”

“What do you see?”

The wedge is obvious.

Maybe a little more subtle until it’s pointed out, huge volume churn since the breakdown during the week of September 30th, 2022.

That’s over two-years of potential distribution.

From a Wyckoff standpoint using his ‘Cause and Effect’ analogy, whatever’s about to happen to KMX, it’s setting itself up for a potential, sustained, long-duration move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Earnings Release

Earnings scheduled for December 19th, before the open.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279