Category Archives: GDX

Newmont Breaks Lower

February 22, 2024 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Inflation, NEM, NVDA

But, What About ‘Inflation’ ?

With today’s earnings release, Newmont’s chance at an upside breakout has failed.

Include an earnings miss, dividend cut, and we have probabilities weighted for continued downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Reading the press releases, one gets the impression, Newmont’s battening down the hatches, preparing for a collapse.

If gold is supposed to launch higher, why all the divestiture, raising cash, paying down debt?

Miners Bear Market

The last update on the miners, link here, had the Juniors testing their trading channel.

Since then, price action drifted higher for one additional day, then reversed to the downside.

That’s where we are now.

To be fair, GDXJ price action has just filled a gap (as of 11:45 a.m., EST). From here, there could be some kind of upside attempt.

However, probabilities are low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Markets Go Berserk

While all eyes are on Nvidia’s (NVDA) last gasp of a delusional mania, the mining sector continues lower.

It’s quietly telling us there’s something wrong with the ‘inflation’ narrative (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

D.R. Horton ‘Rolls Over’

February 17, 2024 By in DHI, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Interest Rates, NVDA, QQQ, Real Estate, SLV, SOXX, SPY, TLT, ZeroHedge

When Real Estate Goes …

It’s been said, ‘when real estate goes, everything goes’.

Like a slow-motion train wreck, since late January, this site’s been watching the (potential) topping activity of D.R. Horton, DHI.

Now, DHI is reversing; coincident with the housing starts collapse, link here.

D.R. Horton, DHI Weekly Close

We’re right at the top of the ‘terminating wedge’.

Downside penetration and test will provide confirmation of the reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The major market indices appear to be topping out as well.

The SOXX, may have reversed. Trading was ‘outside-down’ during yesterday’s session.

The SPY, and QQQ, also posted outside-down.

The potential Nvidia, NVDA reversal (link here) shows that so far, that high has not been exceeded.

Rates Up, Not Down

Adding gasoline to the fire, part of this site’s strategy is rates are going higher, not lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

So far, we see that’s true with long bonds (TLT) reversing to the downside, yet again.

And Then … Gold

Let’s not leave out the latest bullish report on gold (and silver), link here.

Notice the bias … that silver’s cheap relative to gold.

How about the massive, multi-year, ‘non-confirmation‘ between gold and the other monetary metals.

If it was real 1980s style inflation, everything would be moving up in tandem … which it is not; something else is going on.

Is the mining sector, GDX, GDXJ, anticipating a price decline in gold?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners Test The ‘Implosion’

February 15, 2024 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST 1 Comment

Coming Back To Resistance

Less than seven trading hours after this update, the miners (GDXJ) imploded:

Price action collapsed -6.41%, in a single day.

Now, it’s early in the session (10:57 a.m., EST) and the Juniors have come back up to test that breakdown.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

Along with the upside test, we have a trading channel that’s clearly defined.

Even as this post is being created, price action is pulling back from the test, adding confirmation to the channel.

Typical short trading vehicles for the miners are DUST and JDST for Seniors and Juniors respectively (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners Break Down … Again

February 10, 2024 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST 2 Comments

A Strategic Bear Market

The gold/silver miners are breaking down, yet again.

The last update on GDXJ, link here, said to watch for a potential (bear market) reversal and upward correction.

We got the reversal, but it was weak, barely making it past a 23.6%, retrace before heading lower again.

Now, we’re in a ‘spot of bother’ as the Brits would say. 

The Juniors are at the edge of a multi-year wedge formation, ready to break lower.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Close

The chart is long-term, locating strategic updates on GDXJ.

Note: Update No. 4, is this one 🙂

No. 1: ’What’s Wrong’, link here. No. 2: ’Timeline’s End’, link here. No. 3: ’Failed Breakout’, link here.

What’s Next?

At this juncture, the wedge boundary, anything can happen. 

Typical vehicles for shorting the indices, GDX, GDXJ, are DUST, and JDST, respectively (not advice, not a recommendation).

If GDXJ, heads lower from here, we’ll discuss trendlines and a measured move in the next update.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Rates Rising … Miners Critical

January 25, 2024 By in DHI, DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Interest Rates, JDST, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Then, The Real Estate Bubble

The elephant in the room:

Rates are not going lower, they’re going higher; sooner rather than later (not advice, not a recommendation).

Yesterday, ZeroHedge reported the 5-yr auction was nasty with rates rising to near recent highs.

Today, we have yet another supply disruption impacting so-called ‘inflation’.

Couple that with an apparent real estate implosion.

DH Horton (DHI) down nearly – 12% in just days and holding steady in the pre-market session.

It looks like the bubble party is (finally) over.

Gold Miners To Catch Bid?

The miners are at another critical juncture.

The Juniors GDXJ, are up in the pre-market session (8:00 a.m., EST) and may be catching a flight-to-safety bid as parts of the markets top out and/or reverse.

That flight to safety may not last long as we’ll see below.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

Trading is up about 1% or 0.32 pts in the pre-market.

GDXJ, price action is at The Danger Point®. 

We are either in a reversal (Wyckoff spring) set-up or just a pause before posting lower.

If it’s a rally, the target area is shown (magenta oval); corresponding to a 61.8% retrace.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Miner Failures

January 20, 2024 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Inflation, JDST, ZeroHedge

One Failed Move, After Another

If it’s not working, get out or change sides.

For Junior Miners GDXJ, it’s the bullish case that’s not working.

But wait! What about ‘inflation’?

Here’s just one example of where the so-called ‘inflation’ is coming from: supply disruption and destruction.

Junior Gold Miners GDXJ, Weekly

As this post said, few things get more attention on The Street, than a failed move.

The chart shows at least three potential bullish set-ups that have failed.

Fail, fail, fail; what do we think GDXJ, will do at Monday’s open. Are we going higher?

Well, anything can happen; there’s a gap on the daily chart that could be filled. 

However, posting lower levels might be just getting started (not advice, not a recommendation).

Depending on Monday’s action we may have confirmation of a downside trend and channel.

More on that at the next update.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Interest Rate Snare

January 11, 2024 By in DUST, Ed Dowd, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Greg Hunter, JDST, SLV, Wyckoff

Manipulated Into The Trap

‘They [The Fed] are totally tricking the markets’ (time stamp 3:30), link here.

Yes, it’s a real chess game going on and the other side, makes up the rules.

This update presents that despite all the manipulation and head-fakes, significant market pivots in the miners were identified (correctly) with Wyckoff analysis.

That analysis, in turn, helped develop a long-term strategy (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Close

Three key points are shown on the chart. 

The first goes all the way back to October of 2020, link here. There’s something wrong with the miners.

Potential for another downward pivot, link here, was identified to-the-week, if not, to-the-day.

The subsequent move printed the most impulsive price action since the spike melt-down of early 2020.

Which brings us to today.

Another potential pivot has been identified, link here.

As of this post (11:20 a.m., EST) the Juniors GDXJ, continue to rachet lower.

The Long Term

As Ed Dowd points out in this interview, what’s happening now will affect us all for decades, if not centuries to come.

Therefore, it’s a good idea to have a long-term strategy.

From the above chart, it’s clear that Wyckoff analysis has been on the correct side of GDXJ price action; the bearish side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold’s Technical Exhaustion

January 6, 2024 By in DUST, Federal Reserve, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Richie Naso, Uneducated Economist, ZeroHedge

Divergences, What Happens Next?

Is gold about to blow up?

Blow-up breakout? … No, blow-up breakdown.

As we’ll see in the chart of GLD below, double bearish divergence on the daily.

At time stamp 6:10, here, in the Fed’s own words, rates are not coming down, they’re likely to go higher.

‘We will need to increase the Fed’s funds rates further …’

Not forgetting bonds, may have already reversed, here.

Then, liquidity crunch … yet to appear in full force.

Next, a reminder, herd instinct is strong, link here.

Gold GLD, Daily

On a daily basis, we have a double bearish MACD divergence coupled with a terminating wedge.

As veteran trader Richie Naso says, ‘It’s all about patterns‘.

Let’s add intrigue, here (time stamp 13:58), finding out what happens in a liquidity crisis, i.e., ‘Sell everything.’

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Miner’s Failed Breakout

December 31, 2023 By in Federal Reserve, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, SLV 3 Comments

Focused Attention

It can be said, nothing gets more attention on ‘The Street’, than a failed move.

If so, that’s what we have with the miners, specifically the Junior’s, GDXJ.

There’s been a case of ‘mystery volume’, showing up in the leveraged inverse fund JDST, link here.

Now, we’ll look at the GDXJ, technical indicators, presenting the possibility for a sustained downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

The failed upside breakout is clear.

In addition to the reversal, MACD is posting bearish on both the lines and histogram. Those indicators have just crossed to the downside.

Let’s not forget we’ve also had (potentially) the largest hype, Fed imaginary pivot, move in market history.

For the miners at least (along with silver), they’re saying, if there’s any ‘inflation’ to be had, it’s not happening now.

Maybe later.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Niger News, De-Risks ‘Short’

July 31, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Positions, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Gold Output Miniscule, On World Stage

A military coup in Niger results in gold shipment suspension.

Correspondingly, the mining sector along with gold and silver, are higher.

The real question is, will gold, silver, and the miners continue upward or is this just an excuse to force out the weak (short-positioned) hands?

If we look at the facts, such as Niger’s gold output compared to the rest of the world, it’s miniscule; hardly a blip and production is decreasing.

Add in, the mining sector has not been in a bull market for years, and we’ll surmise, the current move higher has low probability of continuing (not advice, not a recommendation).

For today’s session (as of 3:11 p.m., EST), price action has effectively been slammed into resistance as shown.

Junior Gold Miners GDXJ, Daily

For positioning short (via JDST) this is potentially a low-risk area (not advice, not a recommendation).

There would need to be continued demand for a move higher past the resistance area (blue line).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279